DraftKings Promo Code for Indiana - Get $50 Free Here!

Hello fellow autists,
Just a pre-cursor, this is my first post of any kind on WSB. I would occasionally peruse the forum but was obviously drawn here from the GME craze and love every part of it.
Score Media and Gaming, listed on the TSX as SCR and in the US as TSCRF.
These guys have nothing but positive news coming in the next 12 months and has the ability to at least double in the next half year, if not sooner. These guys are foraying into the sports betting market and are the only players that have a fully intuitive and integrated sports scores/stats application on the market.
So what are the positives/catalysts for Score Media:
- Expansion with the help/investment of Penn Gaming to expand sportsbook in the US. Keep in mind, Penn is the same company that invested in Barstool. The Score is already approved in New Jersey, Indiana and Colorado, with Iowa right around the corner, and Michigan up next.
- Sports betting in Canada is a 14 Billion dollar market. Single wagering is currently illegal, however, there is unity across the aisle between all political parties to amend the criminal code and make single wagering legal. There are currently two bills in play. C-13 and C-218. C-13 second reading is currently delayed, while C-218 is scheduled for the House of Commons on February 24th. Like most countries, they have currently spent a ton of money propping up their respective economies due to COVID-19. It is highly unlikely the Canadian government rejects this massive taxable revenue stream when it needs it the most
- Leader in sports applications for time spent on the app on a monthly basis, beating out heavy hitters like TSN, ESPN, Bleacher Report....literally every other sports media application
- Only major player with an already existing sports news/fantasy application with seamless sportsbook integration. No hopping back and forth, you can wager through the sports app as if you were on the sportsbook
- They are the biggest E-sports media player with over 1 million subscribers on YouTube and that lead is growing
- They are pushing to get listed on the NYSE in the very near future to further growth and investment opportunities.
The only real hinderance that could potentially stop the run of this company is if the Canadian government fails to amend the current laws for single game wagering, which in the current economical climate, I find extremely unlikely. ESPECIALLY with support from all political parties including the Conservatives, New Democratic Party, Bloc Quebecois and most Liberal MP's.
Even in the event that this for some reason failed to pass, it still has access to an enormous US market with the backing of Penn.
I love this stock boys and girls!
​
EDIT 1: Currently with 2500 shares. Started at 1.71 and have been steadily buying dips, now at 1.91 cost average
Sources and Links:
Bill C-218 and Canadian Market: https://financialpost.com/telecom/everything-has-changed-canadian-companies-looking-to-cash-in-as-sports-betting-legalization-spreads
https://www.radionl.com/2021/02/04/bclc-advocating-for-ottawa-to-legalize-single-event-sport-betting/
ScoreBet integration: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201112005877/en/Introducing-BET-SECTION-A-New-Dedicated-Home-for-Betting-on-theScore-App
Penn investment and US plans: https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/01/16/the-faceoff-score-media-vs-draftkings-the-well-known-canadian-online-gaming-site-is-bracing-for-competition-from-its-larger-us-peer-but-its-high-brand-recognition-across-canada-gives-it-home-ice.html
Canadian position compared to rivals and US listing plans: https://www.casino.org/news/thescore-ceo-says-company-in-pole-position-for-canadian-sports-betting/
​

Last year, I bet on Dayton to make the final 4 at +2400 in November, by the time the tournament was cancelled, they were down to +250 if I remember correctly.
Who do you think will be this years sleepers for making the final 4?
In my personal opinion, that Dayton bet may be once in a life time due to the long odds and the fact that there were no clear #1s/favorites.
With that said, the teams I like this year are...
Richmond +800 Arizona State +900 Indiana +900 Stanford +1150
Odds are from draftkings nj
Can’t find any teams right now that I think have a legitimate shot at making the final 4, but I’m still learning about the teams aka watching games. I’m hoping I can find a team I like with better odds.
What say you?

TL/DR: DraftKings offers different promos on the exact same bet to different users, effectively altering the attractiveness of the offer and fundamentally offering certain players better odds.
The Specifics: I’m located in Indiana. Online sports wagering became legal last year. I’ve been active on multiple sites since last December.
Earlier this week I received an email from DraftKings about a promotional offer. The bet being offered was that Zion Williamson would score the first field goal in the Pelicans game at the Lakers (Tuesday, Feb 25). The bet offered +550 odds. The promo is that you would receive $1 towards a free bet for every point, rebound, and assist for Zion that night. The required minimum bet was $75.
Zion’s stats prior to this game were 22.8 pts, 7.2 rebounds, & 2.2 assists. Assuming he would get his averages that night, you could expect about $31 back for a free bet. $75 bet at +550 would yield a profit of $412.50. If you deduct the $31 returned from $75 (ignore for now that the $31 is for a free bet, not cash), you are now starting with a net bet of $44. Getting $412.50 back on a $44 bet changes the odds to about +938. You’re now getting 9.4 to 1 odds for a 9 to 1 actual odds. Not really an attractive offer, so I declined.
I received a text later from a friend asking if I saw the offer. I replied to him “Yea, I saw it, but declined. It might be an OK risk at $50, but not for $75.” He then forwarded to me a copy of his email. His offer was IDENTICAL to mine, except the minimum bet required was only $50.
Now doing the above analysis. A $50 bet at +550 will yield a $275 profit. If you deduct the $31 returned from the $50 bet, you are now starting with a bet of $19. Getting $275 profit on a $19 bet changes the odds to about +1450. So now you’re getting 14.5 to 1 odds for 9 to 1 actual odds. A much more attractive offer. (My math may be a bit off, I’m not sure. I’m still pretty new at doing this type of analysis. Even so, this is obviously a much more attractive offer).
I don’t know why we received different offers, but I’m assuming they used some type of algorithm that took average bet size into consideration. I have been much more active and with larger bets than my friend. I’m guessing the offer was trying to get each of us to bet a bit more, but that is pure speculation.
I emailed support and asked them why they are doing this, spelling out what I did above. Their response was:
“All targeted promotions are ultimately decided and sent out to users at the discretion of our Marketing Team. If you do not like any of the offers that are sent to you, you do not need to participate in anything you do not want to. Please be advised that DraftKings has a strict one user-one account policy and that we do not allow for users to share accounts, payment methods, or discuss details of their accounts with one another.”
Really, we’re not supposed to discuss details of our accounts? Not realistic. We spend time together watching sports, drinking, having cigars, etc. Of course we talk about it.
I withdrew nearly all of my DraftKings money immediately that night. I left a little to finish clearing a current bonus, but I will withdraw that as soon as my bonus is cleared.
I don’t believe that this could happen at a brick and mortar casino. When you walk up to the counter, they do not know those details about you. In my mind, this is definitely unethical and may even be illegal. I get that we were offered the exact same bet (Zion first basked, +550 odds). But the way they structured the promo essentially offers better odds to only some users. That’s why I question legality.
Now I have a significant amount of doubt when looking at DraftKings. I log in with a unique user-id and password. At that moment, they know everything about my betting history. I’m also greeted by a ribbon across the top with current promotions, odds boosts, and various specials. How can I now possibly trust that what I’m seeing when I log in is the same across the board for all users? Are they tweaking the odds seen on my screen vs. what others see based on my usage & history? It would be very easy to do that. In my mind, they’ve already done it with the promotional emails, so why wouldn’t they do it on the screen?
I really don’t know if this is an overreaction on my part or not. But on Tuesday night, I was livid that this happened. I’ve calmed down a bit since then, but I’m still not happy. Also, I plan to contact the Indiana Gaming Commission with the above details. If they are not concerned, then I guess I’m not either. But I won’t be using DraftKings anymore until I’m convinced that this practice is stopped. We have at least 2 other legal options here and, so far, I haven’t seen anything about either of them that gives me concern. Maybe they do the same thing, maybe not. I just haven’t seen any evidence yet.

Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you like this information, I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium.
Yesterday In Review:
Lineup-

Name	Price	DKP	Value	Proj Own	Real Own	Diff
Dame Lillard	7800	34.75	4.5x	15%	24.1%	9.1%
Harden	10900	64.5	5.9x	30%	42.9%	12.9%!!
PJ Tucker	4300	22.75	5.3x	15%	31.3%	16.3%!!
Kevon Looney	3500	20.75	5.9x	7.5%	9.6%	2.1%
Ivica Zubac	4400	39.75	9x	22.5%	32.8%	10.3%1!
Russ Westbrook	10300	53.75	5.2x	22.5%	10.5%	12%!!
Kyle Korver	3300	20.25	6.1x	1%	6.7%	5.7%
Ricky Rubio	5400	31.25	5.8x	20%	44.5%	24.5%
Total	44900	287.75	5.767x

Entry Fees: 25.25
Winnings: 44
Profit: $18.75
ROI: 74.2%
Analysis-
This was a unique slate for a couple of reasons: First, the incredibly soft pricing. It made it a lot more possible to play a couple of the big guys without sacrificing that much. It also let you play a lineup with Harden, Simmons, Embiid, Morris, and Kyrie, which I got off eventually. Second, even with the soft pricing, there was no one projected at more than 35% ownership. This made it more possible to just pick whoever you liked with less regard for how much other people were also on him. Third, There was only one game at a time, for hours. For someone, like me, who didn’t start anyone until HOU/OKC, that gave us a couple extra hours to finalize our roster based on new information.
I knew I was going to play Harden today. That was not a question. He had no reason for being priced that low, and his projected ownership wasn’t high enough. Even if the projected ownership hadn’t been so wrong, I still would have been on Harden under 50% ownership.
The second player I locked in was Zubac. Once McGee was ruled out, I knew Zubac was a lock. As I stated yesterday, McGee was out for 2 games before Chandler got the illness that originally caused him to miss a game. In the first game, Chandler got the start. They decided, though, this did not work and they let Zubac start the 2nd game and let Chandler come off the bench. Given they liked this better, and Chandler was coming off an injury, I knew Zubac would be starting and still getting enough of a run to more than pay for a 4400 salary. I hope you weren't scared off by Chandler. Zubac should have also been at least 50% owned today.
The third/fourth players I locked in were Tucker and Looney. Both punts were underpriced for their recent production and opportunity. I also baked in the possibility of a blow out in the GS/LAL game, which would have given Looney, who could have gotten 20 DKP regardless, some extra run. This also allowed me the flexibility I needed to get a couple more of the stars I wanted.
When the noon games went off, I had a different lineup. I thought the 20% ownership on Giannis opened up lesser ownership on Russ. If Giannis had been 10% owned, I would have stayed with Kyrie/Simmons/Embiid. It turns out that, while my ownership instincts were right, and Westbrook had 38+ DKP in the first half, he left PG13 run the 2nd half and barely finished over 5x.
This led me to look at Dame Lillard. As I said in my analysis, Dame was probably the most incorrectly priced player on the slate. Down from a 10100 high, the 7800 is crazy for someone who could put up an easy 50 DKP in any close game. I was (and am still) convinced the ownership in POUTAH is going to be WAY under what it should be, so I wanted to take a chance at Dame at what could be a 7x spot. And that’s not a ceiling either.
I tried to get some combination of people I liked in the 4000 range, but the possibility of running Dame back with Rubio who, while I wasn’t really high on, was cheap enough and what I thought would be too low an ownership, again (assuming the ownership projections are right, which, pardon my cynicism, they rarely are). If Lillard gets hot, and this game features more points than people would expect (the Jazz play MUCH faster this year) it was too much upside to ignore. This left me with 3400. I had a couple of options, but the fact the they’ve been giving Korver more of a chance, because they like how he spreads out the floor, swung the pendulum to him for my last spot. While there’s still 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter of the LAL/GS game, I am still confident in all 3 of the plays from this game, and all of their abilities to get to 7x tonight.
The Daily Slate:
For those of you who didn’t read my Good Chalk/Bad Chalk article on yesterday’s slate, I did my best to talk about this quasi-metric I use to help me make decisions called Matchup Specific Ceiling. Since I think this is important and relevant to how I analyze things, I am going to cut and paste it today. In the future, if I need to reference this, I will present a direct link:

I want to talk about something before I get into the Durant situation. There is a quasi-metric I use I don’t think i’ve ever seen before that often helps me make decisions. I call it Matchup Specific Ceiling. I would say that the absolute highest a person can score, the General Ceiling, is a factor that doesn't account for any specific thing except "the most points a guy has scored." Even if this ceiling came on a day when the rest of his team was injured, he went against the worst defender in the league, at the highest pace, the "ceiling" never changes. Matchup Specific Ceiling attempts to use the matchup to find what the nightly ceiling for a person would be. My argument would be that, while we consider someone’s ceiling as a static number, there are any number of factors that can bring a potential ceiling down (much like someone’s normal projection is reduced.) I will say, off the bat, It’s really hard for me to explain this. I have been trying for the last few days to get out what I thought was an understandable reasoning but it’s been difficult. So, In order to explain what I mean by this, let’s take a look at Anthony Davis.
When people talk about Brow (and others) we mention his ceiling and his floor and his projections. All of these things are useful as a general tool, but much less useful as a slate specific guide. Brow’s “absolute floor” is, i’d say about 30 points. This season, in games he has played more than 25 minutes, Brow only has one game under 40 DKP, but that was 31 DKP in 38 minutes on Nov 5th at OKC. I’d say his ceiling is about 100 DKP since i’ve seen him put up 100 DKP and a couple 90 DKP performances last year. However, while a general guide, this doesn’t really tell us anything about his specific matchup, just that, if everything goes right, Brow is an unstoppable freak of a beast. With Matchup Specific Ceiling, I try to think about specific factors that can reduce general ceiling in a specific game environment. For example, let’s start his general ceiling at 100 DKP. If he is in a massive pace down matchup, I lower this. If he is going against an amazing defender, I will lower this. If the rest of the team is healthy and will take usage from him, I will lower this. If he’s playing with nagging injuries, I will lower this. If the game has a low O/U, i lower it. If the game is expected to blow out, I lower it. So while we can still expect a completely random 100 DKP from Brow at any point, if the Pelicans roster is completely healthy and he was going against, let’s say, the Molasses Grizzlies who are 1) the Slowest Team in the NBA and 2) Playing Gasol at Center, who is one of the NBA’s top Defenders, I might say his Matchup Specific Ceiling in this case is closer to 75-80. Still a high number, but significantly less than what his General Ceiling could be if all the factors line up correctly (like a beautiful NBA syzygy). Just like we might think his median projection would go from 60 DKP to 52 DKP in a difficult matchup, I have found that factoring in a Matchup Specific Ceiling will help the decision making process. I will say, as well, this is not a function of range. I would say the general range of Brow against Memphis is 40-65DKP, but his Matchup Specific Ceiling (the absolute highest I could see him going in this specific matchup) is 75-80. By the by, since the start of the 2017 season, Brow has played Memphis 4 times and gotten 55.25, 57, 43.5 and 57 DKP.
I think using Matchup Specific Ceiling is a good way of analyzing specific matchups in terms of production likelihood. If Brow was going against, say, the Hawks and Mirotic was out, I would still keep his ceiling close enough to 100 that I know he is an a smash spot and then we just have factor in price and ownership. Let's say, in general, if there aren't any real mitigating factors, a player has a 5% chance of reaching close to their ceiling in any given game (it is much lower, but we are going to use this for the example). If Brow has a Matchup Specific Ceiling of 80 instead of 100 due to a difficult matchup and other factors, the 5% chance of him reaching his general ceiling is going to be significantly reduced to under 1%. So let's use Matchup Specific Ceiling to weigh Brow against.. let's say PG13- someone who has a ceiling of 85 or so, but costs 1500-2000 less as well. If we assume Brow in a bad matchup and PG13 in a good matchup (one where his Matchup Specific Ceiling mirrors his general ceiling)- I have found that in this circumstance, Brow will 100% of the time feature a raw projection that is higher than PG13. Even if PG13 is in a better spot. Even if PG13 has a legitimate shot of outscoring Brow half of the time if this were run 100 times. However, if we consider the Matchup Specific Ceiling, we see 2 things- One, The reduction in Brow's Matchup Specific Ceiling means that PG13 and him have functionally identical ceilings THAT DAY (or, if we take it to the extremes, PG13's can be higher). Two, the odds of PG13 hitting his General Ceiling is significantly higher than Brow's. Again, if you just look at raw points, you would think that Brow is going to outscore PG13 100% of the time, because 100% of the time he is projected to. But if, in a specific matchup, PG13 has a 5% chance of hitting his 85 DKP ceiling, and Brow has a >1% chance of hitting his Matchup Specific Ceiling of 80-85 DKP, it's PG13 that should have a projection advantage that remains unaccounted for.
I bring this up now because I think it’s extremely relevant for how I (and most people) think about the Warriors. What I would call a “lowered Matchup Specific Ceiling” for the Warriors players is also called “too many cooks.” You have seen plenty of analysts talk about how, if Curry is injured you should play Durant and Green, or vice versa in any number of combinations. That is because when you have the 4th, 12th, and 37th highest usage players in the NBA all starting for you, they are all going to eat into each other. USAGE AND PRODUCTION IN THE NBA ARE A ZERO SUM GAMEThere are only a finite number of possessions in a game. The more possessions you can take advantage of, the more DKP you can score (obviously) That is why pace is so important- the higher the pace, the more possessions everyone gets, and the more chances your players will get to score something. Again, though, each and every one of these possessions is a zero sum game. What this means is that, If someone else gets those points, I do not. There are X number of points that can get gained for every possession, and Y number of possessions you get in a game. There is no font from which Warriors players can draw DKP ad infinitum. There are no untimed innings where your team can score as many runs as the pitcher will allow. They are limited by, not only the quality of their own play, but by the quality of the other 3 (and soon to be 4) all stars around them. This means for every 3 that Klay makes, at most Curry, Durant, and Green can get points for 1 assist and there is one less potential possession for them to increase their scores. Every time Curry runs down the court and chucks a 3 from halfcourt, that is points that Durant, Klay, and Dray will never get. In this way, while a Curry or Durant may have GENERAL ceilings of 80-90 DKP, when everyone is healthy it dramatically reduces their matchup specific ceiling before even considering other game factors.
Matchup Specific Ceiling is something I think we all naturally consider when we look at a game, a player, an environment, and a price in deciding what we want. I think that by making it something we can consciously factor in, it may help the maths we are already doing and help us make better picks. Even if this is something that isn’t new, I hope this explains what I mean by Matchup Specific Ceiling when I use it now and in the future, and I hope it gives you a new way to think about your players.

Now we have a neat 10 game slate to look at, so let’s get down to business.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):

• John “Paul” Wall and the Wizards - This is the first game I am looking at, so either the soft pricing from Xmas has carried over, or every wizard except for Beal is underpriced. Wall, who was 9800 3 games ago has fallen to 8600. Detroit is, by far, weakest against PG. Wall has the 19th highest usage rate in the NBA. He will be matched up with Reggie Jackson who is 80th out of 99 in DRPM for PGs. I say 80th out of 99, but the only starters worse than him are Wall himself, LaVine, Sexton, and Trae Young. Otto Porter has already been ruled out. Ariza is in the middle of “operation: run ariza into the ground” and his price just fell 200 to 5400. Markieff is getting run every day and he’s only 4500. He hits 25-30 DKP a lot. Even the punts have fallen, with bit players like Satoransky down to 3700. Not that he’s the strongest play, but he will be seeing enough backup minutes, and has enough usage, 3700 isn’t too hard to pay off.
  
• The Pistons - The Wizards are so, so bad at D. At pretty much every position. They don’t guard the 3 point line. The Pistons are in a really nice pace up spot. The O/U is over 220 (221) and the spread is only DET -5. While there are so many good spots on this slate, i wouldn’t recommend this, but it’s certainly possible that Blake and Drummond stacked with Wall could lock you in to a ton of points where other people will be spending up. I also want to point this out- Here is the pricing for the Pistons- Drummond is 9200, Blake is 9000, R Jax is 5400, Bullock is 4700, Johnson and Brown are 3500. That’s right, there are only 4 players above 3500. Even DK and Vegas expect most of the production to come from those 2 in this matchup
  
• Vucevic - I can already tell you the hardest decision you are going to have to make today is what Center(s) are you going to play. It might be foolish not to play 2 on DK. If you play sites like FD where you can only play 1 C, i really don’t envy you this evening. Ayton is a great rookie. I would be surprised if he wasn’t a perennial all-star in the future. But right now, he can’t even come close to hanging with Vuc. Vuc will play up to 37 minutes or so in close contests. On November 30, Vucevic helped the Magic blow these Suns out, he only needed 32 minutes to put up 25 real points on 11-20 shooting with 15 rebounds. He also had 1 block, which I think is closer to his floor in a matchup against this team with Booker healthy. His price was recently over 9k. 8900 is still a lot, but Vuc has a matchup specific ceiling of 75-85 DKP tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he gets you a relatively effortless 60 DKP.
  
• Devin Booker - As much as I like Vuc, it should be noted before I start talking about Booker, this game has a concerning O/U of 209.5 between the teams 21st and 27th in pace. As great a spot as Booker is in, I would only really consider him if you are the type of player who likes to “run back” your other play. If you are going to play Vuc, I would get Booker in there. ORL is a decent defense. They are basically at or better than average at every position according to DvP. However, the numbers say that, if anything, they can be attacked at SG and SF, which tells us they are probably weak against the perimeter. Also, DJ Augustin is not a good defender. What this tells me is that, no matter what, Booker is going to be in a matchup they can let him take advantage of. If Melton is running point, which will be for a majority of his minutes, he is in the best position possible against this D. If he runs the point, and they let him run iso, ooh nelly. He is fairly priced at 8500 for someone that can put up 50 DKP in this matchup if the game stays close. Again, I doubt I will be on him but, if i DO wind up on Vuc, I will also wind up here and won’t feel badly about it at all.
  
• Kemba/Cody ZelleD’Angelo Russell/Joe Harris - I have told the story of why I am a Nets fan. If you sat me down a year ago and said, “bathrobe.. I want you to picture a game where the Nets play the Hornets in the future. The Hornets have one of the best PGs in the game, with top 10 usage. The Hornets are also playing at the 14th highest pace in the game. The game total is 221 and the Nets are projected to win by 2. How far in the future are you?” I would have said, maybe, 2021? If we were lucky? And yet, here we sit, on Boxing Day of 2018 in this exact situation. On the 15th, Kemba was up to 9300. That game blew out and he only played 25 min, causing his price to fall to 8400 immediately. It still hasn’t sufficiently rebounded and still sits at 8400 a week later. This game is supposed to stay close, and, if it does, it will be on the back of Kemba and, since they are playing the Nets, whoever is at Center. In that circumstance, the play is Cody Zeller (if you think this game blows out, pivot down to Hernangomez). People who only check game logs will see Zeller, who was priced 5300 one week ago, has shit the bed recently, with 8.75, 15, and 18.5 DKP performances. But 2 of those games were over early enough, Zeller only got 20 and 21 minutes (and played against people who can actually defend the C position). The other also devolved into a blowout and Zeller missed out on minutes that may have pushed him over 5x value. The game before that ALSO blew out, but it was against the pathetic C defense of the Lakers. Zeller got only 20 minutes, but provided 26.75 DKP. And the last close game the Hornets played, on 12/14 against the Knicks, Zeller put up 48.25 DKP in 37 minutes. Seriously, I can’t stress this enough, the first thing you should do on any slate is see if the Nets are playing and, if they are, check the Center they will be going against and his price and then just lock him in anyway. The league average is 53.3 DK PPG to the Center position. The only 2 teams allowing over 60 are the Suns at 62.6 (Hello Vuc) and the Nets at 64.3. C’mon. Why am I still pretending there is anyone who disagrees with me here! On the other side of the ball, The Hornets have been weakest against Guards and Wing players, meaning Russell, who is 11th in the NBA in usage, stands out at 7500. Additionally, while I expect people will be over Kurucs more than Harris, due to Kurucs recent performance, his cheaper price point and his better OPRK according to DK, I think taking 3s will be crucial to a winning strategy, and, especially with Crabbe out, Harris is the one they give that responsibility to. Another player that can give you 25-30 real points today at under 5k.
  
• Jrue - This game features a healthy 228.5 total and a spread of DAL -2.5. Dallas is, BY FAR, weakest against guards, and, while Brow is a freak, nearly 12k for someone who will be seeing the fantastic D of Jordan is someone I will look to pivot from. Jrue was over 9000 recently and, in this game environment, he should produce like someone priced over 9000. Mirotic being out also helps add to Jrue’s usage/matchup specific ceiling. With everything up in the air, we may not know who we can play on the Dallas side of the ball, but if you are looking to take advantage of this game, I think Jrue will be your best bet among the big 3 of Randle, Brow and Jrue. I would also posit he will be the least owned.
  
• Rudy Gay - The position you can attack the Nuggets at the most efficiently is PF, where Rudy Gay plays a majority of his minutes. At 5900, given his recent production in limited minutes (due to blow out), Gay is a slam dunk tonight. While the Spurs tend to always win or lose by blow out, this game is projected to get to a decent-but-not-great 214, and stay close with SAS -3. I would wager that some of that is on the back of extra production out of Gay (though DeRozan is also in a fine spot if you want to stack this game).
  
• Kings vs Clippers - Fun Fact- the Kings are the only team out of all 20 that are playing in a back-to-back, traveling back home after this game. Another fun fact- The Kings are 2nd in pace and the Clippers are 9th. A 3rd fun fact- this game is projected for the most points on the slate at 239 with a close enough spread of LAC -5.5. A 4th fun fact- there is not a single starter in this game that is in the top 10 of their position in DRPM. A 5th fun fact- there are no starters in the top 50 in usage in this game. The only player getting decent minutes in the top 50 is Lou Williams who has raised his usage ranking from 6th to 4th since Friday. A 6th fun fact - finally, finally, finally we have a late night hammer game (one that starts 2 hours after the 8th and 9th start at 830) that doesn’t have a bunch of injury news we have to wait for. You know how many people are Questionable, Probable, or Doubtful?? 0. I think that this game will have pretty high ownership, but I think it’s not going to be as high as it should be, either. I just can’t imagine people being OK with paying 8200 for Fox or 7200 for Hield or 6600 for LouWill coming off the bench. There are SO MANY center options, not nearly enough people will be on WCS at only 6500. And after his last dud, plenty of folks will be hesitant to play Montrezl at only 5700. Again, this game is a hair away from an insane total of 240. There are going to be a ton of points put up by a bunch of people. This is not the matchup to fade any of them. Given how weak the Clippers are against PG, and how few people I think will play him at that price, I will have a hard time getting off Fox tomorrow.
  

Situations to avoid (in no particular order):

• Pacers - When I was doing my notes I saw this game, saw the Hawks, and expected to love it. But digging in more (and looking at pricing), I think I will wind up staying away. No one with any credibility will argue there is someone you can’t play against the Hawks. The matchup is so good, with Atlanta being first in pace, and near the bottom in defense, that anyone has a legit chance of going off. This makes me worry about not only the risk of a blowout, but the ability of the Pacers to slow this game down. This is what I imagine happening- Indiana Player takes a shot with 2 seconds left on the shot clock. The Hawks Centers, who can’t hang with Turner when they are all healthy, are all banged up. So if the Pacers player misses, Turner has a good shot at the offensive rebound. He throws it out to Collison or Oladipo and the process repeats. On the other side, the actual decent Pacers D will cause the Hawks to miss shots that, again, Turner will have an easier chance at getting. This will cause the game both to have a low total, a lower number of possessions, but also blow out. If Oladipo wasn’t 8700 and Turner wasn’t 8000 I would be interested, but I see far too many ways for this game to go pear-shaped to take a risk here, not with so many better game environments out there.
  
• Raptors vs. Heat - It is now 12:06am on Boxing Day. The O/U for this game and the Wolves game haven’t come out yet. We know we are waiting for word on Rose before the O/U comes out for the Wolves, but, as far as I know, we are not waiting on any injury news, no one is questionable that carries major weight, and there are no extenuating circumstances that would create hesitation in Vegas. Still, I would expect this to be a defensively minded, low scoring, slow paced game for which there is no one priced at enough of a value that I consider them viable. Ibaka has been called Probable already, and the only news on Kawhi is that he will start playing back-to-backs in January. This isn’t a back-to-back for Toronto either.
  
• Cavs v. Grizzlies - THE PROJECTED TOTAL IS 196.5 WITH A SPREAD OF MEMPHIS -10.5 I will make this simple, don’t play a god damn thing from this game.
  
• Nugs vs Spurs - Apart from Gay, I just don’t like this game between the 25th and 26th paced teams, at prices that are completely fair for everyone. I would be all over this game if everyone was 1000 cheaper, but, as it is, everyone is too fairly priced for this game environment.
  

Situations to monitor:

• Hawks - As I said before, I don’t really have much interest in the IND/ATL game. However, there are a couple of things we have to consider. First, injuries- Lin is Probable, Prince is still Out, Collins is Questionable, Spellman is Out, Dedmon is Probable, Len is Questionable, and Plumlee is Out. That’s a lot of value that could open up. Second, on the Hawks side, if Collins is out, the most expensive player on their entire roster is Trae Young at 5900. It’s not a great spot, but every single one of the Hawks can be in the conversation for punt plays here. If they somehow manage to make this game close, those points are going to come from somewhere, and that somewhere is INSANELY underpriced. Again, this isn’t a place I see myself prioritizing, but I would certainly not complain if I fell into a Bazemore or Huerter if Lin manages to miss. Or Dedmon if he is the only healthy big for the game. He will probably get eaten up by Turner. Or the Hawks can just play small all game, hurting both Dedmon and Turner’s minutes. But he has a legit shot at more than 30 minutes at only 5200 as the only healthy body. Make sure to pay attention to the developments throughout the day to see what value opens up and what it means for ownership and this game’s spread.
  
• Wolves/Bulls - The 2nd game with no current O/U, we are waiting on the 2 questionable tags for Derrick Rose and, somehow, Zach LaVine. I imagine if LaVine is in, he will be limited which would remove all consideration from any guards on this team. Rose is Questionable, but got a practice in with the team on Monday. If he is healthy and not limited, I will go here for 6800, even in what may turn out to be a blowout. What can’t be argued is that, regardless of Rose’s status, KAT is also one of the best plays on the slate. Chicago is weakest against C, KAT is 44th in usage in the NBA, and Chicago has no one that can hang with KAT. While 9400 is a lot, again, there are very few spots better for a player on this slate. I imagine the great options, as well as the threat of blowout, will suppress ownership on KAT. if this game stays close, we could see him approach his ceiling, especially if Rose is limited or out altogether. On the other side, if LaVine is out, Markkanen and Dunn are expensive enough people won’t play them, but too cheap for their production. Also, with Portis out, Robin Lopez has been getting into the 20s in minutes. At 3100, he may be one of the best punts on the slate (especially if this game projects to blow out)
  
• Mavs - In a 228.5 total game where the Mavs are projected to win by -2.5, we are going to have to find some pieces from here. Right now, Smith, Barea, and Matthews are Questionable. If all 3 are out or only Barea plays (I assume Barea will play, and the other two are truly up in the air), Doncic, who’s price has risen to a healthy 8300, will be dramatically underowned for the production he will put up. Again. 228.5 total. 8300 is a lot. And it’d still probably be 1000 too cheap for a matchup against the Pelicans. Basically, everything is going to come down to the news tomorrow. We have to find out who is in, who is out, who is limited, who isn’t and then get what we can out of this game, cause odds are we will need it.
  

Alright! With that, my Boxing Day article has drawn to a close. I hope you are more Mike Tyson today than Glass Joe.
Let’s all get rich today!

Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you like this information, I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium.
Yesterday In Review:
Lineup-

Name	Price	DKP	Value	Proj Own	Real Own	Diff
Dame Lillard	7800	34.75	4.5x	15%	24.1%	9.1%
Harden	10900	64.5	5.9x	30%	42.9%	12.9%!!
PJ Tucker	4300	22.75	5.3x	15%	31.3%	16.3%!!
Kevon Looney	3500	20.75	5.9x	7.5%	9.6%	2.1%
Ivica Zubac	4400	39.75	9x	22.5%	32.8%	10.3%1!
Russ Westbrook	10300	53.75	5.2x	22.5%	10.5%	12%!!
Kyle Korver	3300	20.25	6.1x	1%	6.7%	5.7%
Ricky Rubio	5400	31.25	5.8x	20%	44.5%	24.5%
Total	44900	287.75	5.767x

Entry Fees: 25.25
Winnings: 44
Profit: $18.75
ROI: 74.2%
Analysis-
This was a unique slate for a couple of reasons: First, the incredibly soft pricing. It made it a lot more possible to play a couple of the big guys without sacrificing that much. It also let you play a lineup with Harden, Simmons, Embiid, Morris, and Kyrie, which I got off eventually. Second, even with the soft pricing, there was no one projected at more than 35% ownership. This made it more possible to just pick whoever you liked with less regard for how much other people were also on him. Third, There was only one game at a time, for hours. For someone, like me, who didn’t start anyone until HOU/OKC, that gave us a couple extra hours to finalize our roster based on new information.
I knew I was going to play Harden today. That was not a question. He had no reason for being priced that low, and his projected ownership wasn’t high enough. Even if the projected ownership hadn’t been so wrong, I still would have been on Harden under 50% ownership.
The second player I locked in was Zubac. Once McGee was ruled out, I knew Zubac was a lock. As I stated yesterday, McGee was out for 2 games before Chandler got the illness that originally caused him to miss a game. In the first game, Chandler got the start. They decided, though, this did not work and they let Zubac start the 2nd game and let Chandler come off the bench. Given they liked this better, and Chandler was coming off an injury, I knew Zubac would be starting and still getting enough of a run to more than pay for a 4400 salary. I hope you weren't scared off by Chandler. Zubac should have also been at least 50% owned today.
The third/fourth players I locked in were Tucker and Looney. Both punts were underpriced for their recent production and opportunity. I also baked in the possibility of a blow out in the GS/LAL game, which would have given Looney, who could have gotten 20 DKP regardless, some extra run. This also allowed me the flexibility I needed to get a couple more of the stars I wanted.
When the noon games went off, I had a different lineup. I thought the 20% ownership on Giannis opened up lesser ownership on Russ. If Giannis had been 10% owned, I would have stayed with Kyrie/Simmons/Embiid. It turns out that, while my ownership instincts were right, and Westbrook had 38+ DKP in the first half, he left PG13 run the 2nd half and barely finished over 5x.
This led me to look at Dame Lillard. As I said in my analysis, Dame was probably the most incorrectly priced player on the slate. Down from a 10100 high, the 7800 is crazy for someone who could put up an easy 50 DKP in any close game. I was (and am still) convinced the ownership in POUTAH is going to be WAY under what it should be, so I wanted to take a chance at Dame at what could be a 7x spot. And that’s not a ceiling either.
I tried to get some combination of people I liked in the 4000 range, but the possibility of running Dame back with Rubio who, while I wasn’t really high on, was cheap enough and what I thought would be too low an ownership, again (assuming the ownership projections are right, which, pardon my cynicism, they rarely are). If Lillard gets hot, and this game features more points than people would expect (the Jazz play MUCH faster this year) it was too much upside to ignore. This left me with 3400. I had a couple of options, but the fact the they’ve been giving Korver more of a chance, because they like how he spreads out the floor, swung the pendulum to him for my last spot. While there’s still 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter of the LAL/GS game, I am still confident in all 3 of the plays from this game, and all of their abilities to get to 7x tonight.
The Daily Slate:
For those of you who didn’t read my Good Chalk/Bad Chalk article on yesterday’s slate, I did my best to talk about this quasi-metric I use to help me make decisions called Matchup Specific Ceiling. Since I think this is important and relevant to how I analyze things, I am going to cut and paste it today. In the future, if I need to reference this, I will present a direct link:

I want to talk about something before I get into the Durant situation. There is a quasi-metric I use I don’t think i’ve ever seen before that often helps me make decisions. I call it Matchup Specific Ceiling. I would say that the absolute highest a person can score, the General Ceiling, is a factor that doesn't account for any specific thing except "the most points a guy has scored." Even if this ceiling came on a day when the rest of his team was injured, he went against the worst defender in the league, at the highest pace, the "ceiling" never changes. Matchup Specific Ceiling attempts to use the matchup to find what the nightly ceiling for a person would be. My argument would be that, while we consider someone’s ceiling as a static number, there are any number of factors that can bring a potential ceiling down (much like someone’s normal projection is reduced.) I will say, off the bat, It’s really hard for me to explain this. I have been trying for the last few days to get out what I thought was an understandable reasoning but it’s been difficult. So, In order to explain what I mean by this, let’s take a look at Anthony Davis.
When people talk about Brow (and others) we mention his ceiling and his floor and his projections. All of these things are useful as a general tool, but much less useful as a slate specific guide. Brow’s “absolute floor” is, i’d say about 30 points. This season, in games he has played more than 25 minutes, Brow only has one game under 40 DKP, but that was 31 DKP in 38 minutes on Nov 5th at OKC. I’d say his ceiling is about 100 DKP since i’ve seen him put up 100 DKP and a couple 90 DKP performances last year. However, while a general guide, this doesn’t really tell us anything about his specific matchup, just that, if everything goes right, Brow is an unstoppable freak of a beast. With Matchup Specific Ceiling, I try to think about specific factors that can reduce general ceiling in a specific game environment. For example, let’s start his general ceiling at 100 DKP. If he is in a massive pace down matchup, I lower this. If he is going against an amazing defender, I will lower this. If the rest of the team is healthy and will take usage from him, I will lower this. If he’s playing with nagging injuries, I will lower this. If the game has a low O/U, i lower it. If the game is expected to blow out, I lower it. So while we can still expect a completely random 100 DKP from Brow at any point, if the Pelicans roster is completely healthy and he was going against, let’s say, the Molasses Grizzlies who are 1) the Slowest Team in the NBA and 2) Playing Gasol at Center, who is one of the NBA’s top Defenders, I might say his Matchup Specific Ceiling in this case is closer to 75-80. Still a high number, but significantly less than what his General Ceiling could be if all the factors line up correctly (like a beautiful NBA syzygy). Just like we might think his median projection would go from 60 DKP to 52 DKP in a difficult matchup, I have found that factoring in a Matchup Specific Ceiling will help the decision making process. I will say, as well, this is not a function of range. I would say the general range of Brow against Memphis is 40-65DKP, but his Matchup Specific Ceiling (the absolute highest I could see him going in this specific matchup) is 75-80. By the by, since the start of the 2017 season, Brow has played Memphis 4 times and gotten 55.25, 57, 43.5 and 57 DKP.
I think using Matchup Specific Ceiling is a good way of analyzing specific matchups in terms of production likelihood. If Brow was going against, say, the Hawks and Mirotic was out, I would still keep his ceiling close enough to 100 that I know he is an a smash spot and then we just have factor in price and ownership. Let's say, in general, if there aren't any real mitigating factors, a player has a 5% chance of reaching close to their ceiling in any given game (it is much lower, but we are going to use this for the example). If Brow has a Matchup Specific Ceiling of 80 instead of 100 due to a difficult matchup and other factors, the 5% chance of him reaching his general ceiling is going to be significantly reduced to under 1%. So let's use Matchup Specific Ceiling to weigh Brow against.. let's say PG13- someone who has a ceiling of 85 or so, but costs 1500-2000 less as well. If we assume Brow in a bad matchup and PG13 in a good matchup (one where his Matchup Specific Ceiling mirrors his general ceiling)- I have found that in this circumstance, Brow will 100% of the time feature a raw projection that is higher than PG13. Even if PG13 is in a better spot. Even if PG13 has a legitimate shot of outscoring Brow half of the time if this were run 100 times. However, if we consider the Matchup Specific Ceiling, we see 2 things- One, The reduction in Brow's Matchup Specific Ceiling means that PG13 and him have functionally identical ceilings THAT DAY (or, if we take it to the extremes, PG13's can be higher). Two, the odds of PG13 hitting his General Ceiling is significantly higher than Brow's. Again, if you just look at raw points, you would think that Brow is going to outscore PG13 100% of the time, because 100% of the time he is projected to. But if, in a specific matchup, PG13 has a 5% chance of hitting his 85 DKP ceiling, and Brow has a >1% chance of hitting his Matchup Specific Ceiling of 80-85 DKP, it's PG13 that should have a projection advantage that remains unaccounted for.
I bring this up now because I think it’s extremely relevant for how I (and most people) think about the Warriors. What I would call a “lowered Matchup Specific Ceiling” for the Warriors players is also called “too many cooks.” You have seen plenty of analysts talk about how, if Curry is injured you should play Durant and Green, or vice versa in any number of combinations. That is because when you have the 4th, 12th, and 37th highest usage players in the NBA all starting for you, they are all going to eat into each other. USAGE AND PRODUCTION IN THE NBA ARE A ZERO SUM GAMEThere are only a finite number of possessions in a game. The more possessions you can take advantage of, the more DKP you can score (obviously) That is why pace is so important- the higher the pace, the more possessions everyone gets, and the more chances your players will get to score something. Again, though, each and every one of these possessions is a zero sum game. What this means is that, If someone else gets those points, I do not. There are X number of points that can get gained for every possession, and Y number of possessions you get in a game. There is no font from which Warriors players can draw DKP ad infinitum. There are no untimed innings where your team can score as many runs as the pitcher will allow. They are limited by, not only the quality of their own play, but by the quality of the other 3 (and soon to be 4) all stars around them. This means for every 3 that Klay makes, at most Curry, Durant, and Green can get points for 1 assist and there is one less potential possession for them to increase their scores. Every time Curry runs down the court and chucks a 3 from halfcourt, that is points that Durant, Klay, and Dray will never get. In this way, while a Curry or Durant may have GENERAL ceilings of 80-90 DKP, when everyone is healthy it dramatically reduces their matchup specific ceiling before even considering other game factors.
Matchup Specific Ceiling is something I think we all naturally consider when we look at a game, a player, an environment, and a price in deciding what we want. I think that by making it something we can consciously factor in, it may help the maths we are already doing and help us make better picks. Even if this is something that isn’t new, I hope this explains what I mean by Matchup Specific Ceiling when I use it now and in the future, and I hope it gives you a new way to think about your players.

Now we have a neat 10 game slate to look at, so let’s get down to business.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):

• John “Paul” Wall and the Wizards - This is the first game I am looking at, so either the soft pricing from Xmas has carried over, or every wizard except for Beal is underpriced. Wall, who was 9800 3 games ago has fallen to 8600. Detroit is, by far, weakest against PG. Wall has the 19th highest usage rate in the NBA. He will be matched up with Reggie Jackson who is 80th out of 99 in DRPM for PGs. I say 80th out of 99, but the only starters worse than him are Wall himself, LaVine, Sexton, and Trae Young. Otto Porter has already been ruled out. Ariza is in the middle of “operation: run ariza into the ground” and his price just fell 200 to 5400. Markieff is getting run every day and he’s only 4500. He hits 25-30 DKP a lot. Even the punts have fallen, with bit players like Satoransky down to 3700. Not that he’s the strongest play, but he will be seeing enough backup minutes, and has enough usage, 3700 isn’t too hard to pay off.
  
• The Pistons - The Wizards are so, so bad at D. At pretty much every position. They don’t guard the 3 point line. The Pistons are in a really nice pace up spot. The O/U is over 220 (221) and the spread is only DET -5. While there are so many good spots on this slate, i wouldn’t recommend this, but it’s certainly possible that Blake and Drummond stacked with Wall could lock you in to a ton of points where other people will be spending up. I also want to point this out- Here is the pricing for the Pistons- Drummond is 9200, Blake is 9000, R Jax is 5400, Bullock is 4700, Johnson and Brown are 3500. That’s right, there are only 4 players above 3500. Even DK and Vegas expect most of the production to come from those 2 in this matchup
  
• Vucevic - I can already tell you the hardest decision you are going to have to make today is what Center(s) are you going to play. It might be foolish not to play 2 on DK. If you play sites like FD where you can only play 1 C, i really don’t envy you this evening. Ayton is a great rookie. I would be surprised if he wasn’t a perennial all-star in the future. But right now, he can’t even come close to hanging with Vuc. Vuc will play up to 37 minutes or so in close contests. On November 30, Vucevic helped the Magic blow these Suns out, he only needed 32 minutes to put up 25 real points on 11-20 shooting with 15 rebounds. He also had 1 block, which I think is closer to his floor in a matchup against this team with Booker healthy. His price was recently over 9k. 8900 is still a lot, but Vuc has a matchup specific ceiling of 75-85 DKP tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he gets you a relatively effortless 60 DKP.
  
• Devin Booker - As much as I like Vuc, it should be noted before I start talking about Booker, this game has a concerning O/U of 209.5 between the teams 21st and 27th in pace. As great a spot as Booker is in, I would only really consider him if you are the type of player who likes to “run back” your other play. If you are going to play Vuc, I would get Booker in there. ORL is a decent defense. They are basically at or better than average at every position according to DvP. However, the numbers say that, if anything, they can be attacked at SG and SF, which tells us they are probably weak against the perimeter. Also, DJ Augustin is not a good defender. What this tells me is that, no matter what, Booker is going to be in a matchup they can let him take advantage of. If Melton is running point, which will be for a majority of his minutes, he is in the best position possible against this D. If he runs the point, and they let him run iso, ooh nelly. He is fairly priced at 8500 for someone that can put up 50 DKP in this matchup if the game stays close. Again, I doubt I will be on him but, if i DO wind up on Vuc, I will also wind up here and won’t feel badly about it at all.
  
• Kemba/Cody ZelleD’Angelo Russell/Joe Harris - I have told the story of why I am a Nets fan. If you sat me down a year ago and said, “bathrobe.. I want you to picture a game where the Nets play the Hornets in the future. The Hornets have one of the best PGs in the game, with top 10 usage. The Hornets are also playing at the 14th highest pace in the game. The game total is 221 and the Nets are projected to win by 2. How far in the future are you?” I would have said, maybe, 2021? If we were lucky? And yet, here we sit, on Boxing Day of 2018 in this exact situation. On the 15th, Kemba was up to 9300. That game blew out and he only played 25 min, causing his price to fall to 8400 immediately. It still hasn’t sufficiently rebounded and still sits at 8400 a week later. This game is supposed to stay close, and, if it does, it will be on the back of Kemba and, since they are playing the Nets, whoever is at Center. In that circumstance, the play is Cody Zeller (if you think this game blows out, pivot down to Hernangomez). People who only check game logs will see Zeller, who was priced 5300 one week ago, has shit the bed recently, with 8.75, 15, and 18.5 DKP performances. But 2 of those games were over early enough, Zeller only got 20 and 21 minutes (and played against people who can actually defend the C position). The other also devolved into a blowout and Zeller missed out on minutes that may have pushed him over 5x value. The game before that ALSO blew out, but it was against the pathetic C defense of the Lakers. Zeller got only 20 minutes, but provided 26.75 DKP. And the last close game the Hornets played, on 12/14 against the Knicks, Zeller put up 48.25 DKP in 37 minutes. Seriously, I can’t stress this enough, the first thing you should do on any slate is see if the Nets are playing and, if they are, check the Center they will be going against and his price and then just lock him in anyway. The league average is 53.3 DK PPG to the Center position. The only 2 teams allowing over 60 are the Suns at 62.6 (Hello Vuc) and the Nets at 64.3. C’mon. Why am I still pretending there is anyone who disagrees with me here! On the other side of the ball, The Hornets have been weakest against Guards and Wing players, meaning Russell, who is 11th in the NBA in usage, stands out at 7500. Additionally, while I expect people will be over Kurucs more than Harris, due to Kurucs recent performance, his cheaper price point and his better OPRK according to DK, I think taking 3s will be crucial to a winning strategy, and, especially with Crabbe out, Harris is the one they give that responsibility to. Another player that can give you 25-30 real points today at under 5k.
  
• Jrue - This game features a healthy 228.5 total and a spread of DAL -2.5. Dallas is, BY FAR, weakest against guards, and, while Brow is a freak, nearly 12k for someone who will be seeing the fantastic D of Jordan is someone I will look to pivot from. Jrue was over 9000 recently and, in this game environment, he should produce like someone priced over 9000. Mirotic being out also helps add to Jrue’s usage/matchup specific ceiling. With everything up in the air, we may not know who we can play on the Dallas side of the ball, but if you are looking to take advantage of this game, I think Jrue will be your best bet among the big 3 of Randle, Brow and Jrue. I would also posit he will be the least owned.
  
• Rudy Gay - The position you can attack the Nuggets at the most efficiently is PF, where Rudy Gay plays a majority of his minutes. At 5900, given his recent production in limited minutes (due to blow out), Gay is a slam dunk tonight. While the Spurs tend to always win or lose by blow out, this game is projected to get to a decent-but-not-great 214, and stay close with SAS -3. I would wager that some of that is on the back of extra production out of Gay (though DeRozan is also in a fine spot if you want to stack this game).
  
• Kings vs Clippers - Fun Fact- the Kings are the only team out of all 20 that are playing in a back-to-back, traveling back home after this game. Another fun fact- The Kings are 2nd in pace and the Clippers are 9th. A 3rd fun fact- this game is projected for the most points on the slate at 239 with a close enough spread of LAC -5.5. A 4th fun fact- there is not a single starter in this game that is in the top 10 of their position in DRPM. A 5th fun fact- there are no starters in the top 50 in usage in this game. The only player getting decent minutes in the top 50 is Lou Williams who has raised his usage ranking from 6th to 4th since Friday. A 6th fun fact - finally, finally, finally we have a late night hammer game (one that starts 2 hours after the 8th and 9th start at 830) that doesn’t have a bunch of injury news we have to wait for. You know how many people are Questionable, Probable, or Doubtful?? 0. I think that this game will have pretty high ownership, but I think it’s not going to be as high as it should be, either. I just can’t imagine people being OK with paying 8200 for Fox or 7200 for Hield or 6600 for LouWill coming off the bench. There are SO MANY center options, not nearly enough people will be on WCS at only 6500. And after his last dud, plenty of folks will be hesitant to play Montrezl at only 5700. Again, this game is a hair away from an insane total of 240. There are going to be a ton of points put up by a bunch of people. This is not the matchup to fade any of them. Given how weak the Clippers are against PG, and how few people I think will play him at that price, I will have a hard time getting off Fox tomorrow.
  

Situations to avoid (in no particular order):

• Pacers - When I was doing my notes I saw this game, saw the Hawks, and expected to love it. But digging in more (and looking at pricing), I think I will wind up staying away. No one with any credibility will argue there is someone you can’t play against the Hawks. The matchup is so good, with Atlanta being first in pace, and near the bottom in defense, that anyone has a legit chance of going off. This makes me worry about not only the risk of a blowout, but the ability of the Pacers to slow this game down. This is what I imagine happening- Indiana Player takes a shot with 2 seconds left on the shot clock. The Hawks Centers, who can’t hang with Turner when they are all healthy, are all banged up. So if the Pacers player misses, Turner has a good shot at the offensive rebound. He throws it out to Collison or Oladipo and the process repeats. On the other side, the actual decent Pacers D will cause the Hawks to miss shots that, again, Turner will have an easier chance at getting. This will cause the game both to have a low total, a lower number of possessions, but also blow out. If Oladipo wasn’t 8700 and Turner wasn’t 8000 I would be interested, but I see far too many ways for this game to go pear-shaped to take a risk here, not with so many better game environments out there.
  
• Raptors vs. Heat - It is now 12:06am on Boxing Day. The O/U for this game and the Wolves game haven’t come out yet. We know we are waiting for word on Rose before the O/U comes out for the Wolves, but, as far as I know, we are not waiting on any injury news, no one is questionable that carries major weight, and there are no extenuating circumstances that would create hesitation in Vegas. Still, I would expect this to be a defensively minded, low scoring, slow paced game for which there is no one priced at enough of a value that I consider them viable. Ibaka has been called Probable already, and the only news on Kawhi is that he will start playing back-to-backs in January. This isn’t a back-to-back for Toronto either.
  
• Cavs v. Grizzlies - THE PROJECTED TOTAL IS 196.5 WITH A SPREAD OF MEMPHIS -10.5 I will make this simple, don’t play a god damn thing from this game.
  
• Nugs vs Spurs - Apart from Gay, I just don’t like this game between the 25th and 26th paced teams, at prices that are completely fair for everyone. I would be all over this game if everyone was 1000 cheaper, but, as it is, everyone is too fairly priced for this game environment.
  

Situations to monitor:

• Hawks - As I said before, I don’t really have much interest in the IND/ATL game. However, there are a couple of things we have to consider. First, injuries- Lin is Probable, Prince is still Out, Collins is Questionable, Spellman is Out, Dedmon is Probable, Len is Questionable, and Plumlee is Out. That’s a lot of value that could open up. Second, on the Hawks side, if Collins is out, the most expensive player on their entire roster is Trae Young at 5900. It’s not a great spot, but every single one of the Hawks can be in the conversation for punt plays here. If they somehow manage to make this game close, those points are going to come from somewhere, and that somewhere is INSANELY underpriced. Again, this isn’t a place I see myself prioritizing, but I would certainly not complain if I fell into a Bazemore or Huerter if Lin manages to miss. Or Dedmon if he is the only healthy big for the game. He will probably get eaten up by Turner. Or the Hawks can just play small all game, hurting both Dedmon and Turner’s minutes. But he has a legit shot at more than 30 minutes at only 5200 as the only healthy body. Make sure to pay attention to the developments throughout the day to see what value opens up and what it means for ownership and this game’s spread.
  
• Wolves/Bulls - The 2nd game with no current O/U, we are waiting on the 2 questionable tags for Derrick Rose and, somehow, Zach LaVine. I imagine if LaVine is in, he will be limited which would remove all consideration from any guards on this team. Rose is Questionable, but got a practice in with the team on Monday. If he is healthy and not limited, I will go here for 6800, even in what may turn out to be a blowout. What can’t be argued is that, regardless of Rose’s status, KAT is also one of the best plays on the slate. Chicago is weakest against C, KAT is 44th in usage in the NBA, and Chicago has no one that can hang with KAT. While 9400 is a lot, again, there are very few spots better for a player on this slate. I imagine the great options, as well as the threat of blowout, will suppress ownership on KAT. if this game stays close, we could see him approach his ceiling, especially if Rose is limited or out altogether. On the other side, if LaVine is out, Markkanen and Dunn are expensive enough people won’t play them, but too cheap for their production. Also, with Portis out, Robin Lopez has been getting into the 20s in minutes. At 3100, he may be one of the best punts on the slate (especially if this game projects to blow out)
  
• Mavs - In a 228.5 total game where the Mavs are projected to win by -2.5, we are going to have to find some pieces from here. Right now, Smith, Barea, and Matthews are Questionable. If all 3 are out or only Barea plays (I assume Barea will play, and the other two are truly up in the air), Doncic, who’s price has risen to a healthy 8300, will be dramatically underowned for the production he will put up. Again. 228.5 total. 8300 is a lot. And it’d still probably be 1000 too cheap for a matchup against the Pelicans. Basically, everything is going to come down to the news tomorrow. We have to find out who is in, who is out, who is limited, who isn’t and then get what we can out of this game, cause odds are we will need it.
  

Alright! With that, my Boxing Day article has drawn to a close. I hope you are more Mike Tyson today than Glass Joe.
Let’s all get rich today!