GODDAMIT. BEEN SITTING ON THIS FOR A MONTH, AND NOW IT'S ALL BEEN BLOWN TO SHIT.
Maybe it stays the same since Morey was likely 'inspired' to step down so that Tilman could get the China money back and will continue assisting the new regime from the shadows, but as I have no clue at all what the future is going to bring and don't want to re-write this piece for the planned 'GM write-up' series that was supposed to be starting after the Finals, I'm just gonna drop it here and let anyone else who wants to take over do it.
FUCK TILMAN FERTITTA.
I'm out.
State of the team
After a disappointing bubble performance that did not end in a Championship, many people are questioning if the Rockets window has officially closed. In all likelihood, it has; but it is not yet locked, so with the right moves it can be opened enough to squeeze out another deep run or two that can finally break through if the team finds a brick of luck for once.
What those right moves are and how to accomplish them are the challenge posed to Daryl Morey and his crew. There are a number of constraints that will make this difficult, including a lack of draft assets and moveable contracts that are not integral to the team's success, but the most challenging proposition will again be owner Tilman Fertitta's finances.
While some critics may believe that the Rockets small ball experiment was a failure, management will likely point to the fact that 'defense' was not nearly as much of a problem in the playoffs as 'offense' and that Russell Westbrook's obvious impairment from a quad injury was the primary factor in underachieving desired expectations. The general belief in the front office is that the formula is not broken so much as unlucky. Another couple of chances will hopefully bring the health necessary for a breakthrough.
Daryl Morey's top-stated priority entering the off-season was re-signing coach Mike D'Antoni. Well, D'Antoni ended any talk of that by opting to take his services elsewhere before the team plane had even departed Orlando. This leaves the team in search of a new head coach before any other moves can really be considered, since whoever gets the position will likely hope to have a bit of say in any of the roster decisions that need to be made.
The team is casting a wide net in their search having interviewed candidates like frontrunners Tyronn Lue and Jeff Van Gundy, as well as Kenny Atkinson, Wes Unseld Jr., and Stephen Silas. The new coach will need to garner the instant respect of a veteran-laden team (possibly possessing enough cachet to actually inspire a different style of play?), and may need to fulfill Fertitta's desire to make headlines, favoring a big-name hire. It must be included that there is even a slim chance that D'Antoni returns to the role now that Doc Rivers has swooped his pre-supposed landing spot in Philly, but I expect the final candidates may come from the following list of assistant coaches and thus (
completely coincidentally) cheaper names in case a need arises to go in another direction:
Sam Cassell - The former Rockets legend is currently serving as an assistant coach for Doc Rivers. Frequently cited as one of the top assistants ready to take the next step. As a former All-Star point guard, he may be able to command the respect of Westbrook and Harden enough to offset his lack of head coaching experience. His big balls could "Make Houston Clutch Again".
John Lucas - The Rockets Assistant Coach is very familiar with the system and the current players. He provides continuity and a cheap, short-term contract that would allow for an easy 'out' if things do not work in the next year or two (which is the optimistic extent of the title hopes for this current iteration of the Rockets)
Chris Finch - An ex-RGV Vipers Head Coach now working as an assistant in New Orleans. He is a savant on offense, on very good terms with Morey and his philosophy, and due for his 'chance' in the bigs. Given the success of Nick Nurse, another coach who won a G-League Championship for the RGV Vipers, I feel as if Chris Finch should end up getting the call (although he appears to have dropped off the radar).
The new head coach will have a challenging job of needing to instantly compete with a roster of vets who are notorious for not being as flexible in their approach to the game as might be desired. This team is not only 'set' in its ways mentally to the point where an attempt to change the team philosophy could easily backfire and result in another lost season, it is also relatively 'set' in its ability to make personnel changes. So expect the new coach to provide more of an 'extension' of the current Moreyball philosophy than a completely different style.
2021 Houston Rockets Roster and Salary
PLAYER NAME | SALARY CAP HIT | DETAILS (contract values rise) |
Russell Westbrook | 41,358,814 | 2 more yrs + player option |
James Harden | 41,254,920 | 2 more years + player option |
Eric Gordon | 16,869,276 | 4 more years |
Robert Covington | 12,138,345 | 2 more years |
PJ Tucker | 7,969,537 | expiring |
Danuel House | 3,717,000 | 2 more years |
Ben McLemore | 2,283,034 | expiring |
Chris Clemons | 1,517,981 | 2 more years of team options |
David Nwaba | 1,862,250 | team option |
TOTAL | 128,971,157 | |
Things look relatively straight-forward for the Rockets. All of their main rotation guys are already signed and set to return with the exception of Jeff Green and Austin Rivers. The Rockets are prime candidates to start the season off by basically "running it back".
Considering Green has enjoyed great success in Houston's system and seems to have established good chemistry within his role in the system, he will absolutely be considered an important piece to re-sign. He has played on minimum-level contracts for the past few years, so unless another contender surprisingly decides to use part of their MLE on him, he should be able to return on a 1+1 veteran minimum contract.
Austin Rivers has a player option for $2,369,663. It is considered highly unlikely that he will opt-in to this (although he will be welcomed back with open arms if he does). If he leaves, the team will likely look to find a replacement ball-handleperimeter defender.
The hopeful addition of Jeff Green to the list of signed players takes the team to a total of 10 contracts, meaning Morey will look to add 5 more players into the fold.
Positional needs: The Rockets took one big step closer to the idea of 'position-less' basketball by banishing their traditional centers last season. The big question is, will they continue this philosophy into 2021?
The answer to this may partially depend upon who the next coach is. As previously stated, the advanced age of this particular roster resulting in an extremely small window for success, combined with the players' familiarity with the current roles and system and the reduced off-season leads me to believe that the small ball experiment will continue into the 2021 season. Not only was it proven effective offensively at unlocking the best version of Russell Westbrook since his 2017 MVP campaign, the hybrid switching system the team utilized in the first half of the season to account for Clint Capela's reduced ability to guard perimeter players was not as successful as the switch-everything system the team implemented in the playoffs; so unless the team can get a larger center who can effectively switch 1-5, it is unlikely that 'Center' is going to be seen as a top priority.
Look for the team to try to focus their search on finding long, stretchy, big forwards, as they did with the late-season signings of Jeff Green, DeMarre Carroll, and David Nwaba. They will also try to fill the position of 'tertiary ball handler' should Rivers choose to go elsewhere.
Although Austin may sign another 1+1 minimum deal with the team, it is more likely that he will look for a bigger role (and payday) on another team. There is a small chance he could be used in a sign and trade (Houston has his Early Bird Rights allowing him to sign a contract up to around $8M), so he may serve as salary filler in building a larger sign & trade, but note that such a move will surely push Houston well into the luxury tax, bringing us to...
Luxury Tax Issues: The expected threshold will probably fall around $132-133M. Houston is brushing up against that with only 9 players under contract currently.
Bear in mind that ownership has suffered catastrophic economic distress this year due to Fertitta's business interests in casinos and restaurants (not to mention that he was never interested in paying tax even in better times with a stronger team). Unlike this season, next year should see a large cash pay-out to non-tax teams as many contenders who were below the tax last year due to their participation in Free Agency will be utilizing exceptions that push them into the luxury tax (Golden State in particular has been making overtures at filling its TPE, which would result in one of the largest tax bills on record). Despite his questionable claims that he is financially solvent and ready to pay tax to field a contender, Tilman Fertitta will be happy to be an owner that avoids paying tax again and instead receives a check from the league. Daryl Morey will have his work cut out for him to achieve that, but after accomplishing it in 2019 and 2020 with masterful tax-reducing moves at the trade deadline, there is little doubt he can (and likely will) do it again in 2021. 2 years ago, he reduced Ryan Anderson's $20M contract through a series of moves to Iman Shumpert's $12M and last year he reduced Capela's $17M hit to Covington's $11M bill. Eric Gordon's $17M is the obvious candidate for reduction this year, and there are a variety of ways in which it could be done.
Potential roster moves
Draft Per usual, Houston does not have any draft picks. They do have almost $5M in cash remaining with which they could purchase a draft pick (potentially even 2 late ones); but most likely Morey will work the pool of undrafted talent to try to find a couple new 2-way contract candidates.
Free Agency: There are unlikely to be any major moves in the off-season aside from signing 6 players to veteran minimum contracts. Jeff Green and Gerald Green are likely signings. Michael Frazier may have earned a promotion to the main squad, but will more likely continue to stay in the G-League on a 2-way contract. Tyson Chandler and Austin Rivers are candidates who are less likely to be re-signed, but may end up filling the same roles they did this year. Otherwise, expect Morey to take fliers on guys who have high upside in the system that are cut by other teams or don't get the larger contracts they are hoping to find and willing to take short term deals in Houston in an effort to rebuild their value.
Although technically below the tax, using the Full MLE would hard-cap the Rockets at a level providing almost no flexibility for in-season maneuvers, something Morey despises, so the taxpayer mini-MLE is the only practical option available this off-season. However, if avoiding the luxury tax is a priority (
Narrator: "It is."), then using the MLE at all is not going to be feasible. Houston has avoided using the MLE for the past 2 seasons (with the exception of utilizing small portions of it to lock up undrafted players on cheap 3-year deals), and is likely to follow in that path this year.
Morey traditionally does his best work at the trade deadline, and will likely look to that time frame again in the 2021 season.
There is one (unlikely) way that the Rockets could utilize their full MLE - by sending a current player to another team for less salary in return, leading us to...
Trades: The Rockets do not have a lot of positive-value contracts they can part with that are not a critical part of their core.
Danuel House is on a good contract, and the team may be looking to move him if they believe his bubble antics were problematic for future chemistry. He could likely be moved with no problem. This would also be an easy way to cut a couple million dollars in salary, if necessary.
PJ Tucker and Robert Covington are also on good deals, but are crucial to the Rockets scheme. It is extremely unlikely they will be dealt. James Harden and Russell Westbrook are also unlikely to go anywhere in the off-season. If disaster strikes or a deal that can't be refused arises, then there is a small chance one or more of these 4 could be moved at the deadline.
As stated before, Eric Gordon is the most likely candidate to be traded. While his improved bubble play may have gotten his contract closer to 'neutral' value, it is likely that a pick would need to be attached to it in order to bring back a player of value, particularly from a rebuilding team, which is also the traditional place where he could be sent into cap space to avoid bringing back 80% in matching salary. However due to his age and injury history, he is probably only of interest to a team that fancies itself as 'contending' for something. There is a small chance that he could be sent to Golden State, as his contract fits within their Traded Player Exception and he fills a position of need, but it is unlikely that Houston is anxious to improve a conference rival (however, the idea that he could possibly bring back draft capital and increase the size of the league's payout check to non-taxpaying teams make this a scenario that can not be discarded outright).
Sending Gordon into space is the best way for Houston to access its full MLE (as well as creating a hefty TPE of their own). However, it would likely have to happen in the window after the draft and before free agency shakes out in order to be an option. And it would likely entail losing Houston's only first round pick that is available for trade, making later moves more difficult (so I don't expect this to happen).
Available Picks that can be traded:
YEAR | ROUND | DETAILS/NOTES |
2021 | 1 | worst of HOU, OKC, MIA |
2022 | 1 | cannot be used this year in conjunction with the 2021 pick |
2021 | 2 | swap rights with Philadelphia |
2024 | 2 | from GS |
*
All of the team's own second round picks from 2024 and beyond Houston does not have a lot of draft capital. Morey will surely look to use the 2021 first at the trade deadline to move a contract, allowing him to keep the 2022 first (Houston's last tradeable first round pick thanks to the Stepien Rule) for use next year if necessary.
Possible scenarios: Which contract(s) and for what type of deal are the only questions, and only time will tell what those needs are (best player available/positional need/salary cap savings) and how to best fulfill them. There are a ton of options and no one can tell what sort of needs or opportunities will arise by mid-way through next season. But by waiting to strike until that point, Morey maximizes his potential to do the best thing for the team going forward, whether it is a small move for tax savings, a big splash for a disgruntled superstar, or even the beginning of a total rebuild.
Waiting until the deadline also gives guys like Gordon and Westbrook a chance to overcome the injuries that plagued them in 2020 and raise their trade value. Trading either one of these contracts for multiple smaller contracts (at 80% value) is the fastest and easiest way to get to within striking distance of avoiding the tax again this year, and allowing Morey to 3-peat in cap wizardry.
I suppose I'll predict that 1) Gordon and a pick will be headed someplace like Philadelphia, who could use his shooting (maybe for Josh Richardson and Zaire Smith?) or perhaps, 2) Morey will work with Monte McNair in Sacramento to do a deal for someone (maybe Nemanja Bjelica and Jabari Parker?), much like he did with his other recent protégé-turned-GM, Gersson Rosas, at the 2020 deadline.
Of course, there is always the chance that Fertitta will find some money in his couch cushions, or have a come-to-Jesus moment that inspires him to pay the tax, which would open up the possibility of trading for a player who makes equal or more money or potentially even using the MLE this year. In the extremely off-chance that that happens, a perfect candidate would be Myles Turner in Indiana, who would provide the stretch-big rim protector that would fit so well in Houston's system. Aaron Gordon would also fit really well into Houston's system as long as he can hit a corner 3. Doing either of these trades and avoiding the tax is within the realm of feasibility if another contract (e.g. House or Tucker's) is included with Gordon's.
And to wrap this up, a few potential FA targets to use the MLE (or a potential S&T) on if it somehow becomes possible: Serge Ibaka, Jerami Grant, Aaron Baynes, Davis Bertans, Bogdan Bogdanovich, a Morris twin, Danilo Gallinari, Anthony Davis.
submitted by Finally, some info!
I'll divide this into details from the trailer and details from the site (there's a lot of the latter), with a few bits of speculation thrown in (I'll make it clear which details are confirmed and which are just mine though):
The trailer (in roughly the order of appearance)
: - It starts with the Goro tries to kill Joker scene, but Joker has a flashback/ vision partway through to a frozen in time street, where he hears a girl's voice through a static television (the new girl, Kasumi's)? This could just be a clever edit for the sake of the trailer, but I think there will be a new ending and this will play into it (more on that later).
- Edit 5: According to u/Monsieur_Valjean, her dialogue is "私が夢を奪ったんです" (Watashi ga yume wo ubattan desu), which translates to either:
(If spoken informally:) I stole/took away my dream. (If spoken informally:) I took away your dream. - Edit 7: The trailer has been translated and the translation used is "I took away all their dreams." (*5)
- The latter could either be benevolent (since she pulled Joker away from his confrontation with Akechi), or something more sinister. (*3)
- Joker's grappling hook
from Smash is now in the game (or rather, it made an early appearance in Smash) and has changed the Palaces to suit it. For example there's now a new puzzle involving kicking a giant Kamoshida statue in the mouth to open a door (perhaps the statue and door in the gym?) Okumura's Palace also has a point where you use the hook on a moving platform to reach a new area. - Incidentally, this probably means the rope you use to get into Madarame's Palace will be replaced with said grappling hook, or maybe entering his Palace will be changed entirely?
- Edit 5: Many of you have pointed out that Joker always had the grappling hook, but he only used it in menu transitions. Thank you, all!
- Edit 19: Assuming this trailer is also for newcomers to P5, showing off the first dungeon in the game makes sense - there's not much to spoil, but why Okumura's Palace - and why just a single scene? Note that the scene shows Joker being carried somewhere by a small platform through space. Is this a sign that the infamous airlock puzzle has been cut, with the team using grappling hooks to traverse those areas instead?
- Edit 12: There's a cutscene with Joker seeing Kasumi outside and the two greeting each other. I didn't think it was worth mentioning before, but this does confirm that the two have some rapport before she's roped into the Phantom Thieves business/ when they're away from the other Thieves. But Morgana's poking out of Joker's bag when he smiles at her and makes no effort to hide himself - does this mean she already knows about him (and thus the Metaverse and Joker's double life)? Or does she simply think Joker smuggles his cat to school? At least she doesn't consider him a threat like everyone else!
- This could either be because he helped her out (more on this soon) or because she simply doesn't believe/ care about the rumours surrounding him (like Shiho)...but maybe it's because she knows more about his situation (and Shido and/ or his Metaverse dealings) than she lets on?
- There is a new location in the game (more on this later), home to a variety of hangout locations including a darts board and aquarium.
- Edit 15: Thanks to MysticDistance, we see that the train transition now includes a backdrop of Shibuya through the train's windows! What an awesome little detail to add!
- There's now a counsellor working at the school, though there's more info on him on the site so I'll address him there.
- Edit 13: We see a silhouette on the TV screen from the start of the trailer, and Joker seems to recognise it. While it's of course hard to judge the identity of a silhouette, it does have a slim figure and a rounded head, much like the hair of our new Thief...
- Edit 17: Here's a better shot at the figure. While Kasumi's uniform gives her the appearance of having broad shoulders, the silhouette doesn't look too much like her. While there's still a chance it is her, here's my speculation from that post:
Those shoulders look too broad to be Kasumi's (and doesn't seem to have long hair or a ponytail), but they have hair so can't be Shido. But those are definitely seams on the edges of the shoulders...it's Takuto, isn't it?
Maybe Kasumi talks first and Takuto hijacks the message and/ or kidnaps or attacks her while she's delivering it? Maybe they're the same person under different personas personalities? Atlus has done weirder stuff!
- Futaba has an AOA now!
- Unison Attacks from P4G make a return! Think of these as mini-AOAs featuring pairs of Phantom Thieves. The examples in this trailer are Haru/ Morgana and Ryuji/ Makoto.
- New story events! There appears to be a sports-day event that Makoto is overseeing. Joker also steps in to save Kasumi from a creep - presumably on his way back from the aforementioned event since he's still in his sports clothes.
- Edit 18: There's a new option in cutscenes like this. While "Skip" is still mapped to Options, Square is now "Auto-Advance" and the Log has been moved to L3. This'll be really useful for those cutscenes that auto-advanced by default despite being unvoiced in the core game, those always bugged me (especially since you couldn't predict when they'd occur so going to the menu between cutscenes was always a waste of time).
- We see Kasumi in the Metaverse, followed by more scenes of the new location, Kichijoji, where we can hang out with the full PT group at once instead of hanging out one at a time (at least in the darts/ pool area). Kasumi isn't here though, which suggests she joins the group last (or that she is simply unavailable at this point of the story).
- Edit 16: Note that Makoto has just thrown a dart right before we see Joker do the same. Is this part of a cutscene (story or otherwise) or does this mean we'll get to compete here against the other Thieves; maybe even as sub-teams?
- We see Kasumi in action, scoring a Critical Hit to boot! She wields a
rapier and...I can't tell if it's a pistol or a sawn-off shotgun, but I can tell that it is fan-cy! - Edit 2: Thank you, u/Enzo-Unversed for pointing out that Kasumi isn't using a rapier. I did some further research and it looks like she uses an estoc, which is a narrow blade used for thrusting as she does in the trailer. The example on Wikipedia has a curved hilt while Kasumi's has a straight hilt, but I don't know if that means anything for estoc-kind.
- Edit 2: u/AvatarWanderful identifies her gun as a lever-action rifle. I initially thought it was a hunting rifle before seeing its length, but that fits the description! And I still think the engraving is really neat!
- We get some scenes of the Thieves in a new crumbling place in the Metaverse, interrupted by a scene of Kasumi dancing in front of a crowd hard enough to work up a sweat (more on this later)*, ending with Joker falling off of whatever he's holding on into what appears to be a floating staircase. This looks an awful lot like the stairs in the background of the Velvet Room in PQ to me and, coupled with the blue hue to everything, makes me think the new Palace will be related to the ol' VR in some way. Maybe we change Igo Yaldabaoth's heart directly?
- * Edit 18: Could this be how we first see Kasumi? It uses a lot of dynamic camera angles and plays up the mystery of who she is, so perhaps this is her first appearance and we later meet her "for real" after the sports day incident mentioned above. Also, if she's already showing her skills and drawing a crowd, does this mean Kamoshida has his sights set on her this time around? We know how he gets when someone threatens his volleyball team, and he's no stranger to blackmailing female students. He may still be messing with Ann, but why not Kasumi as well? What's an extra year in difference to him?
- Edit 7: The start of the above scene features a shot of Haru inside Morgana. More importantly though, is the bottom right of the image. You may have assumed it was Makoto driving, but her arms don't have stripes like that! Thank you, u/quitethewaysaway, for pointing out that Goro is still with the party at this point in his Loki attire!
- Edit 20: A small detail, but this may mean we can buy equipment for Goro now, as well as access The Hero with a Bow, the book on Robin Hood we would have gotten from the library when he joined but was removed from the final release. This is in addition to Kasumi's equipment and book of course, unless she's the one to miss out this time. Which would be suspicious now that we know why Goro didn't get a book or weapons! (Also, it'll be interesting to see how their weapons are categorised, since both use swords.)
- Edit 16: As many have noted the trailer bares a striking resemblance to Into The Spider-Verse's intro, with the various logos and box art "glitching" into alternate versions as they appear - could this be another hint that the characters enter into separate "dream" worlds at some point in the game? Maybe even multiple times?
Edit 8:
I wrote another post analysing the English fan-translation of the trailer, including some further speculation about Gnostic influences. Please check it out too if you have the time!
The website: There's a ton of stuff here, as I said before!
- Edit 5: Again from u/Monsieur_Valjean, the text below the shot of Joker at the top of the page ends with "arata na kyoteki," meaning "new powerful/ultimate/grand enemy," which again hints at a new villain and thus new Palace to beat.
From the opening "reel" of screenshots:
- The box art: Goro looks much more sinister here than he did on the base cover, which makes me wonder if his betrayal is more...upfront this time around.
- There's an event with Ren, Kasumi and Goro at a french cafe. This could be part of one or both of their Confidants, which makes me wonder when this happens - after all, Goro's only part of the team for a month and this makes you wonder when Kasumi joins. (*1)
- Edit 15: Thanks to a translation by MysticDistance, we know that Akechi's line is "Say, Kasumi-san, what's your opinion on things regarding the Phantom Thieves?" Isn't this exactly what he asked her in the teaser trailer?
- Edit 18: Given what happens later on, this question couldn't work in the later stages of the game due to how the story progresses (and would be utterly impossible due to Goro's situation near the end, whether he survives this time around or not). And because Kasumi's answer was important enough to be the basis of the teaser and seems important to her character, I don't think it's something wed be able to miss. In other words, I believe this to be a fixed event in the story. (It may also confirm that she isn't a founding member of the Thieves, though she may also be lying to throw Akechi off...in which case it'd be interesting if she's telling the truth about her lack of faith in the Thieves while being one herself, especially with her leader
and possible love interest right beside her!)
- Kamoshida in boss form now has Mishima as a lackey instead of the masked students he had before.
- Edit 15: Thanks to the same tweet as above, we know Kamoshida is saying "You're too slow, Mishima! You simpleminded fool!" Which seems to confirm Mishima is his new lackey in this boss and that he'll speak directly to his minions. Also note the "warped" text box: does this change affect all Shadows, Bosses or just in-combat dialogue? And if the latter, will there also be UI changes for when your own allies comment on the battle or when you issue commands?
- Another image confirms that there is a sporting event at Inokashira Park where Joker hands something back to Kasumi. (Possibly something she dropped while being harrassed?)
- Edit 6: u/FrozenKlondyke suggests this could be her student ID and that this is when she and Joker first meet (properly, at least) since she's introducing herself as a first-year here (you can see the 1 in her speech bubble too).
- Edit 15: As pointed out in this tweet chain, it's a nice bit of characterisation that Joker is still willing to help out a girl being harassed despite what happened the last time he tried. D'aww...
- There's a cutscene featuring the girls in kimonos, but more on that later (also, it seems there are a LOT of new cutscenes in Royal!) The next image is very suspicious as it features Futaba sitting with someone who looks very like her mother. Even Joker - in a new winter outfit (again, more on that later) - is confused! Maybe Wakaba is only in a coma or something this time around? Could this be tied to Futaba & Sojiro's Confidants a la Chidori in P3? Or a "true" ending?
Section 1: Kasumi Yoshizawa and Takuto Maruki: - Kasumi is a skilled gymnast. She's been great at it even since junior school, so Shujin has high hopes for her. She also joined at the same time as Joker (she is a first year, after all), which is probably how Kamoshida hasn't gotten his claws on her yet. This explains why her outfit is basically a gymnast's uniform plus a jacket (besides just fanservice) and her dancing to a large crowd in the trailer. The sharp mask and flower on the other side of her sheath are nice touches though~ (*4)
- The first Kasumi screenshot seems to confirm the ability to have lunches with your friends at school. For those who don't know, this was an intended feature in the base game but removed (though removed late enough that the necessary files are still in the game). You could also have lunch with Kawakami - and anyone else who went to Shujin really, which of course now includes Kasumi
(but not Futaba or Yusuke :/)! - Edit 1: The site also describes her as being key to the plot, so chances are she is indeed the voice from the start of the trailer and it does indeed tie into a new ending.
- As u/icecreamsnow pointed out here, her being a gymnast may be why her cosplayer did a ribbon dance at the end of today's concert.
- Edit 10: On both days, her cosplayer ends with a nervous look on her face before looking around and smiling. She did the exact same thing twice, so could this be a hint towards Kasumi's own personality? Is she shy despite her talent, and will we see this after her dance from the trailer?
- Edit 3: In addition to being an epic shot of Kasumi in action (her black outfit goes really well with her red hair and eyes!) This shot also shows a new location in the Casino Palace. I'm confident in saying it's the Casino Palace because of the dice and enemy design, but this looks to be some sort of storage room? Almost like the backstage of a performance hall!
- Edit 14: Also, there being enemies behind her - in Shadow forms at that - leads me to believe this is a cutscene. Note that her pose is different from when she performed a Critical Attack in the trailer; her gun is on her shoulder instead of her firing yet and her feet are in a different position. It's an amazing pose all the same, of course!
And it really highlights the frills on her sleeves\~ - Edit 19: But this begs the question: why is she the focus of a cutscene at this point, and such an action-packed cutscene at that? Could this be how she makes her appearance, already having her Persona and Thief outfit? It'd support the evidence that she's one of the last members to join the team and the suggestions that she has her own motives for joining the Thieves if she can already fight and hold her own in the Metaverse before meeting them. It'd double as a nice parallel to Haru and Akechi, who also join partway through a dungeon and are already capable of fighting respectively. Also, her fighting "guards" in the middle or end of the Casino for her debut would also parallel Joker fighting multiple guards in a cutscene in the prologue/ end of the Casino as his debut. Of course, this in turn means the shot of Kasumi in a blue room would have to come from the end of the game OR as a flashback to whenever she got her Persona and whatever event shaped who she is today.
- Edit 20: Following from the above paragraph, she does seem awfully confident with her rifle to just sling it over her shoulder single-handed like that. Granted, every Thief is an instant expert with their weapons,
but something about this seems especially proficient. Maybe it's just the leathe epicness of the scene and her outfit. - Edit 20: Regardless of if this is Kasumi's introduction and whether she's an adversary or if this is just a cool moment for her in a cutscene, let's go back to the reasoning of this being some sort of storage room - why are we here? In the core game we had to "un-cheat" in the Casino's games. Could this be related to one of those? If so, will there be a reworking of the two games we directly interfere with (i.e. the first two), or will we get to fix the second two games this time around - for example, are we currently on our way to/ back from fixing the lights from the Dark Room challenge? And all of this hinges on: are those games still in the Palace? Or have they been removed/ replaced completely, and this room is something completely unrelated to them or tied to (fixing) a new game?
- Edit 18: I couldn't find this information for myself on the site or magazine, but a lot of people have talked about this so it's highly likely I just missed it. Anyway, this tweet (again from Mystic) elaborates on her bio, adding that she's also a transfer student (this part I still have doubts about) and despite joining the Thieves has her own motives (more on this later on and in my follow up post). The second tweet also states that she "holds Ren in high regard" despite her opinion of the Thieves. Perhaps this is why her Thief outfit is so similar to his; without even seeing Joker her psyche was affected by Ren's ideologies enough that her image of rebellion changed match his? Or is she fond of him because they were already similar despite their ideologies?
- Takuto is a new Confidant and comes in as a counsellor for students after Kamoshida's confession. As the trailer shows, there are voiced scenes for him interacting with Ann without Joker needing to be around, so I assume he works similarly to the confessional in the base game. He has the Consultant Arcana which doesn't exist in the standard or Thoth set, but the number is 1, meaning he's a renamed Magus (like how Hunger from P4G was a renamed Lust). This makes sense, since the Magician (the basis for the Magus Arcana) is meant to be the Fool's guide/ first ally on his journey to the World.
Section 2: And now Lady Ann and I will finally... happy cat noises
- Edit 5.5: On the topic of the mysterious boy, note that he wears a black jacket (like Morgana's fur), white trousers (like the pads of his feet) and wears a yellow necklace (like Morgana's scarf). It has to be him! The only question now is whether the change happens as part of the story or as a result of completing his Confidant, and thus if his Confidant is optional now.
In any case, this confirms a "Golden" ending where Joker doesn't need to turn himself in to ensure Shido gets punished. Maybe this involves the "vision" at the start of the trailer and getting Goro to confess on his behalf instead? Or maybe the Yaldabaoth situation is handled differently in such a way that gives Sae the evidence she needs to convict him (assuming the bonus dungeon is in fact the Velvet Room)?
Edit 1: But this also begs the question: what will we do in those three months? Will the Metaverse survive the final boss this time around, or will the last three months be purely for social stats and Confidants? Will at least Mementos survive, so we can complete Confidants, or will they be re-written (by default or after the end of the game) so that Mementos won't be necessary for them?
Section 3: This details the additions to the overworld and Metaverse.
School Life
Phantom Life
- Some enemies will now appear with a purple aura (similar to those that go berserk) and will be stronger than ordinary ones. They appear as soon as the first Palace it seems, which is an interesting way to keep new and old players on their toes.
- Something can happen in the Velvet Room which turns the place red, though no-one seems to notice.
- Edit 3: Persona Central's translation states that the red light is part of the alarms going off, though what this means is still a mystery.
- Edit 8: Since Goro seems to be sticking around, the alarm could be him joining as a fellow resident of the Room. Maybe even Kasumi (too), as suggested by some of you!
- Edit 27: Remember how everyone gets limited access to the Wild Card because the P3 and P4 Heroes are in close proximity in PQ? What if everyone gets the Wild Card here for the same reason, wouldn't that be an amazing late-game boost for everyone, add a ton more complexity and nuance to team-building and give you a way to keep your favourite characters on your team? And what if having Kasumi around (Wild Card or not) means Joker and Goro keep their full potential instead of losing it like in PQ? What if having Kasumi around gives the three of them (or even the whole team) even more benefits, like a new evolution to their base Personas?
I keep forgetting to add this one... - P.S. It'd also be interesting to spend the new semester in the Velvet Room with the door unlocked too. Maybe we'll be able to explore it and see the dungeons where everyone else gets imprisoned - if not even more? (Speaking of, while Goro may be arrested and feel like he deserves it to boot, will Kasumi? She's a mysterious one after all!)
- New items can appear in dungeons, on plinths that looks like they came straight out of the depths of Mementos.
Spec-Up
- There are new Network functionalities added, though what they are isn't explained. You can warp immediately to the hideout though, I'm looking forward to that! (Even if it isn't available in this particular screenshot...) Edit 18: Is the option unavailable because there's no Palace to infiltrate? If so, what about Mementos? Or is the Metaverse unavailable for story reasons (as it sometimes was in the core game)? But why so early on - is the reason related to the new story? By the way, I think it's safe to assume the Circle and X options will be swapped in the Western release - Japan often uses Circle for "Yes" and X for "No" in menus and worldwide releases almost always swap these around (e.g. in the base Persona 5 as well as in other games like Nier:Automata).
- Shoji Meguro and Lyn have done new work for the game, with the latter also singing new opening, ending and battle songs. Maybe we'll get a battle theme on the level of Rivers in the Desert!
- The game will be PS4 Pro enabled, meaning better graphics on that system. Also, the game is PS4 exclusive. Hopefully P5S will throw a bone to our Switch brethren!
---
Edit 1: Thanks to the screenshot
in this thread (thank you,
u/ZuskatoIsR3D) we can see Kasumi's stats in relation to everyone else's. Her numbers are lower than the other three, though this could just mean she recently joined the group and needs to catch up, but her SP is less than half her HP. This could mean either:
- She's a melee/ gun-fighter. The latter would be interesting since we don't have one of those in the base roster (save Haru, but she's also the Psy character of the group so chances are you'll specialise her in one or the other field).
- She's P4G!Naoto levels of OP and the low SP count is to mitigate that.
- She's badly optimised OR that this is simply an early build of the game :P
The next batch on information will come on May 9th. However, there's also a talk show tomorrow with Joker's VA that was supposed to give P5R info, which makes me think tomorrow will just have a recap of today's stuff (along with info of an upgrade deal for existing owners, I hope).
Persona 5 Royal releases on Halloween in Japan and
2020 in the West (the English trailer also confirms the Western name drops the "The" in the Japanese title as many suspected, following P4G's example). 'til then, enjoy! I hope you found this useful!
Edit 4: Theories (marked with "(*X)" above):
- It's possible that the meeting between Kasumi, Ren and Akechi is where we hear the dialogue from last month's trailer ("What do you think of the Phantom Thieves?") After all, them meeting at all means she isn't restricted to only meeting him at the TV station, and this gives her more time to form an opinion on how they work - at least until finding her way into the metaverse and seeing what they do and why.
- u/TheReaperCreeper had a much better suggestion than me: what if Akechi is the one who turns himself in for Ren's sake? As another user of the Metaverse he can also answer questions about it to get Shido sentenced, while also paying for his own crimes. Better still, he could claim to be the leader of the Thieves to keep the law off everyone else's backs, thus getting to redeem himself while also being punished for the things he did. Thanks, Reaper!
- I was going to say Kasumi may only be important because she was in the right place at the right time, but this certainly hints at a more supernatural cause if true.
- u/hypercombofinish suggested Kasumi's Persona could be Dorothée, and since her outfit shares so many similarities to Joker's I think this is highly likely. For those who don't know, Dorothée is the lead character of the novel The Secret Tomb, the only Arsène Lupin book in which Arsène himself doesn't appear. Instead the plot is about Dorothée solving one of his "four fabulous secrets". This could be highly fitting for someone initially disagrees with the Thieves before becoming one herself and would also tie her into Joker's "mythology" the same way Marie and her backstory tied into Izanagi's (and thus Yu) - assuming Kasumi is the Aeon Arcana and not a Fool or Jester or something completely different, of course.
- The trailer as a whole has a small narrative running about Kasumi trying to dissuade the Thieves from their work, while Morgana tells her they won't be swayed by the danger or not getting results. This provides some early insight into her character, but maybe she eventually goes off the deep end and tries to control everything as a way of keeping everyone safe? Morgana telling her that "granting everyone's dreams is bad" and her saying she "took everyone's dreams" is also quite interesting. Maybe Wakaba and human!Morgana are just illusions? I plan on making a full post about the translated trailer tomorrow, but this is just something to sleep on until then.
---
(Just search for "Edit X" to see what each change entailed. Check the time stamp to see if I added anything you missed or want to correct!)
Edit 1: Just added a few tweaks based on stuff I've seen elsewhere on the sub and stuff I forgot to add the first time.
P.S. ...am I the only one who thinks Kasumi looks better in her school uniform?
Anyone? Maybe because I like clothed people and the pose shows her off better? Edit 2: Amended the descriptions of Kasumi's weapons.
Edit 3: Added a detail I overlooked the first time and
clarifications from Persona Central's article. (Edit made at 16:53 UTC.)
Edit 4: Added translations for the new boy and a theory section, 17:31 UTC.
Edit 5: Added more translations, a correction about Joker's grappling hook and a new theory! 21:47 UTC.
Edit 5.5: Added a quick note I forgot to under the "mysterious boy's" section. 21:54 UTC.
Edit 6: Another edit, another translation! 22:22 UTC.
Edit 7: Added information from
the translated trailer and
u/quitethewaysaway's observation. 22:50 UTC.
Edit 7.5: Edited theory 5, 22:53 UTC.
25th April Edit 8: I wrote another post
about the translated trailer and added some new speculation there including possible Gnostic influences! Also I added a possible explanation for the alarms ringing in the Velvet Room. 9:40 (am) UTC.
Edit 9:
This has nothing to do with Persona 5 Royal, but I wrote a post for P5S too! It's nowhere near as detailed as this one (since we have nowhere near as much info), but I hope you find it worth reading nonetheless! 14:39 UTC.
Edit 10: Added a shower thought inspired by Kasumi's cosplayer. 16:19 UTC.
Edit 11: Added a detail about Futaba's AOA that I noticed on rewatching the trailer. 18:14 UTC.
Edit 12: Finally managed to snag a picture of the above, and also added a scene from the trailer I didn't think worth mentioning before but have since changed my mind on. 21:13 UTC.
27th April Edit 13: Added a new observations from the trailer. 08:35 UTC (am).
Edit 14: Added more info about a screenshot. 13:05 UTC.
Edit 15: Added some info from Twitter. I wish I knew of MysticDistance's work sooner! 13:54 UTC.
Edit 16: Added some observations from the trailer. 20:15 UTC.
Edit 17:
Added a screenshot of the mystery figure on the TV screen. 20:47 UTC.
28th April Edit 18: Added more details from Twitter, some speculation and a feature about the cutscenes I keep forgetting to add! 10:09 UTC.
Edit 19: Added speculation about when Kasumi joins the Thieves as well as a theory on Okumura's Palace. 14:05 UTC.
Edit 20: Added some speculation and further observations. 16:52 UTC.
UPDATES: This post is now too long to add to, so further updates will be added in the comments (along with text from here to show where the new details fit in.
Edit 21: Can be found here. 22:17 UTC. (Edit 21.5: Added a link to the magazine article and boldened the links to the trailer and site. 22:25 UTC).
29th April Edit 22: Can be found here and contains some further speculation! 19:13 UTC.
Edit 23: Can be found here and details Kasumi's animations and possible symbolism of her stats/ potential playstyle. 19:36 UTC.
Edit 24: More speculation! 20:03 UTC.
Edit 25! 21:32 UTC.
30th April Edit 26! 20:12 UTC.
(Edit 26.5: Added the above date and italicised it and the 29th for better clarity. 21:13 UTC.)
Edit 27: Added something I've been forgetting to add ever since adding the speculation of Goro (and Kasumi) joining Joker as "inmates," followed by some shower thoughts! 21:48 UTC.
Edit 28! A big one if I say so myself, about Kasumi's theorised code name, "Swan". Now I really hope we were right! 22:06 UTC.
4th May Edit 29,
30 and
31: I was able to cover a lot over the past few days, including an analysis of Kasumi's character and name so far
and translations for everything on the trailer and website! 16:49 UTC.
Edit 32: A new thought and an old thought. 23:00 UTC.
5th May Edit 33: A thought regarding the narrative impact of the similarities between Kasumi and Joker's outfits. 10:01 UTC.
Edit 34:
Wrote an analysis of the main song, Colors Flying High, and added some suggestions for the origins and implications of Kasumi's powers! 15:14 UTC.
6th May Edit 35: More theories based on suggestions from the comments! 14:16 UTC.
Edit 36: New theories from the comments and something I keep forgetting to mention. 14:43 UTC.
Edit 37+ listed here! submitted by Twin River had none of that, no one ensuring people were following rules, as no one near me wore a mask, or even attempted social distancing, which was very different from my experience in CT. If you must gamble, go to CT, it felt much safer, and Mohegan especially had all gaming areas open so it was easy to find a slot away from other guests and spread out. Twin River Casino in Lincoln, Rhode Island, is a full casino with live table games, video slot machines, virtual table games, live entertainment and dining. Part of that two-week pause is the closure of entertainment venues, including Twin River and Tiverton Casino Hotel. For that reason, we will close at 10 pm on Sunday, November 29th, with the expectation that circumstances will allow us to reopen on Monday, December 14th at 6am. We sincerely regret any inconvenience to you, our valued guest. Twin River Casino Overview. Twin River Casino was first mentioned on PissedConsumer on Jan 03, 2008 and since then this brand received 135 reviews.. Twin River Casino ranks 43 of 211 in Gambling and Lotto category. The overall rating of the company is 1.8 and consumers are mostly dissatisfied.. Recent recommendations regarding this business are as follows: "I’m not recommend no one to go to Twin River Worldwide Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: TRWH) (the "Company" or "Twin River") today announced the reopening of its Dover Downs Hotel and Casino in Dover, DE ("Dover Downs") effective June 1st. A spokesperson for Twin River said both locations will extend their hours of operation and will offer table games on a socially-distanced basis. The locations will now be open from 10 a.m. to 3 a Twin River Casino Hotel, Lincoln: "Is there bar and yes what time is open until on..." | Check out answers, plus see 519 reviews, articles, and 59 photos of Twin River Casino Hotel, ranked No.15 on Tripadvisor among 19 attractions in Lincoln. Twin River said it will open its casinos in Lincoln and Tiverton to the general public on Tuesday. The two casinos will be open from 10 a. m. to 3 a. m. seven days a week. Lincoln is limited to For now, the casino will close at 10:00 p.m. Sunday through Thursday and at 10:30 p.m. on Friday and Saturday.