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GME Options Chain Update: Gamma Squeeze and New Strikes
Edit: Fuck you auto mod. I originally posted at 2 AM but was removed since G*TS is apparently an unrelated microcap TLDR: MM's may have to offload shares on Monday but call volume will likely pressure prices up EOW. New strikes up to $115 will be offered. Unique opportunity for the largest gamma squeeze of all time. I will try to keep this DD brief. Most the sub is filled with garbage about GME by people who think "shorts expire" and don't know what float means. I'll try to avoid talking about things I don't understand and if you find a mistake or have a different thesis please comment. Options Chain Summary Last week with the significant price action on Friday, only three strikes 65-75 expired OTM and triggered a massive gamma squeeze. Gamma squeezes don't occur in a vacuum and need a spark like high options volume or purchasing. On Friday, based on the buy sizes and giant green dildos, a margin call or large institutional buy likely triggered the sqoze. At open on Monday, more strikes will be added to the chain up to $115 because of the price increase. When those contracts are added to the chain ending 29 JAN 21 , this will change some of the data I used but I will probably update on Monday when OI is updated. Intraday Price and Volume 22 JAN 21 If you look at the chain as of Friday close, the overall OI for puts and calls is very low. I believe this is dangerous for Monday coming off a Friday when a heavy volume of calls expired ITM. I know you degenerates don't have the money to exercise so you sell your calls. Typically a institution will buy your contract and arbitrages the sale price and intrinsic value of shares. If the option writer buys back the contract or the holder doesn't exercise they have to unwind their hedges and will have some shares to dump. This won't crater the stock but a dip after open is reasonable. Delta Hedging Most of the FDs in this Casino are written by Market Makers like GT*S or Jane Street. Contrary to a lot of commentary here, MMs are behind the curtains manipulating prices to fuck your positions. In short, MM's try to stay neutral to directional positions by hedging and make money from scalping the Bid/Ask and extrinsic decay. To hedge any directional positions, they manage their position delta. Delta is the how much your option increases in value for $1 change in the underlying. Think about this as the % chance your option expires itm. A ITM option has a delta of 1 and true FD has a delta of 0. Makes sense? MM's hedge their delta exposure by buying and shorting shares of the underlying. Options can be used too for hedging the greeks but isn't important here. To stay completely delta neutral, the options writer will buy or short (Delta of Contract*Number of Contracts*100) For a more thorough explanation of Market Making and Hedging, check out this video or PDF Weekly Option Chain 29 JAN 21 For this week the OI is still low but will see more volume as degenerate get their lotto tickets. Overall you can see Market Makers are net positive delta so to be delta neutral, they are required to purchase 3,550,000 shares. The OI for puts and calls is relatively close but after Friday, the delta of puts drilled and most calls neared 1 forcing MM's to heavily purchase shares. Distribution of Options 29 JAN 21 I believe if retail FOMO continues along with degenerates buying weeklies, prices will continue to gamma squeeze. A good metric is the volume on calls +50 strikes intraday. I will be using this to adjust my positions. Gamma Squeeze A gamma squeeze is fueled by this delta hedging. MM's covering their short call positions inadvertently push the price higher by purchasing shares to stay delta neutral. On Friday we saw a gamma squeeze enter a feedback loop until the circuit breakers hit at +69%. It's essentially gasoline on a fire. As of Friday, 29 Jan OI was low but volume will pick up early on in the week, setting up for another gamma squeeze of massive proportions before Friday. Closing at $61 Friday may trigger some margin calls or push shorts to get out. IF they do gamma+short covering can set up another 50% pretty easily. The one X factor here is there shelf offering filed by the GME board. Selling $100MM of shares into such elevated buy volume would be tempting for the board. Ryan Cohen is very shareholder friendly but we could see such an offering to raise capital. Melvin Capital and Short Losses To get a better picture of what the shorts have been up to, I asked around to a few institutional people. Essentially what I got back was the WSJ article detailing 15% YTD losses was most likely correct or understating their losses after Fridays price action. Some of those losses were incurred from other short positions. If they were smart their put expired positions would have been a synthetic short or used calls to hedge. According to their 13F they didn't do either so their losses could be much more significant. There's not a chance short GME was larger than 3% of their total AUM so they won't guh anytime soon. Jan 15 Short interest will be released on Wednesday, 27 which will give a better picture of short activity since the price surges. Edit Premarket Monday: So the underlying blew up 50% to a high of $136 before settling at $90. I will still with my positions because 115s are close to the money currently, I believe we’ll see a lot of volume around that strike and will further squeeze the stock. Positions: Buying a spread of OTM calls strike 75 to 100 exp 1/29. If I see enough call volume especially far OTM, I will probably double down on the 100s. After this many correct calls I tend to blow up my account but fuck it Edit: Forgot 🚀🚀
What's up dingleberry danglers! It's ya boy, Agent00Funk, here to welcome you back to another edition of the TendieDome! That's right, its time for another wall of text for your literary entertainment, definitely not for your financial advice. By popular request, I even figured out how to add pictures. Keanu help us. If you're as illiterate as a Mississippi high school drop-out, go ahead and skip to the bottom for the TL;DR and my positions. I don't wanna hear no bitching about your lack of attention span, alright, because I will call you a slack-jawed cousin-fucker. Bet. So staple your eye shades open, Clockwork Orange style, and get ready to be blown away by how one of America's worst companies is gonna make you tendies. Those of you that have been following my DDs know that I'm not about rocket ships, I'm not gonna send you to the moon or Mars (but Uranus is in the cards). No, no, no, my sweet little summer autists, my plays are are all about steady accumulation of tendies. The goal? Acquire enough tendies so you can buy a first class ticket on whatever rocket a superior autist says is launching. Most of my plays are LONG term HOLDs, today's is a slight exception as we're looking for a Q3 or Q4 pay out. Maybe one day I'll grace you with my casino plays, but before I do that, we gotta make sure you're bringing enough dough to the paste-eating competition. And I sure as shit don't want y'all dick whistlers to blame me when the casino play doesn't pan out, so we're sticking with safe territory for now. Alright, now that I've masturbated enough and have that post-nut clarity to tell you why you should be putting money in CMCSA. That's right you little chode yodlers, muthafucking Comcast. Lots of you are probably already their customer, and have evolved to instantly wanna shit on Comcast. I don't blame you, they seriously suck, bunch of fucking assholes. But you know what sucky fucky assholes do? Make stacks on stacks on stacks. They're fucking you, AND taking your money. These guys have prostitution really figured out....you don't even know that you their ho. So, let's channel our inner Charlie, and do some Pepe Silivia deep dive due diligence. That's right, it's not just a DD like your wife's bra, we're going for the DDDD! This is us rn. Would you take financial advice from this guy? So, CMCSA....where do even start? The highway-robbery pricing (tendies)? The understaffed and overworked employees (tendies)? The geographical monopolies they hold? (tendies). The reliance on dumbfuck Boomers as a customer base (I wanna hear the choir sing it with me now:...tendies)? No, no, no....you may be retarded, but you know when you're getting fucked, and you know you pay for getting fucked anyway, just like everyone else (tendies). fr fr CMCSA basically makes money in two ways: 1.) fucking you. 2.) fucking others. But wait! There's more! They have even more ways of taking money from you and everybody else, and if your goldfish attention span can handle it, you'll see what I'm talking about. Oh and charts. I do have charts. Fuck, me and Billie Eyelash have been spending so much time in the Crayon Room together, those charts have so many colors, most of them green. Before I bust out these fucking rainbow crayons, let's cover some ground facts. For the Europoors among us, you may be shocked to find out that most Americans have NO CHOICE in who their ISP is. I know, cue the Sarah McLachlan and charity pitch, it's fucking pathetic. Free markets, my ass. But you know what that means? Tendies. That's right, Comcast has the most little fiefdoms of all the ISPs in the land. Only $T can compete, but here's the kicker: people have been ditching $T for CMCSA. Why? Because $T offers DSL in a gigabit world, that's locked inside because of a pandemic, re-discovering what made cyber sex so awkward over AIM, but now with cameras! (All the real Gs were around for that A/S/L/ convo, shit was Catfish City). So, while all you fuckwads are going to work in your Superman pajamas on Zoom, more people signed up for that sweet, sweet broadband., so they too could go to work in their Cookie Monster pajamas. (Mine are camouflaged, my co-workers don't even know I'm there, they just see square burger patties getting flipped on the griddle and are like "woooooooooooooaaah") I know you bell-end ringers don't read, but you can read a little more about subscriber increases here: (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/comcast-cmcsa-q4-2020-earnings.html) Did you notice that link? CNBC? Reputable shit, right? I know some of you motherfuckers pay CMCSA like $200/month just to watch that shit, along with 400 other channels of garbage. That's right Europoors, CMCSA isn't just an ISP with a monopoly, it's a cable TV provider with a monopoly (tendies). And you know what else? They own CNBC. Fuck, they own ALL of NBC. Now, I know, some of you more erudite ballsack gargglers already know this, but let's let the retards catch up. Because, guess what you molasses racers, CMCSA also owns Universal Studios. For the nerds in the front row, shut the fuck up, we already know you're smart. Are you seeing this shit? Like, seriously, are you piecing this shit together? CMCSA owns the pipes, CMCSA owns the shit in them, large swatches of America have no choice except CMCSA, and more people need those shitty ass pipes, because it's way fucking better than the old ass copper $T is selling. "Alright," you say, "CMCSA would've been a good pandemic play, what's the bull case looking forward?" Well tug my dick and call me Rick, that's why we're here. I can already tell this is going become a damn book of retardation, so I'm going to add some chapters. TV Subscriptions. We've got the finest stock art, just for you This is the weakest part of CMCSA, everyone is cutting the cord, they're sticking to streaming, but if you check that link above, you'll see that they actually managed to add over 400k new subscribers. Sure, some of that can be attributed to people being bored as fuck at home during the pandemic and figuring they'll get 400 channels of dog vomit to help ease their soul-crushing ennui. There aren't a lot of reasons to expect these growth figures to continue, except one, which I will get to in a bit, but I do think they'll be a bit sticky. Why? Fucking Boomers man. Boomers have this very strange addiction to channel surfing. I don't get it. They just sit there and flip through 400 channels at 10 channels/second for hours on hours on hours. They aren't even watching anything, just surfing. Don't believe me? Go ask a Boomer near you how much time they spend channel surfing and why they won't give it up. They love complaining about it too: "all these fucking channels, and nothing to watch." If you point out that they could just STREAM something they want to watch, they just go right back to surfing, because they don't actually know what they want to watch. TV may be going the way of the dinosaur, but there are still lots of dinosaurs surfing channels for now, hell, they even picked up more. How? Is it all just bored people signing up for TV during the pandemic? Maybe, but I've got another theory about geography! Internet Subscriptions Yup. So, even though people may be cutting the cord, they can't do that without internet, and...well....yeah, CMCSA may see declines from TV subscriptions, but definitely not internet subscriptions, not this year anyway. Again, I refer to the earnings report to show you jello heads the subscription numbers. I'm not going to belabor this point much, surely you know people need broadband, and CMCSA is the only game in town in many places. Geographic Monopolies in Growth Markets Awwww yiiissss gimme Park Place If you've been reading along thus far, congratulations, you'll remember that we talked about the little fiefdom monopolies these guys have across the country. So, where are those fiefdoms located? Right here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_communities_served_by_Comcast Now, I won't bust out the charts for population growth in all of these, because there is a fuck ton, but even just looking at Alabama (Roll Tide), you see that 80% of their markets in that state are growth markets, and only 1 is showing population decline.... and they're only in 6 markets there! Now, they don't hold 80% of growth markets in every state, but they hold a lot. This means that as these cities attract more people and grow, those poor saps will have no choice but to sign up for CMCSA if they want TV and/or internet. Yes, goons and goblins, CMCSA doesn't just have a captive audience, it has a captive audience in places where the audience is growing. Do I really need to spell out how these equates to tendies? Want to know something even better? Biden's infrastructure plan includes heaps of money for increasing broadband access to underserved and rural communities, communities that will then become part of CMCSA's growing fiefdoms. Streaming Trying to catch my shows fresh from the stream with my bare hands CMCSA has also launched its own streaming service, Peacock, and if you look at the CNBC link, you can see subscriber numbers for that as well. Seeing the writing on the wall, CMCSA has gotten in on making money from cord-cutters. Again, CMCSA owns the entire NBC and Universal Studios catalog, but it really doesn't matter because just like a bunch of people signed up for Disney+ just to watch The Mandalorian, a bunch of people have and will sign up for Peacock just to watch The Office. And yeah, it fucking sucks that before you could have Hulu and Netflix and not need any more streaming services, that they are Balkanizing the streaming space just like they did with cable, and now you need like 20 different apps, but go look at the Universal/NBC catalog and tell me that you wouldn't pay $5/month for access to it if you couldn't get it anywhere else. I mean shit. WWE is exclusive to Peacock...do I need to say more? Do you smell-l-l-l-l-l what The Funk is cooking? Theme Parks and the Recovery Who else re-installing RCT2? Here's a kick in the pants that you didn't expect. Universal studios. That's right, these motherfuckers got their own janky-ass wannabe Disney World. Hell, if anyone ever does open a Jurassic Park, it'll be CMCSA because they've got the rights to it and know how to run a theme park. How much do they add? About $6 billion/year (pre 2020). How much did they make in 2020? $1.8 billion. There's $4 billion set to come back into the pot. But wait, there's more! They're going to open their largest park ever this year, been building it since 2016, and the opening has been confirmed despite the Rona. Where? In Beijing, so you know the place is gonna be huge and full. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Studios_Beijing So as the vaccine gets out there, the world returns to "normal" and people go spend absurd amounts of money to slide across bits of metal, not only will missing revenue return, but CMCSA is ready to make the pot bigger. When is it opening? May. This is important because we're not looking for a pay-out until after the park has opened. If you feel more retarded after having read this far, imagine how retarded I am for having written all that linguistic linguini. So, now that we know what the bull case for CMCSA is, let's bust out those crayons and look at some charts to get the full confirmation-bias effect and look at possible entry and exit points. CRAYON ROOM TIME! I don't know if this will be mo bigga when you fumble fucks look at it, I'm too retarded to figure out formatting. I really don't know fuck about shit when it comes to numbers, but I do know the lines look pretty. So, let's run this down real fast. This is a weekly chart going back to 2018. I wanted to go that far back to show you two things. 1.) CMCSA recovered from a dip in 2018 much like it has from the COVID dip, and is on pace to match or exceed it's growth average since 2018. 2.) Annual dividend increases of around 10%. Looking at the chart, there is no reason not to expect the same announcement towards the end of the year, and in fact the next quarterly dividend has already received the increase. I've got a few other lines in there, but what I want to point out is how much the price rises above the moving price average, weather measured as a simple moving price average or within Bollinger Bands. Dips below the average tend to recover and be above the average again within 2-3 weeks. Crayons are awesome. I should invest in Crayola. Now let's look a little at demand. Again, this is a weekly chart, but this time we're mostly going to be focusing on the right side of the chart. The top chart is a Stochastic Full measurement, the two horizontal blue lines represent oversold (top) and overbought (bottom). Generally speaking, if a stock is oversold, the price goes down, people buy, and the price goes up, leading to a position of it being overbought where people sell for profit, price goes down, and rinse and repeat. The squiggly lines are the two measurements of where the stock is in relation to being oversold or overbought. So what is it showing us? That the stock was recently oversold, and is heading towards being overbought. Best time to get in would've been 2 weeks ago, but try posting a DD on WSB back then that wasn't about the holy trinity cult. So what does this mean? Well, buying now could lead to a little rise followed by a little dip as it fluctuates between oversold and overbought. The second graphs is the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) this chart essentially measures sentiment, if it's up, it's bullish, if it's down, its bearish. I know some of you eggheads will correct me with finer points, but I don't have time to write a textbook that I'm incapable of understanding. As you can see, it has leveled off, which makes me believe it will dip, this also corresponds to it's movements in the Stochastic measurements. So don't buy at open, watch it for a bit, it might dip. The third graph...I have no fucking clue y'all. It had the word "projection" in it, and the line is pointing up, and that was good enough for me. Timing and Prices If you can get in for under $50, do it. I'm not sure if it will dip that low again soon, but it's within possibility. Calls aren't terribly priced, they're not the value they were 2 weeks ago when I first wanted to write this, but they're still a good value, especially for July and beyond, which is the timeframe we're looking at for an exit. Or not. I mean, you could sit on this shit forever and not really have to worry, which is another thing I like about it. But I have calls for July and October and may even pick up the 2022 LEAPs. We're looking for two events to provide a nice pop for our exits; the new park opening and Q3 earnings report that should include initial earnings from the parks, both new and re-opened. We want to see if the customers are going back to the parks, and returning that missing money into the pot, and we want to see how growth of broadband customers has increased. But again, don't sweat too much about timing and prices, this thing just keeps marching upwards. Positions CMCSA Shares CMCSA 16 July $50c CMCSA 15 Oct $52.5c Tl;dr CMCSA. No rockets, but good value. 7/10 Would buy again. DISCLAIMER: I don't know what I'm doing, you listen to me at your own peril, please leave me alone SEC.
Nyck Caution - Anywhere But Here (featuring Joey Bada$$, Denzel Curry, Kota the Friend, CJ Fly, GASHI + more) NYUON - 4FROMNYUON UnoTheActivist - Unoverse Since99 - CARBON COPY (featuring Tony Shhnow & 10kdunkin) Marco Polo - MP On The MP: The Beat Tape Vol. 1 K.A.A.N - Long Time No See (featuring Dax & Bleverly Hills) 704Chop - Carolina Superstar 2nd Generation Wu - Hereditary (featuring Inspectah Deck + more) Healy - Tungsten Eladio Carrión - Monarca (featuring J Balvin + more) ZAYN - Nobody Is Listening (featuring Syd & Devlin) Ashnikko - DEMIDEVIL (featuring Kelis, Princess Nokia & Grimes) Project Youngin - Bigger Blessings (featuring Pooh Shiesty, Hotboii, Lil C & Trapboy Freddy) Boogotti Kasino - The Gamble (featuring OMB Bloodbath + more) G Fredo - Only the 3rd Chapter SpaceGhostPurrp - Kill Ever Soul I See Mister CR & Westcoast Kreations Presents: Project Blowed All-Stars (featuring Myka-9 + more) Antahlyzah - The Ceremonial Gifted Sleatford Mods - Spare Ribs Lukah - When The Black Hand Touches You not yet posted: wowflower - Abel's Planet
EPs
Gabriel Garzón-Montano - Spotify Singles dvsn - Amusing Her Feeings (featuring Miguel) Cdot Huncho - H5 Deluxe Araabmuzik - TRAP SOUL Pollari & Tony Shhnow - Evil Twins WHITE JOHN - CASE STILL PENDING (featuring OMB Peezy, Rucci & Big Sad 1900) Chavis Chandler - Have a Little FUN, sometime. RAY FUEGO - HEMELSCHIP
Singles
Juice WRLD & Young Thug - Bad Boy Lice (Aesop Rock & Homeboy Sandman) - Ask Anyone Ameer Vann - IDFIATOK Benny the Butcher - Bills Mafia Anthem Ariana Grande - 34+35 (feat. Megan Thee Stallion & Doja Cat) Flo Milli & Kenny Beats - Roaring 20s Family Bvsiness (Crooked I) - Skip This Ad (Produced by Eminem) M24 x Fivio Foreign - Fashion DaBaby - Masterpiece Night Lovell - A Lot (feat. Lindasson & Ftg. Reggie) DIVINE - Jungle Mantra (feat. Vince Staples & Pusha T) Travis Scott - Goosebumps (HYME Remix) Run the Jewels - Ooh La La (Remix) [feat. Mexican Institute Of Sound & Santa Fe Klan] Gallant - Comeback DJ Muggs The Black Goat - The Chosen One Pooh Shiesty - Guard Up YOUR LOSS - Chaos! Bilal & Nikki Jean - Black Coffee in Bed RiFF RAFF - TiPTOE 4 (fea. Yelawolf) Emotional Oranges - Bonafide (feat. Chiiild) Lous and The Yakuza - Amigo (with Joey Bada$$) Retch - Sun Up Larry June & Jay Worth - Dear Winter BabyTron - Dookie Season (feat. RMC Mike) Central Cee - Pinging (6 Figures) Fredo Bang - In The Name of Gee (Still the Most Hated) seeyousoon - Fever scarlxrd - LET THE WXRLD BURN. Ebhoni - Hit This Remble & Drakeo The Ruler - Ruth’s Chris Freestyle Tom The Mail Man - Forever Video Dave (Mike Eagle's DJ) - Grift Em Up (Donald Trump Diss) Saint Parrish - Blue Bills. (feat. Mick Jenkins) F L A C O - You Know What BigBabyGucci - Stuck in my System Funkmaster Flex & Fivio Foreign - Game Time Gullypabs X Skengdo & AM - #410 In Spain Ghetts - Skengman (feat. Stormzy & Ghetto) Las Cafeteras - If I Was President (Remix) [feat. Sa-Roc, QVLN, Mega Ran & Boog Brown] Malz Monday & WESTSIDE BOOGIE - Tripping Rich The Kid - Split Lord Jahmonte Ogbon - Eleven (Remix) Jae Stephens - What You Need (feat. THEY.) Masiwei (of Higher Brothers - Why (为什么) Mitchy Slick & Damu - Anything Kenny Tea & Planet Asia - Stepped On Alpaca Rio Da Yung OG & RMC Mike - PoundTown Knarley Jai - Success (feat. Duke Deuce) Khalygud - Modello Top5 - 2 Cases (via 6ixbuzz) Dessa - Rome Body Meat - Ultima Doe Boy - COVID-19 Bizzy Banks - Bless the Booth (Freestyle)* / Bandemic A-WAX & KING ISO - BLEMISH Mo Money - Deniable Philmore Greene & Skyzoo - Time Philthy Rich & Fenix Flexin - Separate Smokepurpp - PIGEONS! White John, Rucci & Big Sad 1900 - Thug Life Jhyph - Rip da Goons (feat. OMB Peezy) Spectacular Diagnostics - PETANQUE / PASS.OUT FRESCODBFLYG – MOB TIES Chey Dolla - Money Ain't Everything YeloHill & Steelz - Strip Russ Millions & Buni - Plugged In (Freestyle) Langston Bristol & redveil - Psa The Bad Seed - Daddy Dearest Substance810 – Fortified Senseigod - To The Sky (feat. Smoke DZA) YN Jay - Coochie In Class / Smoove Back (Austin Powers Remix) / Las Vegas Bronze Nazareth & Leaf Dog – Lisbon Dinners Yung Jinx - Kickback (feat. Ab-Soul) SebastiAn & Syd - Doorman (Vegyn Remix) Wacotron & Southside - Toothpaste KESHORE - Computer Science Icewear Vezzo - 6Print Yella Beezy - Is You Fuckin? Lil Eazzyy - Onna Come Up (Remix) [feat. G Herbo] RoadRunna White - HighClass (feat. G.T., Icewear Vezzo, Rio Da Yung OG, FGB Boomer) Amber Window & Swarvy - A Child Is Born Virgil Abloh & serpentwithfeet - Delicate Limbs (Special Request Remix) Bobby Sessions - Made A Way (Remix) [feat. Lecrae] Westside Tut - Cry Over (feat. Lil Durk) Rome Streetz & VH$ - Bolilo (feat. A.M. Early Morning) Haviah Mighty - Antisocial (feat. Old Man Saxon) K. Forest - Bad Neighbors Jamal Gasol- This Rap Shit Is Wrestling Pro Dillinger - Conan Substance810 – Fortified The Bad Seed - Daddy Dearest All Hail Y.T. & Yosonova - D Mack's Theme Too Short – All The Kids On The Block (feat. Rayven Justice) not yet posted: Adam Snow & youngxdre - No Time Cheat Codes & Bryce Vine - Stay (Blinkie Remix) Jelani Aryeh - Angels Joy Oladokun - wish you the best (feat. Jensen McRae) Tony Njoku - ZORO (feat. Zoro Jackson) Stack Skrilla - Need 2
Features
Racci - Pop Out (feat. Young Dro) Fable - Songs from the Gun (feat. Jeremiah Jae) D.Charmberz - Rap with a Legend (feat. Method Man) Whethan & Oliver Tree - Freefall (Tchami Remix) Mithril Oreder, Rappin' 4-Tay & DJ Pain 1 - Popular Demand Young Franco, Denzel Curry & Pell - Fallin' Apart (Close Counters Remix) / Fallin' Apart (Human Movement Remix) StarBoy - Show You the Money (feat. WizKid) Arichussettes & Eto - Spit Nothing But Street Faouzia & John Legend - Minefields (Hook N Sling Remix) JGreen - All On Me (Remix) [feat. Jackboy] 215doubleo - Right My Wrongs (feat. Teejay3k & E Mozzy) Swiggle Mandela - Needed (feat. WESTSIDE BOOGIE, Jasey Cordeta & Kenai) Hass Irv - All Day (Remix) [feat. G Herbo] GR$$D - THEY DON'T LIKE US (feat. Guapdad 4000 & Y2) The Yutes & Curren$y - High Grade Steib Boy Stretch - Floatin' Thru Da Trap (feat. Maxo Kream & Lil' Keke) Mike Knox - Backblock (Remix) [feat. Beanie Sigel, Young Chris, Foreign Boy Osama & Quilly] Baby Shae - Clout Shit (feat. Molly Brazy) Sxtturn - Ella Me Llamo a Las 3 Am (feat. Kid Cole & Clasm Casino) FROZEN4EVER - Lately 2 (feat. DC the Don) Young AP - Drill Tonight (feat. Shef G) LIL CBN - Devon Booker (feat. DC the Don) Dramatik! - Baraka (feat. AKTHESAVIOR) Taleban Dooda & T9ine - Chosen BagBoy Po & Sada Baby - Count Me Out Danny Foster - Don't Call (feat. Lando Chill) Richie Valentino - Tiddys (feat. Jim Jones & Blue Diamond) Frenglish - D'ussé (Remix) [feat. Slimelife Shawty] Big Los - Back To Back (feat. BabyTron) Lifeof9000 - No Where (feat. James Fauntleroy) AcquiredTaste - SNAKES IN the GRASS (feat. 03 Greedo) CxT GZUS - Votive Candles (feat. Joell Ortiz) MeloBallin - What You Tryna Spend (feat. Payroll Giovanni) * means not on streaming project features are listed mostly just if the artist is recognizable the "Features" tab are songs that haven't been posted that I discovered through the feature. From KHDTX13 (will be updated):
My discount bot to help /wallstreetbets. It took me almost a year to develop it to my standard.
My private codes was used to develop it, and it's very unlikely I will sell it off to anyone or publish the code freely as it took me way too long to develop it. I rather post updates freely, at no cost to anyone than give out the code.
I will not be posting this hourly. It just too long to load everything up maybe in the future. I will post during open though.
Discord and telegram admins, don't try to monetize my bot suggestions to vulnerable people, when you don't even own the codes behind it.
There are a lot of SPY500/"boomer" companies within the bot, I thought about removing it but many people preferred that I kept it in there.
There won't be any sell signals, as stocks only go up, so I rather just do a discount algorithm.
Batch 1 = Algorithm/Bot + Human Judgement
Batch 2 = Algorithm/Bot Judgement Only
This is a one man bot.
Bot Overview: It's showing an opportunity that you may have missed otherwise, so you can decide for yourself if you want to pursue the discount of a stock for potential profits. Backtesting has not been done, do not YOLO your life savings into whatever stated risking it all. Rather use this as a side tool. Key:
Pharma companies are very risky.
Meme/Hype stocks are very risky.
Companies that you don't know how they work are very risky.
Follower companies are very risky because they join the hype train (what NKLA is to TSLA).
I have a very low amount in options (less than $500), and I have 100k+ in shares and cash.
When doing options have a lot of collateral, so you don't hit margin call.
Take the "Calls" as very discounted, and "Potentially A Call" as somewhat discounted.
Old money companies are slow. While tech companies are fast-paced.
Only invest in companies that you do know and see potential in.
You don't have to invest every day, only when you see the potential.
At Close of Monday
Batch 1:
TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated 560.11 Aerospace & Defense
AXP American Express Company 121.15 Consumer Finance
Batch 2: Company | Current Price | Average Price Call:
Paychex, Inc. PAYX 86.83 90.99
Brown-Forman Corporation Class B BF.B 72.59 76.84
Verisign, Inc. VRSN 192.13 204.74
Marriott International Inc MAR 120.33 129.19
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Batch 3:
Under Construction
Donation Link: I have created a donation link (as many of you guys requested that I do) just as an addition to help support and motivate me to continue. www.paypal.me/WallStreetTrader Update: Will update close it in an hour of this post. Suggest tickers, I will add them to the database. Adding batches Close Batch 2 Added 10:03 pm Monday, 25 January 2021 (GMT-5) Time in New York, NY, USA Close Batch 1 Added 8:26 am Tuesday, 26 January 2021 (GMT-5) Time in New York, NY, USA Open Batch 2 Added 9:59 am Tuesday, 26 January 2021 (GMT-5) Time in New York, NY, USA Open Batch 1 Added 10:06 am Tuesday, 26 January 2021 (GMT-5) Time in New York, NY, USA More tickers added.
Dec/29/2020 news: \\ political party law reformed: idea > individual; transparency; female % \\ Pashinyan responds to "not being enough pro-Russian" \\ who owns which business? \\ protests & snap elect. \\ burglary case & HHK MP \\ humanitarian aid for Artsakh \\ Vitalik flexes muscles \\ bills pass
Your 14-minute Tuesday report in 3589 words.
Pashinyan about pre-war negotiations and "avoiding" the war:
The idea that a flexible foreign policy could have avoided this war is being constantly circulated. Those [former officials] who believe in this thesis must answer at least one question: as a result of their "flexible" policy, why was it not possible to avoid the war of 2016, which was preceded by the unprecedented escalation of 2015 and 2014? The "flexible" policy adopted by Armenia for many years led to the introduction of Russian proposals in January 2016, which proposed the return of 7 territories (5 + 2) without any legal status for Nagorno-Karabakh. Why did Russia make such an offer? For one simple reason, as a result of Armenia's "flexible" policy, the Madrid process had come to a standstill because Artsakh could receive a Status outside Azerbaijan only with the consent of Azerbaijan. It was obvious to Russia and everyone else that Azerbaijan would not agree to this, so it was necessary to find ways to break the deadlock. And, by the way, if certain people claim that Armenia's foreign policy after 2018 was not sufficiently pro-Russian and this was the reason for the war, then why in the conditions of the "sufficiently pro-Russian" policy of 2016 were Russian proposals born and why did the April war take place? There was only one way to prevent this war: return the regions and forget about Artsakh's legal status. Now, after the war is over and we know the outcome, the number of supporters of [giveaway of 7 regions] is growing. What they forget is that if we gave away the lands to avoid the war, we would have the same situation in Syunik borders. They used to accuse us of "selling lands" [he means the contradictory statements like Nikol sold the lands, and why didn't Nikol sell the lands earlier to avoid the war]. The biggest failure by the supporters of the "flexible policies" is that they spent years trying to avoid a war instead of preparing for it. Our biggest failure is that we weren't able to recover enough embezzled public property in the past 2.5 years to help us better prepare for the war. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039231.html
businesses owned by opposition leaders
What are the known businesses owned by some of the famous people you might have seen in the public square lately?
Vazgen Manukyan
20% share in Lorva Amrots Ltd which plans to operate two hydro-power plants on Dzoraget river. Manukyan purchased the shares in 2011 after being appointed by Serj as the head of the Public Council. In 2015-2016, he owned 30% shares in Vanavka Group. In 2015-2017 he had 30% shares in Jermakunq Group. These companies extracted and bottled water. At the time, the director of these companies was charged with illegal bottling and causing ֏55 million in damages to the state. The corruption case was sent to the IRS, which terminated the investigation after "not finding a crime". The companies export the products mostly to Russia.
Arthur Vanetsyan
Vanetsyan is a poor boy, according to the public declarations database. But if you have time, take a look at the investigative report I covered in Ap29/2020 news, according to which Vanetsyan's family allegedly used offshore firms and owns mining shares. More on that here. Here is a Hetq investigative report. Vanetsyan's father owns AV Group flower importing business. About a year ago, the police investigated several flower sellers near a stadium. An opposition outlet claimed that the sellers were "beaten and forced" to testify that Vanetsyan's father was running an underground business. This was never properly proven and the opposition's claim that Vanetsyan was about to be charged did not happen. The police confirmed that there was an investigation against several flower sellers. These flower sellers ended up hiring Vanetsyan's co-party-creator Arsen Babayan as a lawyer. Vanetsyan's father owns 50% shares of A B Export oil import company that began operating in 2017. It was a minor player that quit the market in 2019. Vanetsyan's father also owns 60% of A B Trans transportation company. In Nov/2019, CivilNet wrote about Arthur Vanetsyan's cousins' possible involvement with Zangezur Copper factory (massive business). The same offshore firm in Cyprus, which purchased Zangezur shares, was tied to Vanetsyan's cousins' another business in the same offshore. Vanetsyan's cousins also own a Switzerland-based Exoil wholesale cooking oil and shipping company. In 2019 it had a revenue of $148 million (11 billion Rubles). The cousins don't do this business in Armenia. Per 2019 registration, Arthur Vanetsyan himself owns one apartment, $10,000, and ֏1 million. Media reported in May/2020 that Vanetsyan's cousin purchased a ֏300 million mansion in Yerevan, which was donated to then-new political party "Hayreniq", co-founded by Arthur Vanetsyan and Arsen Babayan (the guy who is accused of helping HHK to fabricate documents in 2018 to hijack the Constitutional Court by appointing HHK MP Hrayr Tovmasyan as a judge). Arthur Vanetsyan's mother served as the chief of the personnel-management department in Serj and Pashinyan administrations, before quitting and working as Serj's aide. Vanetsyan's wife owns Villa Montessori preschool in Yerevan. She also runs the Young Education Center Ltd.
ARF Ishkhan Saghatelyan
Pashinyan appointed Saghatelyan as Gegharquniq governor for a brief period after the 2018 revolution, when Pashinyan created a unity-government, represented by all political parties. The honeymoon soon ended and each party went their way. Saghatelyan owns shares in i-mega Service Ltd. It's a tourism agency founded in 2006. It operates in Armenia, Artsakh, and Georgia. Saghatelyan founded Navasar company and serves as director. It's owned by his father. Saghatelyan family owns the Tsovasar hotel complex on Lake Sevan shores. It's 10,000 m2 (a hectare?). As of 2018, Saghatelyan declared ownership of 8 pieces of land, 2 apartments, ֏18.5 million, $45,000, and €15,000. Saghatelyan's father is the mayor of Gegharquniq's Geghamavan settlement. This municipality had recently sent a letter demanding Pashinyan's resignation. Saghatelyan used to be a shareholder of Shiman Ltd which is no longer active.
BHK leader Gagik "dodi gago" Tsarukyan
BUCKLE UP, KIDS! Overall, Tsarukyan runs 54 companies. Студент, комсомолец, спортсмен, u наконец, он просто красавиц. His business empire was covered in details here. Textile, gas stations, malls, Multi Group empire, Shangri-La Casino, Ararat Cognac & Wine Factory, BMW official office Euromotors (also Hyundai, Gazel, Niva), Multi Motors, Magas Invest, Multi Wellness, Olimpavan sports complex, Kotayk beer factory, TechnAlyumin door & window factory, Multi Rest House hotel chain, Paravon luxury restaurant, Onira Club, Zvartnot's airport's upper-level service company Avia Service, Farm Adama, Multi Pharm pharmacy, Multi Leon gas stations, Multi Solar solar panels. He owns shares in Frank Mueller Yerevan watch company, Fortsa, Multi Gold, Multi Diamond jewelry firms, several fish-breeding businesses. He also runs businesses in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Czechia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Latvia. Per official declaration, he owns $168 million, €29 million, ֏675 million, 14 pieces of land, 6 houses, 2 public buildings, 1 apartment.
Details for BHK MP Mikael Melkumyan and HHK Vahram Baghdasaryan in the link below.
The street demonstrations, organized by the former regime and its allies, continue. They demand Pashinyan's resignation and the appointment of their candidate Vazgen Manukyan as the Prime Minister for the duration of a year, after which they agree to hold new elections. ARF leader Artsvik Minasyan said they don't plan to discuss snap elections with Pashinyan. "Right now, our only demand is Pashinyan's resignation. We demand SIS to immediately hold every criminal accountable". The demonstrators gathered in front of the SIS building to present the demands. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039316.html
Pashinyan meets leaders of several opposition parties
QP leader Lilith: there is a possibility there will be a meeting between Pashinyan and the three Parliamentary political parties. They could discuss snap elections. The impression is that politicians who demand Pashinyan's resignation do not want snap elections in an attempt to bypass the citizen's right to form a government. Our political team reaffirms the position that none of us is clinging on seats. // LHK MP Gorgisyan: we cannot hold snap elections now, under this chaotic situation. We will discuss snap elections if Pashinyan discusses his resignation and transfer of power. (LHK wants its leader Marukyan to be elected as Prime Minister by a Parliamentary vote) // Pashinyan met BHK leader Tsarukyan. The latter is against holding snap elections unless Pashinyan resigns now, and presumably, he wants Vazgen Manukyan appointed as PM. LHK leader Marukyan also wants Pashinyan to resign now so a new Prime Minister can form a new government cabinet "consisted of experts". https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039261.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039268.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039299.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039322.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039323.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039327.html
felony case: ex-HHK MP charged with armed attack on ex-IRS official
In August of this year, Russia extradited a former HHK MP Alraghatsi Lyovik to Armenia. He was wanted for allegedly burglarizing and shooting at a senior IRS official a decade ago. At the time, his case was "frozen". It was relaunched in 2018. (magic wand) NSS says: suspect Lyovik, with the help of citizens AK and AN, organized an armed burglary against IRS Chief (?) Avetisyan in 2008. AK was in the United States. In 2004, he stole $150,000 from jewelry shops in Los Angeles. He got caught but managed to flee to Armenia. Once in Armenia, AK colluded with policeman AN to organize a similar criminal ring in Armenia. [MP] Lyovik personally knew AK, and learned about their burglaries. Since Lyovik had bad relations with the IRS chief (victim), he decided to punish the victim by urging AK to burglarize his house. Lyovik revealed the plot to his brother-in-law, who happened to be the victim's personal aide. The latter gave all the personal habits and details about the victim to the burglars. [read the article for the full story, or wait for a Hollywood movie in theaters near you] The burglars and organizers are charged with felonies. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203835 , https://youtu.be/brdozVbwQ6A , https://factor.am/274836.html , https://armtimes.com/hy/article/183522 , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203835 ,
Russian Orthodox chapel will be built
... in the Armenian settlement near Nakhijevan where Azerbaijan had earlier shut down a Russian helicopter, which killed and wounded Russian pilots. It'll be on a hill in Yeraskh. Construction starts on January 6th. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039259.html
Russian peacekeepers conducted training
... to stay in shape. A report by WarGonzo's Semyon Pegovn who returned to Artsakh to meet the New Year there. https://youtu.be/-c1BSTkC-a8
Russia and Turkey comment
Russian MFA: The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh should not be used for the infiltration of foreign mercenaries into the region. Here we have exactly the same position as our Turkish partners. Turkish MFA: we see that a ceasefire has been established. We hope to establish the joint RU-TR monitoring center soon. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039281.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039282.html
Vitalik Balasanyan will return the lands, kicks junkies, and restrict Facebook
Artsakh President Arayik earlier announced that he will allow his opponents to take jobs in the new coalition government. Kocharyan-ally Vitali Balasanyan became the Security Council chief. Vitalik: we will return Hadrut and Askeran region with the help of Russian and Armenian military-political efforts. We are in a better situation now to solve territorial issues. We will soon create border guard forces. It will report to MoD, which will report to the Security Council (his office). Drugs have no place in Artsakh. Drug users must quit or leave Artsakh now. We need to return to traditional values of giving women as wives after asking if the man had served in the army. No public official will be allowed to use Facebook during work. More: https://youtu.be/DceHyi4AB5g https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289056/
search operations are paused / the "welcome to Azerbaijan" sign
Azerbaijan received criticism for refusing to allow search teams to enter the Hadrut region yesterday. They also prevented UNESCO from checking the status of several Armenian cultural sights, after complaining that UNESCO was "biased" against Azerbaijan during the war. HR Ombudsman: Any untrue information can not be a reason to disrupt the humanitarian process [referring to unconfirmed rumors on social media that Armenians opened fire at Azeris in Hadrut. An unofficial Iranian social media channel claims 3 Azeris were killed but due to an internal fight.] The Human Rights Ombudsman also criticized the Azeri troops for installing a provocative "welcome to Azerbaijan" sign on part of a road that went under Azeri control near Syunik borders. The Ombudsman says it's meant to intimidate the locals. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039233.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039237.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039244.html , https://factor.am/325511.html
Context: BHK MP Naira Zohrabyan referred to the majority of Armenian voters as human trash *(or as she says: impure), and called for the establishment of forced re-education camps so people won't vote for a "wrong party" again. The ruling QP party launched a process to terminate her chairmanship in Parliamentary Human Rights Committee. Read yesterday's thread for more details.* QP MP Arthur: the law states that the Parliament can appoint and terminate the chairman. The termination of this seat does not require the same procedures as in the case of MPs and Judges. Armenian Constitution states that in Armenia, human beings are of the highest value, and inalienable human dignity is the inseparable basis of their rights and freedoms. MP Zohrabyan's public conduct is against it. // The law gives the second-largest political party the mandate to appoint the chairman of this particular Committee. BHK, being the second-largest party, said they wouldn't appoint a replacement if Zohrabyan is voted out. QP MP Arthur: per rules, if BHK refuses to appoint a new candidate, the largest (QP) party will receive the mandate. // Parliament voted 78-4 to terminate Zohrabyan's chairmanship. BHK and LHK did not vote. BHK MP Zohrabyan: this termination was a Constitutional crime. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039245.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039264.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039304.html , https://factor.am/325132.html
Parliament votes: registering parties becomes easier / ideology instead of person / financial transparency
The goal of this reform is to have political parties that are more about ideology and less about an individual. The reform will boost internal democracy within parties; it will expand the powers of the Party Assembly. Parties will be required to add more anonymous voting mechanisms. The law also requires more financial transparency. The required membership to register a party is lowered from 800 to 300. Some of the public funding given to political parties will depend on the % of female members in the administrative boards. Parliament voted 99-1 to approve it. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039270.html , https://youtu.be/bPuZViCCCxo
Parliament votes: monthly fees towards soldiers' recovery are raised
Most workers pay a monthly 1000 Dram towards the Soldiers' Fund, which takes care of wounded soldiers and families of those who died. The govt found it necessary to raise the fee to cover thousands of new recipients. Here are the new fees and salary brackets: ֏1,500 for < ֏100k/month ֏3,000 for < ֏200k ֏5,500 for < ֏500k ֏8,500 for < ֏1 million ֏15,000 for > ֏1 million Parliament voted 89-0 to approve it. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039296.html
Parliament votes: ban on public smoking is delayed until 2022
The govt had adopted a law to ban smoking in public cafes and the public display of cigarettes in grocery shops. The ruling party wanted to delay parts of the bill that were set to go into effect in January, citing possible financial issues for businesses caused by the pandemic. QP MP: the cigarette industry pays $383 million to state coffers. Healthcare Ministry: it will be a mistake if you delay this bill for the sake of $10 million in tax revenues. Parliament voted 86-0 to delay the anti-smoking bill until 2022. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039295.html
Parliament votes: no tax on goods donated to Armenia
QP MP: When you donate a charitable product to the Republic of Armenia, you are exempt from customs duties and other tax payments, except for one payment, which we are trying to exempt with this bill as well. // Parliament voted 80-0 to approve it. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039297.html
how is the Judicial Branch doing?
The Supreme Court protects or punishes judges. It also handles complaints. It's separate from the Constitutional Court. bad boys 19 complaints against judges were heard, 14 of which were petitioned by Justice Ministry and 4 by Judicial Ethics Board. 10 judges ended up receiving disciplinary penalties, 3 received a warning, 3 were reprimanded, 2 were terminated, 4 were cleared. the system is overloaded 61 judges are handling 6470 felony cases. 86 judges handle 175,940 civil cases. 24 judges handle 17,390 administrative cases. The number of Arbitration cases rose from 3100 to 9900. finances This year, Supremes appointed 20 new judges. Supreme's budget remained the same this year. They returned ֏607 million in savings back to state coffers. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039249.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039284.html
anti-corruption: SIS busts an IRS agent
SIS says: IRS border inspector took a bribe from a citizen to help him avoid paying Millions of ֏ in import taxes by splitting a large load into smaller pieces, so each piece would fall below the taxable threshold. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039293.html
IRS wants you to file less paperwork
IRS says the latest reforms will help the exporters and simplify the process in which Armenia is used as a transit country for trade. Some tasks can be done online. More: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039247.html
update: electricity prices
...won't go up for low-income families or those using less than 400 kWh. That's 90% of consumers. The rest will pay 3 Drams more. The rates are presented (6-10¢): https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039285.html
police to guard Lake Sevan against poachers
Police and Nature Ministry have set up additional checkpoints as part of measures against whitefish poaching in Sevan. 24/7 monitoring on all alleys leading to the lake. They will also travel across markets to catch contraband whitefish. Why? It's the egg-laying season. Fishing is banned for now. The legally-allowed fishing tools were temporarily removed from the lake. https://youtu.be/8ZyRGpEazMQ https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039339.html
...the rest should have access to other jobs. There is an opportunity now because many businesses operate remotely. Call Center workers don't have to visit an office. Businesses would rather pay less to hire a rural remote worker than more to hire someone in a Yerevan office. The High Tech Ministry has an ongoing program to teach IT to 5,000 citizens. We must help workers to expand their skillset. We're working on a program to allow a worker to quit the job, not worry about the food on the table, and have enough time for education and learning new skills. The villagers should ideally lease their smaller lands to large agricultural producers," said Economy Minister Qerobyan. Full interview: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039319.html
State regulators bust another price-fixing ring: fruit mafia
Yesterday, the Economic Competition Committee busted the egg industry's alleged price-fixing and anti-competitive practices. Today they say a similar collision was observed in the orange, mandarin, kiwi, lemon industry. The companies Best Fruits, Art-Fruits, and Promout were slapped with a ֏39 million in penalties for colluding to raise the prices for the products that had an increased demand during the pandemic period. http://www.competition.am/.../resources/Vo370_17_12_2020.pdf https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039269.html
Lenovo slapped for "anti-competitive practice"
The Economic Competition Committee heard a petition filed by Oazis Computer company against Lenovo. The latter was issued a warning for anti-competitive behavior. Public Regulator: "Lenovo" company had the ability to influence the process of importing Lenovo computers to Armenia from non-EAEU trade bloc countries. "Lenovo" took steps to reduce the import of Lenovo computers from non-EAEU states, by discriminating against Oazis Computer importer. Lenovo is given a month to correct the issue and fix the requirement and standards related paperwork. (Facebook next?) https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039333.html
Artsakh will also increase childbirth benefits
First child: ֏300k instead of ֏100k Second child: ֏300k instead of ֏200k (or ֏500k if one parent is disabled) As for monthly child care subsidy payments, it goes from ֏15k to ֏27k until the child turns 2. https://factor.am/325487.html
... thanks to generous diasporan donors like you. The first one was installed during the war in Goris city. https://factor.am/325090.html
Artsakh children receive New Years' gifts
Focus on Children Now charity organization distributed gifts to hundreds of Artsakh kids residing in Gegharquniq province. Backpacks, clothing, items of basic necessity, money, and postcards written by kids living in the United States. https://www.focusonchildrennow.org/ https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039302.html
Himnadram donates to refugee families
700 Artsakh families continue to live in 40 settlements of Gegharquniq province. The All Armenia Fund (HimnaDram.org) has provided food and household items to 241 families ahead of New Year. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039313.html
daily life in Syunik bordering villages Shurnukh and Vorotan
A good story of using Kindle Fire Kids Edition with 4 year olds
There are lots of problems posted to this subreddit, I thought I would share some of my success with the Kindle Fire 7 and my 4 year old twin girls. Hopefully some here can share their experiences. My girls love the tablets, but I've had to curate the content with an iron fist. Here's how they're set up:
Freetime Unlimited is removed from their profiles.
Web browsing is disabled from their profiles
Movies are disabled from their profiles
My wife's Amazon Prime account can share books through Prime Reading, this has some good children's books such as Pete the cat or the Mr Men books... but the girls rarely open them. They can't read yet.
The app time limit is set to 45m. This lets me force them to get exercise breaks, clean up, take bathroom breaks or just stop without too much trouble. They're used to the tablet locking them out. I extend it from the UI on the tablet itself, else it's not reliable to extend.
What do my girls do with the tablets?
90% of the time they're playing Khan Academy Kids... switching from number games, word games, books, drawing, colouring etc, etc. ... that app is awesome for this age. Without it, I'm not sure they'd like the tablets at all.
PBS Kids "Play and Learn Engineering", they figured it out end to end. It's not very challenging, but it was very good for them to learn to navigate apps on a tablet
They're figuring out how to doodle on camera photos
RV AppStudios ABC Kids - Tracing and Phonics, - I evaluated this game and figured the interest would be short-lived, but the game has "stickers" and "toys" to collect, so the past week they've been obsessed with practicing their alphabet and matching lowercase letters to uppercase, etc to get toys and compare what they have with their sister. Very relevant for the age... although it sounds like they're playing slots in a Vegas casino... which worries me.
I created a children's profile of my own which has the Freetime Unlimited enabled. The Kids+ app on my iPad lets me access the books there to read to them, this has many excellent kids books, this means Freetime Unlimited is not useless to me, particularly since our public library's ebook loans are backed up for 6+Mo due to Covid.
Problems
The wifi doesn't work after the tablet is asleep for an extended period. I have to disable and enable the wifi before handing them their tablets, else it just doesn't work.
Sometimes Khan Academy freezes. Restarting the tablet fixes this. The girls have learned to be patient.
Books are not reliable... it seems like the DRM gets confused. This is true for books which were outright purchased as Kindle Edition or books from Prime. This is a serious disappointment and impossible to explain to a 4 year old. Hopefully it's just temporary.
The fonts are too small when reading books. the 7" displays don't seem to be the issue, even on a full sized iPad with Kids+, the text is small. Zoom is bad on the Kids+ iPad app and *unusable* on the Kindle. This is going to be a serious issue when they start reading on their own.
Parental controls from the dashboard e.g., "disable device" can take 10 minutes to kick in. Useless as a way to "take their tablet away". You'll still have to pull it from their hands while they need to do "one more thing."
What I would like to do
Find an photo app for young children which would engage them to try photography
Find a music app which would let me load songs and let them play them to dance to etc.
Find any game which would let them play head-to-head play. Using the tablet to teach the concept of "rules" and "turns"... I mean Tic-Tac-Toe, or card matching memory games level stuff... these girls are 4.
Find a coding-like app which would get them thinking about coding (I tried Lightbot Jr, they don't get it yet. Not being able to just move the robot with controls seems dumb to them)
Drum machine music making stuff... ( I tried pianos, they kind of like them for a few minutes then get bored)
I strongly suspect I'll be replacing these with iPads when they get older, that will have its own challenges, although at least books will work... but until then, the girls love the tablets and the content is mostly positive and helpful.
TLDR; Coca Cola is still 10% below its pre-covid high. It should go even higher. For the 8 of you still reading, I present to you a somewhat neglected stock hurt by Covid that hasn't fully recovered, but also one whose February high of $60 is not a ceiling. Yes, Coca Cola has had a decent run from it's $36 March lows and is even up 12% since October, trading about $54/share as of Friday before pulling back a bit this morning. It's not done yet. Let me provide a few reasons why. To understand where we're going, let's look at where we've been. Here's a 5 year chart. 5 year performance of KO: courtesy of CNBC The stock has been of a bit of a snoozer until it began to awake from its slumber about 2018, which accelerated through 2019 and then Wall Street really started to like it in 2020. It had upward momentum, upset by Covid. This momentum will return, very soon. Catalyst: In Person Dining Why will momentum return? Most importantly, vaccines will return restaurants back to normal operations by summer 2021. The restaurant industry has been in total carnage. Independent restaurants are closing permanently every day, with large chains taking market share. BUT - those that are still operating are living off of Off-Premise consumption. IF people get drinks to go, they get one. No refills. This has depressed an entire major sector of Coke's sales. As restaurants return to normal, they'll have more customers, and existing customers will be consuming more cokes per sale than they are now. That's a double re-open win. Catalyst: Cutting overhead like a mo-fo There's more to this story. Coke has used Covid as an opportunity to cut costs and streamline operations. They've cut employees and overhead expense - more than 1/3 of their North American employees. They've cut a lot of niche product that had overhead burden and marketing/distribution expense but had little revenue, much less profit, like Tab. They're going to come out of this a leaner, more focused company. They may still have an old and sleepy brand image, but they're also a cash printing machine, and they're going to be printing even more tendies to share with us. Catalyst: Falling Dollar But wait! There's more! Coca Cola generates roughly one third of its revenue from North America. That leaves the balance subject to currency fluctuations. With the dollar tanking, those foreign profits are going to be worth even more. Not Priced In Looking at the CNBC.com earnings helps demonstrate that the street has not priced in the recovery, much less the benefits from restructuring and currency. The company itself has not been providing guidance as they have no more visibility than we do how the almost random shutdown/reopen orders will happen. They did, however, warn that Q3 would be hampered by currency exchange rates when the dollar was strengthening, the opposite of what is happening now and projected to continue for a bit. How did Q3 end up when the currency was facing headwinds? They beat the street consensus by 18.8%, and were just one cent per share less than a year ago - when unemployment was at a record low and everything was "normal". Coke's Earnings Trend - CNBC Based on the same CNBC data, the street is projecting that one year from now, after restaurants are fully operational, after the company has completed a worldwide restructuring that will eliminate 1/3 of its North American employees, and after the benefit of a presumed lower dollar, the company will just be earning 3 cents more in Q3 and Q4 2021 than it did in 2019, pre-covid. Again, this would say that reopening their fountain sales division to normal levels is only worth 4 cents per share from this past quarter when much of the country remains shut down. That seems low. Too low. Benchmark: Starbucks What's the upside here? I'm using Starbucks as the benchmark. They're both beverage companies, though Starbucks is clearly more of a direct restaurant play, and more of a pure play on China's reopening - which is far ahead of the US's and the rest of the world's economy. Starbucks One Year Performance - CNBC Starbucks hit a high of about 93 in January, as Covid was already gripping China. It then fell and rebounded to about $90 in February before beginning the March market swoon. On the way back up it kept bouncing into that $90 level (frustrating the hell out of me holding $90 calls) before finally breaking through on the way to all time highs, now at $102, almost 10% above the January highs. Looking at a similar pattern (though KO held on longer before a much quicker descent) I would expect KO to test $60 soon, and probably bounce off a time or two before breaking through. Again, based on prior momentum I would expect once it clears $60 it should easily run up another 10%. The market will quickly recognize when they reopen they're going to have more operating leverage than when the shutdown began, and they're going to start seeing currency gains as soon as this quarter. Benchmark: Pepsi Pepsi is probably viewed as Coke's more direct competitor. Coke had been outperforming them over the last 3 years until the Covid dip. Pepsi, more diversified because of its snack businesses, was the better stay at home play. Coke has a decent catch up trade remaining. 3 year performance Coke vs Pepsi: Barchart.com Strategy: Sugar water doesn't get stock analysts excited any more than WSB casino patrons. For that reason, I would not be looking at any FD's. This one needs some longer dated options. I want to get past the next earnings on 1/28 for evidence of the currency lift to begin to show, but the country will likely still be in winter Covid shutdown mode so I'm not sure we'll get guidance then based on restaurant openings. I'm also feeling like mid-January/February could be a bit rough after a lights-out November and a presumed Santa Claus rally at month's end. Keep some powder dry to buy this on dips. I am. I'm thinking there's a three-prong approach here. For the first taste, February 55 calls. Relatively low risk (only slightly OTM), gets us a few weeks past the next earnings date when we should at least see a currency boost, but also captures any run up as the market starts to figure out there's still reopening meat left here to take off the bone. I'm going to put the heart of the play into June 60 calls. The country should be mostly vaccinated, restaurants should be back to near normal. Hopefully this will be telegraphed by the April earnings call. If this gets priced in sooner...Vega is your friend. For a stretch, going to throw the balance of the play into leaps for Jan 2022 65's. I'm starting this position with $5K. Because I expect a decent dip sometime Jan/Feb, will hopefully have some dry powder on the sideline to increase these positions if I've been too early on this move. But as we've seen with many of the reopening plays, when the market decides it's time, I don't want to be late....or any later than I already am. Positions: Purchased this morning at open: Act fast and you can get in cheaper than me!
President Sarkissian visited Yerablur on Sunday. "These are difficult days. I hope that with the end of 2020 we will close the tragic page and we will be able to stand up and open a new page. The only thing we will remember from 2020 is the sacred memory of the people who gave their lives to defend the Homeland. All misfortunes should be lessons, not painful memories. We have to start our life again. I look forward to the end of this year". PM and family paid tributes to fallen soldiers in Tavush province. LHK and church leadership visited Yerablur Pantheon. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038367.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038378.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038379.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038381.html
parts from Pashinyan speech: past & present, investigation, border demarcation
We will need a comprehensive evaluation of how and why things developed and ended that way. We must face the reality and admit that we have made mistakes for many years, the mistakes we have made have been systemic, conceptual, substantive. This cannot be a result of one person or events in just a few years. Did I understand all this while taking office as Prime Minister? Of course. Was I trying to change the situation? Of course. I am now more convinced than ever that there was simply no time to stop the spinning wheel of history. The borders in the Syunik sector are being adjusted, or rather, the Armenian Armed Forces are being stationed on the internationally recognized borders of Armenia (there were no soldiers here before because Syunik was not bordering Azerbaijan before the war). This process changes certain setups we're familiar with, introduces inconveniences, complications, and emotions. In reality, this is being done to ensure and strengthen the safety of Syunik. How? In areas outside of the Republic of Armenia, there was a high risk of military actions, which could carry on to Syunik with all their consequences. By doing the border demarcation of our internationally-recognized lands, we are introducing security assurances. Additionally, Russian border guards are already stationed in some parts of Syunik, which creates a whole new situation. The demarcation can complicate travel on some roads, but these are issues that can be resolved by having an AM-AZ-RU document (specifically about road safety). Not one millimeter of Syunik or Republic of Armenia land has been conceded. Any claim to the contrary is simply false. The people, only the people, should decide the fate of the government and not the elite circles. My November 18th Roadmap will address post-war issues and establish internal stability. "Let's build Armenia anew." I chose this slogan before the war to guide Armenia's transformation strategy. And this formula is useful for our future as well. We have to perceive the world in a new way, we have to look at what we have to do in a new way, we have to re-evaluate our capabilities in a new way, first of all in education, science, technological development, we have to build our dream anew, and we have to dream anew. Glory to our fallen heroes, glory to our living heroes, and glory to those who will still be heroes on the way to realizing the dreams of our people. Full: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038333.html
borders: fake news, rumors, and rebuttals
Artsakh president office: the media rumors about giving Karmir Shuka (south) to Azerbaijan is fake news. Moreover, we plan to build new housing there soon. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038399.html MoD denied media rumors that two Tavush villages are being handed over to Azerbaijan and that the soldiers were told to leave. "Refrain from spreading unverified fake news," said MoD. Tavush governor called the reports "irresponsible and dangerous". https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038457.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038464.html Sosu Purak is a park in Syunik province, bordering Azerbaijan. The Nature Ministry rebutted the media rumors about half of the park going under Azeri control. *"Sosu Purak, which is managed by Zangezur POAK, has 64.1 hectares of lands, which are located within the Republic of Armenia." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038477.html
border demarcation continues in Syunik / Pashinyan visits the border settlements
NSS says: border adjustments are being made in Goris-Kapan road sections under the mediation of Russia. (read Friday report for details). The process will finish in a few days. It'll nesure safe passage for cars. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038380.html Syunik governor Melikset: don't exit the Armenian border to collect or chop wood. Keep your animal herds within Armenia. The border roads will have info-plates with numbers that you can dial if you have questions. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038383.html Pashinyan before visiting Syunik: I am saddened to learn that my visit to Syunik has ignited certain passions. I hope you will be convinced that my decision to visit Syunik is not intended to inflame everyone. I made the decision to convey my respect and appreciation for the people of Syunik. The second most important reason is to answer your questions, to give the necessary explanations. Not a single millimeter of land has been ceded from Syunik Province of RA and I hope we'll be able to talk about this. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038397.html protesters A group of protesters, lead by the city's deputy-mayors, closed the Goris road so Pashinyan couldn't enter the city. The police were involved, there was a scuffle. Goris mayor ex-HHK Arush Arushanyan was taken to the police station earlier that day and charged with attempting to organize an unauthorized event/protest (Code 34-2251) to prevent the PM from entering the city. HHK and BHK officials gathered outside of the police station to show him support. 2010 border demarcation law, the "GPS" myth Pashinyan met the crowd in Sisian. One of the opposition's complaints has been "GPS is inaccurate and cannot be used for demarcation", to which, Pashinyan answered, "[the demarcation] is done multiple times, with different methods. There is no issue in this regard." Pashinyan: There is a lot of talk about *"giving away" Syunik". In fact, it is quite the opposite. When we deploy our border troops in accordance with the Armenian border, our level of security increases because that border also becomes the border of the security system of which we are a member. The demarcation is carried out following the law adopted in 2010. The issue is that the current borders, the description of the administrative borders of our communities, were clarified by the law on the "administrative-territorial division of the Republic of Armenia", adopted in 2010. In that law, for example, villages Khndzoresk and Tegh were drawn to include borders with Azerbaijan. The government in 2010 had accepted that demarcation; now we're facing problems here. And today, some of the people, who ask why and how the borders are being demarcated this way, are the same officials who were public officials in 2010, who adopted this law.If what we're doing today is "treason", then what happened in 2010 is even more of a "treason". "why didn't CSTO get involved during war?" Pashinyan: why didn't CSTO act during the war? For the same reason: our 2010 law states that this is what our official Republic of Armenia border is and that anything beyond Tegh village is Azerbaijan. CSTO, naturally, couldn't act beyond our official borders. We have received assurances that in the event of action within our borders, the bloc will act. army & people Resident: our army did not lose the war. Pashinyan: Our army and the people are heroes, there can be no two opinions about it. That doesn't mean there weren't issues, or some soldiers and generals didn't complete their tasks. We must build our self-confidence and optimism one by one, we must rebuild Armenia and Artsakh. meeting in Sisian Pashinyan visited Sisian city Pantheon. He then met a crowd in the main square and thanked them for "for such an understanding, for such an acceptance". During a speech in Sisian, Pashinyan said he will avoid confrontation with those who closed the road to Goris city. He said there were families and supporters who wanted to meet in Goris, and that one of the reasons the road was closed to possibly prevent that from happening. Father of a fallen soldier: Pashinyan still has 8 months to go. He must and will answer all the questions. Tomorrow, ARF Ishkhan Saghatelyan and those guys [ex-regime] must also answer. Tomorrow they [ex-regime] will say "go ask Nikol if you have questions". So Nikol should do his part and answer the questions, so others can answer theirs. Pashinyan: please try not to politicize today [about giving ARF Ishkhan's name]. Father of a fallen soldier: we must give their names. The same names and their parties are gathered in the public square today. Today you [Nikol] must enter Sisian and elsewhere with your head held high and without bodyguards. Let's get rid of pain and sorrow then we will know what to do next. various concerns Residents spoke about various border and social issues. Pashinyan: I came to look at Syunik residents in the eye. I know that I'm guilty in many ways. Our citizens deserve more. Unfortunately, not a single government, including ours, has been able to deliver what our citizens deserve. I apologize on behalf of all governments. priest vs Pashinyan While in Syunik, Pashinyan entered a church and lit a candle in memory of the fallen. Upon exiting, he came across priest Pargev Zeynalyan. Pashinyan raised his hand to greet but the priest let it hang in the air. Pashinyan left. A church representative said the priest had the right to express his political beliefs. That didn't prevent the crowd, angry at the priest's conduct, to march to the church and block its entrance. They wanted to kick the priest out. The police told the crowd not to enter. The priest refused to meet the protesters. The protesters left and promised, "not to allow the politicized priest to enter that church again". The priest denied subsequent false rumors about police allegedly raiding his house over the incident. (of course, gotta throw a couple of fake news here and there for "political persecutions" illusion)
border demarcation: Shurnukh border village suburbs
Mayor of border village Shurnukh, Syunik: The 12 houses in the lower suburbs, which according to rumors were supposed to go under Azeri control, will stay under Armenian control, according to the latest updated information. The army and Russians came and began working on border installation beyond the village area. I'm not entirely sure this is the final status, it could change, so stay tuned. There will be a demarcation process but I don't know when. Our local volunteers guard the borders. Women and children were evacuated from the area for now, just in case. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203332
re: Russians will guard parts of 21km Syunik road
MoD says: some of the 21km Goris-Kapan road goes through disputed areas. We have an agreement for Russian border guards to monitor Goris-Kapan and Goris-Davit Bek sections to ensure safe passage. Armenian and Azeri troops will be stationed on opposite sides of the road. More info in the coming days. (if you look at the map, the road is the exact border) https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203346
press unions condemn attacks on media outlets / free press
First incident. Former regime's activists attempted to prevent Pashinyan and tens of thousands of participants from marching to Yerablur Pantheon on weekend. During the incident, they identified a journalist from "Azatutyun" (pro-western) and began assaulting him. (Azatutyun office was also raided by supporters of former regime on November 10th). Second incident. 5TV is owned by Kocharyan's friend. It has a record of manipulating interviews and information in general (e.g. the March 1st documentary). Some people don't like them for this reason. 5TV reporter was cussed by Pashinyan supporters, while QP MP Andranik Kocharyan refused to take questions from him. Third incident. Opposition activists cussed Azatutyun reporters and tried to prevent them from doing the work. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038471.html
PRESS casualties during the war
HR Ombusmn: Five foreign and two Armenian reporters received severe injuries during the war. One reporter was killed. They were targeted by Azerbaijan intentionally. They were wearing PRESS uniforms, which are visibly different from army uniforms. Azerbaijan prevented reporters from working in front lines and launched a felony investigation against some international reporters (Semyon Pegov) for visiting Artsakh. https://web.archive.org/web/20201219074426/https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203315
POWs & search operation
62 Armenian soldiers remain encircled/captured near the Khtsaberd village after the previous weekend skirmishes in the narrow strip of land held by Armenia west of the Shushi-Hadrut corridor. "They are alive and well." Azerbaijan has acknowledged their presence. Work is being done with Russian peacekeepers to repatriate them. 70 others had returned a few days ago. One volunteer guard said it began after over a thousand Azeri troops moved forward and told them to leave a position; some did while others didn't. This area did not have Russian peacekeepers until the incident. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038368.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038369.html , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203369 Six POW soldiers returned home on Sunday. They were captured during the war. President Arayik thanked Putin for mediating the transfer. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038386.html Two more POWs returned on Monday. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038479.html Since the ceasefire, 1039 bodies of soldiers have been recovered from battlefields. The searches continue in the Shushi region, Martuni, Hadrut, Fizuli. 22 found today. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038417.html , https://factor.am/322564.html
felony investigations post-war / SIS launches an investigation to examine:
1) Reports of officers disobeying commands during the war, and desertion. 882 cases are being examined. Dozens have been charged. 2) Several civilian and military individuals intentionally spread alarming information to create panic among soldiers in the front lines (Vitalik's friend's incident, possibly), and claimed that the war was already decided, it was a conspiracy, and that it was pointless to fight. There are multiple felony cases regarding this. Investigation continues. 3) A felony case is launched against an officer who refused to do his duties in the southern part of Artsakh. (if this is General Movses Hakobyan, expect him to cry "political persecution" because he was the first one to give a press conference to create a narrative, a-la Dodi Gago). 4) Investigations over claims made by General Movses Hakobyan on November 19th. We're investigating a group of high-ranking officials for possibly violating protocols set by the Defense Ministry, which lead to reduced performance, which impacted the outcome of the war. We are also examining the reports, submitted by various political parties, to investigate the $5 billion offer that was made to Pashinyan by Aliyev (the offer Aliyev made to Serj and Pashinyan to give away 7 regions without a fight). 5) A felony investigation was launched [to investigate Pashinyan] after [former regime figure] Garnik Isagulyan claimed that Pashinyan took a $48 million bribe from Turkey and that his NSS chief Qyaramyan gave away 1400 passports to Azerbaijan, and helped Azeris to invade Hadrut. Isaghulyan was invited to SIS to provide evidence; he refused. The examination found no proof of these claims. A felony case was launched against Isagulyan himself for making false reports. 6) There were multiple reports in mid-November that Shushi was "sold" and an order was given for soldiers to deliberately retreat so Azeris could take it. This was investigated by SIS and NSS, courts were involved, reports from various media outlets are being investigated, including Arayik's leaked phone call and General Samvel Babayan's "post-mortem" interview. Additionally, there is an investigation of the embezzlement of property belonging to the army. Besides investigating these claims, we will also investigate their impact on the final outcome of the war. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038432.html
lawsuits / Pashinyan's son / army officer / Dmbo Gago
Volunteer soldier Mikael Mikaelyan is suing pro-Kocharyan blog "Politik" over an alleged defamation. The soldier says: Earlier I wrote that on October 1st I was yelling at deserting soldiers not to leave positions near Jabrayil. Then a similar story in Kubatlu; I wrote that I witnessed how Pashinyan's son Ashot was yelling at deserting soldiers; he was asking them to stay and help. My post received a lot of attention. It's clear that these two were separate incidents on separate dates, right? They [former regime] began calling me a liar because I could not have seen Pashinyan's son on October 1st because he was sent to the front lines on the 5th. They wrote an article "Yet another chatlakh who says everyone routed except Ashotik". https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/202933 Deputy Army General Chief of Staff Tiran Khachatryan is suing BHK MP Naira Zohrabyabn over an alleged defamation. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038342.html BHK chief Gago's casino "Onira Club" (Shangri La) was in legal trouble over alleged financial crimes. It also lost the license on July 9th over not paying the necessary fees. The casino is now suing the Finance Ministry to have its license back. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203413
306 refugees returned to Artsakh on Sunday. 1.6km of roads were cleared of explosives, and 1 house was renovated. The peacekeepers have so far renovated 23 houses and rebuilt 8km of electric lines in Martakert. 35 patients were given medical care in Chartar settlement. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038385.html
Russian sappers
Russia's Emergency Ministry presented a new de-mining vehicle that's being used in Artsakh's east. Robots play a big role in these operations; they reduce casualties. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038400.html
Turkish sappers
Turkey will send 64 sappers to join the existing 135 experts to help Azeris clear the Azeri-controlled areas. https://factor.am/322816.html
Modular housing blocs were built for 250 Russian envoy members in Stepanakert. It has apartments, a gym, a medical office, and other accommodations. Photo: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038429.html
... has officially recognized the independence of the Republic of Artsakh. The resolution condemns the Azeri aggression, Turkey's active involvement. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203392
Germany wants to purchase drone missiles
... after analyzing their use in the Artsakh war. Israeli-made Heron TP will be purchased in the coming months. digit 3:exists Germany: mhmmm 🤔 https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1038398.html
The Public Utility Commission decided to keep the electricity prices the same for low-income families, and 90% of those who consume less than 400 kW/h. The large-scale consumers will see AMD 3 increase. The rate will go into effect in February. (the nuclear plant will be closed for much of the year for the final big renovation; there were talks that it could impact prices) https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/288860/
infrastructure repairs
7km of roads and water drainage were repaired and installed in Horbategh, Vayots Dzor. It's a tourist area. Locals hope the renovations will improve their economic status. Smbataberd, Tsaghatsqar complex, and St. Hreshtakapetats are located nearby. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203420
All Armenia Fund met Artsakh govt to discuss housing for refugees and the homeless. They plan 9 new buildings with 236 in Askeran, 132 in Martuni, while the assessment for capital Stepanakert and elsewhere continues. Contracts were signed with construction firms. Artsakh govt thanked Himnadram for continuous help. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/203336
2: Vote!: So, as a reminder the deadline to register to vote is on Monday, October 5, visit http://govoteky.com/ for information on how to request your absentee ballot. Voting absentee is the safest way to vote this year because of COVID-19. So if you do not have access to the internet, you can call your county clerk's office to request your absentee ballot. The clerk's office will complete your absentee application over the phone with you. So that's an even easier step to be able to vote this year.
3: PPE: As we all know PPE is a vital part of protecting Kentuckians during this pandemic and I am proud to report that, as of this week, our Department of Public Health warehouse has completed the stockpile. There is enough PPE in Kentucky for a 120 day surge.
4: Mask Up KY
Dr Stack: And then if you look at Kentucky, we had a nice long plateau, almost three months, at about 50 new cases per million per day. Then we surged up, and we have now reached a plateau of 150 to 160 new cases per million per day. But here's the challenge: the good news is we're not exponentially growing, the bad news is, if you were to draw a line against this, we have a general upward slope which means that actually over the last four to six weeks we're losing ground, it's getting worse as we go on.
Dr Stack: The next thing is you have to get your flu shot. Flu spreads the same way can mask, you get your flu shot, there's a good chance we could shut down influenza this year. Again, if you're sloppy and careless it’s going to be impossible to know who has the flu and who has COVID, and people who are uncertain about their status are going to be subjected to a lot more needless worry, angst, and probably inconvenience, while they go through additional testing.
Dr. Stack: if you have a cough, a cold, runny nose, a fever, chills: do not leave your house, do not go to work, do not go to school. This, of all years, is not the year to be casual and spread any kind of infection, because you know what? If you’ve got a cough and a fever people aren't going to assume you’ve got the common cold, they're going to be worried you have COVID-19. Don't do it, if you're sick, stay home. If you're sick enough to need medical care, contact your primary care provider and seek advice.
Is the 15-minute test going to become available in KY? -- So the White House announced, I think it was yesterday, that it's going to be shipping a very large number of Abbott rapid tests, and there's another word that's in there, because there's been two types of rapid tests, to the country. It will be about 100 million more to the entire country. Kentucky will receive its portion based on our population. We are going to receive them all between now and December 31st.
Will the state offer any further extension on renewals of driver's license similar to what was announced in July? That order expires September 30th. -- Yes. Tomorrow, I'll be signing an executive order that allows for people to renew their driver's license by a dropbox or by mail. You still have to renew it in one of those two fashions, all the way up to February of 2021. It doesn't automatically extend
Do you have a progress report on the job Ernst & Young is doing on unemployment? -- We can provide- we will work on that tomorrow an update on E&Y's work on unemployment. It's been absolutely necessary to prevent us from falling further behind. We are gaining ground but there continue to be a significant number of claims that we are working through.
Lt. Gov: Alright, good evening everybody. I'm going to kick us off today with the Fast 4 at 4, lots of good news to share.
First is a jobs announcement. The latest company to join Kentucky's manufacturing sector is Chapin International, a manufacturer of metal compressed air sprayers based in Bavaria, New York. Chapin plans to invest nearly $5.5M, and create up to 100 full time jobs in the years ahead. The location will manufacture and distribute metal compressed air sprayers for industrial use, agriculture, home and garden, and other applications. This is a great project, located in Rockcastle County, Kentucky. Representatives from Chapin reached out to our local and state economic development teams just over two weeks ago, and the company has already found a home in an existing former manufacturing facility in the Rockcastle business park. This is a testament to Team Kentucky's dedication to helping businesses find the best fit for them, as quickly as possible. Kentucky's logistical advantages and ideal geographic location were major factors in our ability to bring Chapin to the Commonwealth. We are at the center of a 34-state distribution area in the eastern United States, with the existing infrastructure necessary for companies to ship products to customers as quickly as possible. It's one of the many advantages Kentucky offers companies, and we're glad to have the opportunity to help Chapin International business. Investments like this one from Chapin will help us to build a better Kentucky.
Alright, second up is voting. As many of you know I'm a former civics teacher and so one of my favorite things to do was to talk to my students about the democratic process and how important it is to be a responsible citizen and vote. As we all know there is record turnout expected all across the country for the 2020 general election. And as a mom, it's very exciting for me because this is the first presidential election in which Emma, Will, and Nate will all get to participate, Evelyn is the only one that doesn't get to and she's only eight months old, so. Our family has engaged in many discussions about democracy and how lucky we are to live in this country at a time when we have the right to vote. So, as a reminder the deadline to register to vote is on Monday, October 5, visit http://govoteky.com/ for information on how to request your absentee ballot. Voting absentee is the safest way to vote this year because of COVID-19. So if you do not have access to the internet, you can call your county clerk's office to request your absentee ballot. The clerk's office will complete your absentee application over the phone with you. So that's an even easier step to be able to vote this year.
Third, we have more good news about PPE. Kentuckians have continued to answer the call in the fight against COVID-19. It is this team Kentucky spirit that makes our home so special. I can tell you that spirit of unity, despite a global pandemic, is on full display through the Commonwealth from Paducah to Pikeville, and from Maysville to Monticello. Two weeks ago governor Beshear and I visited the Department for Public Health's warehouse to show the success in securing PP for frontline workers, and other Kentuckians. As we all know PPE is a vital part of protecting Kentuckians during this pandemic and I am proud to report that, as of this week, our Department of Public Health warehouse has completed the stockpile. There is enough PPE in Kentucky for a 120 day surge. Governor Beshear has talked about the time, earlier in the pandemic, when he spent days on the phone trying to secure PPE. He will tell you, he was not sure that this day would come. This is one of the successes for Kentucky in our battle against COVID-19. Our team has worked diligently to secure the protective equipment we need in our hospitals, in our long term care facilities, and other crucial frontline jobs. We appreciate those workers, our corporate partners, and everyday Kentuckians who contributed to make sure that we could reach this point.
And last but not least, we're going to talk about Mask Up Kentucky and show some really good examples from across this Commonwealth of folks who are wearing their masks and doing the right thing.
Alright, thank you to our Lieutenant Governor. And today, continuing school pride here in the Commonwealth, I'm wearing Knox County Public Schools. This was sent to me by their Director of Communications with a really nice note talking about how their community had come together to fight for each other, to protect one another, and I love- this is this the line they have under their letterhead: “Inspiring leaders and changing futures one child at a time.” So thank you to Knox Public Schools. Also want to let you know we have a new member of our production team, who is Jim, who's helping us out here, moving forward, so now we have Kenneth at home. We miss you Kenneth. We don't miss the slides, but we miss you, James, who is here working on that and now, Jim as well. Now, I've known Kenneth for a long time, he'll take that in good humor or we'll find out about it on Twitter here in just a little bit.
Alright, while that's good fun- today's COVID report is not.
Today we are reporting our second highest total that we have had since March the sixth at 1,018.
Positive cases today: 1,018 - What that means is that we are on pace to have even more cases than last week where we set a record number of cases.
Total tests conducted: 1,446,385 (PCR: 1,362,929, Serology: 55,904)
Positivity Rate: 4.24% - That's a positive thing.
Total hospitalized: 5,250
Currently hospitalized: 589
Total in ICU: 1,520
Currently in ICU: 129
On a ventilator: 81 - Please pray for those individuals
Total recovered: 11,792
New deaths today: 8 - Sadly we are reporting a loss of eight additional Kentuckians due COVID-19 or that COVID-19 was a contributing factor to their deaths.
Total Deaths: 1,170
New deaths by county: 68 M Hickman, 71 F Henderson, 77 M Floyd, 86 M Bullitt, 86 F Kenton, 85 F Floyd, 87 F Kenton, 93 F Belle
Let's remember and think about those families, let's make sure we turn on our green lights, and let's also know when we have 1,018 cases it means we're going to lose more people moving forward. 1,018 cases is far too many. It does mean we're doing a lot of tests, and that's important; because we got to find those positives- we got to make sure that we can either quarantine them or get them the help they may need in the hospital, finding those positive cases, it helps make sure that we can get them better. But 1,018 cases is going the wrong direction. So, we need you to wear a facial covering. 1,018 cases ought to be a wake up call if last week's 5,000 almost 5,000 cases wasn't. We can't let this thing get out of control again because maybe we're tired. We know the steps that it takes and I think tomorrow we'll be back again with our revised top 10 rules to defeat COVID-19, because we probably need to talk about them more and again. But, but this mask. We really need you to where it really needs you to wear it.
Racial breakdown of all cases: 80.32% Caucasian, 11.84% Black or African-American, 1.54% Asian, 5.80% Multiracial
Ethnicity breakdown of all cases: 89.17% non-Hispanic and 10.83% Hispanic
Racial breakdown of all deaths: 83.55% Caucasian, 12.80% Black or African-American, 1.12% Asian, 2.52% Multiracial
Ethnicity breakdown of all deaths: 96.41% non-Hispanic and 3.59% Hispanic
Long Term Care Facilities (PDF): 38 new residents and 23 new staff positive from yesterday, and 3 more deaths, 1 new facility.
Total facilities: 339
Total deaths: 670
Active cases: 576 residents, 437 staff
Total cases: 4413 residents, 2928 staff
K-12 Update (PDF): 15 new students and 14 new faculty/staff positive, 12 new schools from yesterday.
Total facilities: 576
Active cases: 746 students, 348 faculty/staff
Total cases: 1138 students, 411 faculty/staff
Again, this is our, our, our audited version, you're going to see the dashboard, which will have more up-to-date numbers, more immediate numbers, again remember our dashboard is what's reported by schools for the day before. It hasn't gone through the vetting of the local health department and through us but it's a way to have some immediate idea of what we may be seeing in your school or your community. And this is after it's gone through our process which can lag for five days.
University Update (PDF): 303 new students and 2 new faculty/staff positive from yesterday, 3 new facilities.
Total facilities: 58
Active cases: 1374 students, 48 faculty/staff
Total cases: 3244 students, 87 faculty/staff
I said yesterday that I believed we were at the start of a new escalation, we're certainly seeing that in today's numbers. That means we got to work harder. Now this is a war and we've won many battles. We can't walk away from the battlefield. We can't stop doing what it takes and I really need your help. In the Fall, and I think Dr Stack, who's back with us today after getting a week off, which I know is needed, will tell you that right now, moving into the fall, has the potential to be the most dangerous time we have seen in Kentucky. And it doesn't have to be, because we know that there is a vaccine in our future we just have to get to the point where we can prove that it's effective and deploy it to enough people. So are we willing to do what it takes to protect one another, until that point in time? I think that answer is yes, but we’ve got to prove it. Alright, I'm gonna ask Dr Stack to come up. He's got a couple of different things to come over to go over and then we'll answer questions.
Thank you Governor, it's good to be back. And I know that the people watching this will appreciate it was nice to go somewhere where no one recognized me for a change. So, I enjoyed my time away. I have a few updates I want to go over, So I'm going to start with the schools. So, for K-12 schools yesterday was the first day that the self-reported data from the schools went live as a public dashboard. So this was a screenshot that I took before I came here, you'll see a huge spike up on the data on the right hand side, that's what you would expect. In the interest of clarity, the schools were asked to report yesterday, the 28th, data for the first 24 hours. So information reported them in the last 24 hours, I didn't want to- this was not a tag; you're it moment, I'm not trying to go back in time, we're going to get a new steady state as we go forward. So, people may have had folks in quarantine last week or new cases last week that won't be captured here, it's a snapshot in time and it's beginning on Monday, the 28th. As I understand that we have about 2,000 K-12 schools in the state of Kentucky, that's public and private, of those we have about 1,700 plus in our database so far. Those who are not in the database we're getting outreach and emails. Thank you, we appreciate that, and we expect it, and we will add you if your name is not presented the way you want it presented, we will update those things. So we're working through those details, but it just went live yesterday.
We have over 1,300 schools who have reported data into this. So I'm satisfied that this is a good first step, but clearly when we're little over 1,300 reporting, when I just told you there's almost 2,000, we've got a ways to go. But for being only the second day that we've been doing this, thank you very much, I appreciate the effort. For those in the general public and for those who work in schools, K-12, this is a tool for you, more than anyone else. So we have other surveillance tools that I'll use for public health and I will definitely look at this but this is for the public. For those of you who have children in K-12 schools, you should be able to go here, you should be able to find your school by name, and you should be able to find the data that they've reported. If you don't find data here, I encourage you to call the school and ask them and enquire and work in partnership with them. Remember we get through this better if we work together. No one wins when we're pointing fingers at folks. This is all about trying to be honest, as open as we can, acknowledging the data, as we understand it, and being honest about that, and working together in good faith. So this is a tool for the public to try to help you be informed, at least in some closer to real-time situation as to what's going on in the school. We will report that the dashboard will update every morning with data from all the way through the previous day. And that's how that will be updated, and we'll go from here and see how that progresses over time,
Those of you who saw me discussed this a couple weeks ago will recognize this. This is the color-coded metric-based dashboard for schools to determine the mode of instruction they should be in for school. The way this works, you're supposed to look, if you're a superintendent or someone responsible for school, every Thursday we recommend it at eight o'clock at night because we update this around dinnertime or late afternoon every day. You look Thursday evening at the map that we have on our website, I didn't put the map in here, it's published right on the main page of the website every single day, you match the color of your county to the color on this map, it's that simple, and then you do the things that are down the column. Now those are recommendations and folks have asked for these recommendations or these requirements. So, the reporting I just talked about, and a metric along these lines, part of this comes from a KRS statute that talks about how schools behave during epidemics. This is all to give public health guidance so that superintendents can decide whether to have their students in person, virtual only, or hybrid instruction, and there are instructions and guidelines down there and a wealth of KDE documents. The Kentucky Department for Public Health continues to work with the Kentucky Department for Education so thank you for that partnership. We did make one change to this today, and this rests with me. I did not like that in some states, they used a 14 day criteria that when they closed to in-person instruction, they had to shut down for two weeks. I wanted to use the metric as much as possible to guide decisions to open and close and not pick, you know, an arbitrary number of 14 days. So I put in there, instead of a 14 day metric that when you hit the red level which is a very high level of disease that you had to get back down to yellow before you should consider resuming in-person instruction. I described that as Chutes and Ladders you hit a long chute and if you remember that game and you went down a couple levels. I have removed that part so now you just follow when you check on Thursday night whatever color, your county is what you should do for the following week, and you don't have to get back down to yellow. I have said from the beginning, it is not our intent to strand people in the wrong categorization. The tool is intended to identify when the disease is particularly active in your community, the entire community, that involves K-12 schools but it also involves nursing homes, and businesses, and also restaurants, and bars, the whole community has to come together- it's a community based problem, and the community has to come together to do what needs to be done to improve the situation. So the one change we made today was you don't have to go all the way back down to yellow to consider resuming in-person instruction. But we do strongly urge you to read everything that's on there, follow the guidance that's posted. And I have to place this in context before I go to my next slide. We have to take this seriously folks, it's about to get colder, people are going to go indoors more, the disease is still out there. Every place, every place on the planet Earth where people have gotten lazy and lax about following the things we recommend has seen a surge in disease, every place. And we've had some improvements in hospital care and some improvements in treatment, but we have not had any massive breakthroughs. So we are in a position where if we take our eye off the ball, we're gonna get in trouble real quick, and I'll make that point on the next slide.
So you've seen me use these, those of you who watch these briefings on a regular basis, over and over. This is from the 91-Dovic, the COVID-19 backwards website. And what it shows is, adjusted by population, the number of new cases per million people in your state on the seven day rolling average. So if you look New York got smacked hard and badly at the beginning, in fact to this day it's one of the areas that was the hardest hit in the entire United States and probably in the world, other than maybe Wuhan in the very beginning. New York has still managed to keep their disease burden relatively low, but even New York is still running that line down there, I think it’s at 50, so it's still running active disease, but it's much more suppressed. If you look at Kentucky, we're at about 152, now actually 160 new cases per million people per day. You’ll have to take my word on this, is really hot, that's running very hot. Remember this is a disease that when it gets out of control it starts to double rapidly. And so, the little simple math here you go from one to two to four to eight to 16 those numbers are still relatively small. When you go from 150 to 300 to 600 to 1,200 those are big numbers. So as you start getting those bigger numbers, that's more people sick, and after people get sick, hospitalizations follow, and after hospitalizations, that's when you can have deaths. And so what I put in here is New York as the red line. Who's relatively well controlled by comparison, if you were looking at Germany, on a different map- I can't put those that I found yet on the same map, countries and the States. If you were to take Germany, New Zealand, South Korea places that have lowered the disease and really kept it there, they would belong down near that black line at the very bottom. They've controlled the disease so well that in that country- if you didn't follow the rules you could walk out in public and you'd have a very low likelihood of getting sick but the reason it's that safe, is because they followed all the rules and they kept things closed down so that people in those countries are remarkably safe. But it's because they have very strong adherence to the things we're recommending be done. So, the US overall is the orange line. And if you look, we had a surge in the beginning, and a plateau and a surge and then it came back down and now it's on the upswing. I don't remember the latest data but as recently as the last 48 hours there were at least 26 states who are having a noteworthy positive increase in cases.
And then if you look at Kentucky, we had a nice long plateau, almost three months, at about 50 new cases per million per day. Then we surged up, and we have now reached a plateau of 150 to 160 new cases per million per day. But here's the challenge: the good news is we're not exponentially growing, the bad news is, if you were to draw a line against this, we have a general upward slope which means that actually over the last four to six weeks we're losing ground, it's getting worse as we go on. And it's getting worse at a time that schools are going back into session, colleges and universities are in session, bars and restaurants are open. Remember we said we tried to take a multifactorial decision making approach to this, we looked at a lot of different things, we recognize the importance of the economy, and people's wellness, and being at work, and activities, but we can't afford to let this get out of control. Here's the thing for those who like casino metaphors, the house always wins. So here's the thing: people may flaunt the rules and disregard the rules and you know what? You may luck out, and it may work out okay. But the bug, the virus, is the house here. I don't know what county, or what city, or where, but if we ignore the rules someone's going to get bitten and they're going to get bitten bad. I don't have to guess on that, I can tell you that with absolute certainty: Everywhere that people got sloppy the virus got out of control and took a lot more lives. So please, when I talk about these wrap up points I'm going to make here, please take this seriously. I hope you've seen over the last six to seven months, we have gone through a period in the spring where there was so much we didn't know, and there was legitimate reason to be terrified of what could happen. And now we've gotten into this phase where we know that if we take certain simple steps that we can control the spread of the disease. Now people are really tired of this, they're fed up with hearing about this stuff, and they want to get back to their lives, but I'm going to tell you, that's not happening until we get to some time next year and probably not until past the summertime, because even when we get the vaccines- and I'm glad that things have gotten revised at the federal level because now it's aligning with what I was saying for weeks before, is that we're not going to have sufficient amount of quantity of vaccination materials to get everybody until we get to the summer or beyond next year. Hopefully we'll get something in late December or early January, but it'll be a small amount and it will be for the highest risk or highest targeted individuals, and then we'll move forward from there. And when we get to a better place where we have more information and it's appropriate we'll update you on vaccination plans, which we're actively working on too. But until then, we've got to wear masks, we have to physically distance more than six feet, you have to wash your hands. You've got to do three other things, if you have a cough, a cold, runny nose, a fever, chills: do not leave your house, do not go to work, do not go to school. This, of all years, is not the year to be casual and spread any kind of infection, because you know what? If you’ve got a cough and a fever people aren't going to assume you’ve got the common cold, they're going to be worried you have COVID-19. Don't do it, if you're sick, stay home. If you're sick enough to need medical care, contact your primary care provider and seek advice.
The next thing is you have to get your flu shot. The United States apparently ordered 200 million doses of influenza vaccination this year which is higher than the 170 million they did the year before and even that was apparently a peak of sorts. You have to go out and get your flu shot. Let's make sure we use all those doses and force the government to order more of them, because if you get the flu shot, it's going to reduce the burden of flu. And if you wear your mask you know what? Flu spreads the same way can mask, you get your flu shot, there's a good chance we could shut down influenza this year. Again, if you're sloppy and careless it’s going to be impossible to know who has the flu and who has COVID, and people who are uncertain about their status are going to be subjected to a lot more needless worry, angst, and probably inconvenience, while they go through additional testing.
This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here. NFA. DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino The Big Picture
Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn [1]
Casinos: ~$75Bn
Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average. Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here. Digging Deeper DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack. For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range. This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later. Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform. So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino. As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform. Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino. Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth [3]
Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years [3].
They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies [4]
On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability
Things to look for when going Long - Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized - Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability - Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate [5]. This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% [6]
Share Price Target Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73 Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10 Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47 These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base. At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs. Share Price drivers / considerations: - Continued multiple expansion
Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year
Management Team Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards. His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around. Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys. Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward. TL;DR: If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level. [1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19 [2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302 [3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d [4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20 [5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php [6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
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St. Louis city, county begin to ease COVID-19-related restrictions
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