China Stocks: "Cash is king during Chinese New Year, with gift-giving in the form of ‘red packets’ a major driver. Given that companies and stock markets are closed over the festivals, swathes of profit-taking take place to take vast sums of cash out of the system – causing fluctuations in stocks." $TANH – found resistance at $2.01, but the bullish trend of the RSI and MACD could have break resistance to my PT $2.72 $CAAS - Double bottom measured move to $8.36. $WEI - being backed by several social media influencers with PTs ranging $3-5+ Sympathy/Related: #QTT # CTK #WIMI #TIGR #AIHS #CMCM #UXIN #LAIX #TAL #DQ #LU #SEED #SXTC #BEST #TC #GSX #CCNC #PETZ #TKAT #PLAG #NCTY #MOXC #TANH #EVK #JRJC #AIH #HGSH #CCM #PLIN #BABA #TAOP #TEDU #LXEH #KXIN #OCG #YGMZ #ATIF #JFIN #CLEU #BHAT BTC/BLOCKCHAIN: Bitcoin hit 40K this weekend and Doge $0.07 $MARA $RIOT $BRQS – with bitcoin hitting 40K these are something to keep watch on Monday Sympathy/Related: #SOS #RIOT #MOGO #NXTD #IDEX #MGI #IZEA #EQOS #IPDN #EBON #DPW #MARA #PHUN MARIJUANA: $SNDL - Pullback to $0.85ish, buy the pullback for an inverse head and shoulders with a price target of $2.61 $HUGE - Daily trend about to turn bullish with massive volume spike. $CRBP – Huge gap to filled back up on the daily chart. PT $3.33 $KERN – Swing alert (weeks) growing nicely on the daily chart, but I wait for a pullback before making an entry. Long term PT $18.58 Sympathy/Related: #ACB, #TLRY #OGI #CGC #HEXO #CRON #APHA $ICG Energy Sector: $OPTT - Weekly trend about to change from bearish to bullish with significant volume increases week by week. PT: $8 short term, $18-20 longer term. $SPI - weekly chart bullish harami. Bullish pennant price action pattern. EMA200 $19.55 MACD crossed bullish. Daily chart hammebull pin bar impulse pullback Sympathy/Related:: #WWR #CBAT #PECK #PLUG #CLSK #FCEL #SUNW #AMTX #PEIX #TRCH $#ENG #SPI #WATT #ALAC #TRCH #OPTT #OEG BLM STOCKS: BLACK HISTORY MONTH Sympathy/Related #LMFA #IMTE #SALM #UONEK #CARV #BYFC $UNONE Biotechs: $OCGN – Swing alert (Weeks) huge volume coming in after the split. Base on my daily fibo chart $10.73. Sympathy/Related:: #ANVS #VXRT #AEZS #MBRX #SLS #CRMD #PRTA #VTVT #ALVR #PLRX #ARTL #GMDA #GRCL #TLSA #ATOS #IMNM #NKTX #AZRX #OCGN #SAVA #ADMS #SBBP #CNSP #AKER #SAVA #TTOO #AGEN TECHNICALS: $CNSL $RVPH – Both have double bottom with a hammer candle on Friday. $VISL – Huge volume on Friday. Continuation play PT $5 $BDR - this low float stock is weekly play. Typically spikes over $2 at least once a week and usually on Monday or Tuesday. 10-50%. $NAKD - Trend change and golden cross on the daily. Look for pullback to $.80 or so, then a push back to $2+ $CTRM - Over 25 million shares shorted on 1/15 that need to cover by tomorrow. Could be more powerful than the GME squeeze. Massive volume spike the past few weeks. First target $1, next target $2.69. $LMNL looks like it's time has come to start really retracing back to the teens. Bullish harami on weekly. 3 white soldier on the daily. Bull flag broke down for a DBR set up. 4hr set up for PM gapper. PT $5.96 then $6.99 for a break above $6.07 ~10-30%+ gainer Fib retracement levels 23.6% $11.19 / 38.2% $15.06 / 50.0% $18.19 / 61.8% $21.33 $ADMP - weekly chart showing extreme bullish confluence. bullish hammebull pin bar EMA6 bounce pattern/backtest old resistance as new support to maintain $1+ compliance. EMA200 $2.144 Daily chart fish hook pattern gap to 1.40 and 1.64 great chart set up for possible rockets. Backburners: ^WPRT ^PPBT ^MBII ^LAIX ^CLNE ^ELVT ^VRTV ^NAVB ^AAME ^VOR ^IMCR ^WHLR ^BOLT ^HTBX ^CLOV ^ABUS ^MRNA ^HGEN
$CATV - New CEO, Patents, Acquisitions, Multiple Revenue-Generating Businesses, Fully Integrated CBD Chain 4Cable TV International, Inc. (OTC: CATV) is determined to become a fully integrated Global CBD/Hemp business from seed to sale. Farming is where it all starts, and distribution is where it all goes. Today 4Cable TV, International, Inc. moves one of its chess pieces by announcing it is acquiring CIGN, LLC. As a result of the acquisition, revenues for 2021 are expected to be in the millions of dollars. $CATV will be OTC PINK Soon https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/CATV/news/story?e&id=1797202 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TL6i6MHPtnMQCKcAZ9BgYTMxQNI5LWRF/view Company Website: http://www.4cabletvint.com/#home Company Email [email protected] NEW CEO Since Dec 18th 2020 Michael Feldenkrais https://youtu.be/ArFs-b0ww_Y https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelfeldenkraislawyer His largest accomplishment came when he organized several mergers and acquisitions with a Canadian publicly traded company Amaya Gaming that resulted in the increase of its market cap from 50 million dollars to 4.9 billion dollars in less than 2 years. Amaya Gaming In Deal To Buy PokerStars For $4.9 Billion One of the most high-stakes, controversial and intriguing business stories in the history of the modern gambling industry is heading toward its conclusion. PokerStars, the world’s biggest online poker company, has agreed to sell itself for $4.9 billion to Amaya Gaming, a small publicly-traded Canadian supplier of gambling equipment. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2014/06/12/amaya-gaming-in-deal-to-buy-pokerstars-for-4-9-billion/?sh=3286a4104469 Experience: Over 20 Years of Professional Experience: Michael, is a well recognized attorney that has appeared on all major Spanish and English television networks. Michael manages a successful media, lead generation,gaming and marketing portfolio. CANNABIS In this video below Michael Feldenkrais is talking about how excited he is to start growing the plants and the business. https://thefloridachannel.org/videos/capitol-update-extended-hemp-applications-open/ In the Cannabis space, Mr. Feldenkrais has been very active for the last 6 years from intellectual property, cultivation, manufacturing, distribution, and retail. (Seed to Sale). Starting his Cannabis career, he focused on acquiring intellectual property in Israel to deploying such in the United States, Central and South America, and the Caribbean. In recent years he built a franchise company to open 22 Medical Clinics recommending the use of Cannabis andsold a total of 50 franchised locations in less than one year. He then concentrated his efforts in cultivating Cannabis in Florida out of a state-of-the-art Cravo greenhouse in Homestead for commercial and research purposes under the auspices of the University of Florida. Entrepreneur: Early in his career, he built two of the largest Prepaid Cellular Phone Card distribution companies in Colombia and Venezuela, wherein he deployed a distribution model using informal workers and converting them into main-stream employees giving jobs to over 14,500 people. Media and Corporate Related Experience: In 2008 he developed a success based marketing system. He has proven expertise in the operations, management and procedure implementation of media campaigns, lead generation software, and lead analytics. He expanded the companies business into the gaming category closing transactions in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The company has relationships with television production companies, casino companies, motion pictures companies and more. Using Success Based Marketing, he guided the company and all its aspects from creating the proprietary lead software, harnessing lead analytic's for re-marketing, to purchasing media for lead creation, and to the creative production of the media campaigns that would generate the most response for the money spent. Lawyer Experience: Respected and trusted television spokesperson. All the major television stations have contacted Michael to speak on legal issues. He has appeared regularly in television and radio, both nationally and internationally as both a consultant and a host. Has produced several television shows and has appeared regularly on TV stations like Univision, NBC, and Telemundo. https://www.floridabar.org/directories/find-mbprofile/?num=991708 Specialties: Business Development and Management / Media Production and Distribution /Mergers and Acquisitions/ Corporate, International, and Immigration Law Since he has been CEO of $CATV
Has acquired 3 new revenue producing companies in 3 weeks. Health Care and Wellness Clinics of America, LLC ("HCWCOA"), and Corporation Clinic, LLC ("Corporation Clinic") Chai MD, Hip n Chai and Get Medicated.
LOI for CIGN a 4th revenue producing company (He is already CEO of CIGN) They're finalizing the acquisition of CIGN Farms in FL. They grow and distribute hemp and hemp seeds for CBD products, etc.
Jan 8th PR saying Filings Imminent and are excited to announce thatit is estimating the filing of its financial statement and disclosuresin the coming weeks..
Covid-19 Update for January 29: 543 new cases, 765 recoveries, 14 deaths + Outline of Relaunch Plan + Announced Relaxation for In-Person Dining Restrictions/Indoor Fitness
Data is taken from the Covid-19 portal and today's media availability with Premier Jason Kenney, Minister of Health Tyler Shandro, and Dr Deena Hinshaw. Dr Hinshaw's next availability it will be Monday. There are currently enhanced measures in effect for the province of Alberta. This link provides a quick summary of which ones are in effect for different regions of Alberta. Alberta is currently on "Early Steps", with the goal of reaching Step 1 on February 8th. Top line numbers:
For values where "Current" and "Total" are the same, I have left results under Total
Value
Current
Change
Total
Total cases
—
+543
123,364
Active cases
7,805
-236
—
Cases with "Unknown source"
1,129 (34.8%) in last 7 days
-49 (-0.3%)
—
Tests
—
+11,608 (~4.68% positive)
3,154,153
People tested
—
+3,029
1,749,944 (~400,353/million)
Hospitalizations
594
+3/-7 based on yesterday's post/portal data
5,326 (+33)
ICU
110
-2/-3 based on yesterday's post/portal data
858 (+7)
Deaths
—
+14
1,620
Recoveries
—
+765
113,939
Age Range of Deaths
Age Bracket
New Deaths
Total Deaths
20-29
0
7
30-39
1
8
40-49
0
18
50-59
0
51
60-69
1
164
70-79
3
321
80+
9
1,050
Unknown
0
1
Vaccinations
Value
Change
Total
Vaccinations
+1,803
104,327 (~23,868/million)
Albertans with 2 vaccinations
+1,680
14,352 (~3,283/million)
Reported UK and South Africa Variants
The value is updated by Alberta Health weekly
Last update: January 29
Variant
Change since last update (January 25)
Cases
United Kingdom (B.1.1.7)
+11
31
South Africa (B.1.351)
+1
6
Spatial distribution of people tested, cases, and deaths:
All other values are compared with respect to yesterday
Zone
Active Cases
People Tested
Total
New Cases
Total
New Deaths
Total
Calgary
3,138 (-64)
+1,203
708,112
+223
47,320
+1
505
Central
692 (-18)
+290
155,673
+67
8,777
+3
87
Edmonton
2,662 (-102)
+834
581,259
+155
51,266
+9
848
North
957 (-53)
+350
164,314
+58
10,049
+1
109
South
340 (+4)
+179
108,042
+39
5,822
+0
71
Unknown
16 (-3)
+173
32,544
+1
130
+0
0
Effective Reproductive Number (R, or Rt)
The value is updated by Alberta Health on Mondays
Last update: January 25
What % the confidence interval represents isn't stated
Zone
R Value (Confidence interval)
Province-wide
0.81 (0.79-0.84)
Edmonton
0.81 (0.77-0.85)
Calgary
0.83 (0.79-0.87)
Rest of Province
0.77 (0.73-0.82)
Spatial distribution of cases for select cities and regions (cities proper for Calgary and Edmonton):
City/Municipality
Total
Active
Recovered
Deaths
Edmonton
41,833 (+122)
2,134 (-87)
38,987 (+204)
712 (+5)
Calgary
39,762 (+185)
2,592 (-41)
36,718 (+225)
452 (+1)
Red Deer
1,844 (+17)
174 (+2)
1,651 (+14)
19 (+1)
Lethbridge
1,704 (+29)
133 (+15)
1,559 (+14)
12 (+0)
Fort McMurray
1,681 (+2)
92 (-10)
1,586 (+12)
3 (+0)
Brooks
1,361 (+0)
3 (-1)
1,344 (+1)
14 (+0)
Grande Prairie
1,150 (+7)
147 (-5)
984 (+12)
19 (+0)
High River + county
769 (+0)
24 (-3)
738 (+3)
7 (+0)
Mackenzie county
553 (+7)
40 (+4)
498 (+3)
15 (+0)
Medicine Hat
527 (+2)
21 (+0)
493 (+2)
13 (+0)
Cardston county
466 (+4)
83 (-7)
377 (+11)
6 (+0)
I.D. No 9 (Banff)
423 (+11)
29 (+11)
394 (+0)
0
Wheatland county
232 (+2)
14 (+1)
218 (+1)
0
Warner county
158 (+0)
6 (+0)
150 (+0)
2 (+0)
Wood Buffalo municipality
133 (+2)
9 (+2)
124 (+0)
0
Rest of Alberta
30,768 (+153)
2,304 (-117)
28,118 (+263)
346 (+7)
Other municipalities with 10+ active cases is given at this link Schools with outbreaks are listed online. Quick numbers (changes since yesterday):
114 school are on alert (2-4 active cases) (+4)
15 schools are on outbreak with 5-9 active cases (+2)
4 school is on outbreak with over 10 active cases (+0)
Spatial distribution of hospital usage (change as of yesterday's post):
Hospitalization zone are where the patient is receiving care, not zone of residence
Zone
Hospitalized
ICU
Calgary
199 (+8)
48 (+2)
Edmonton
246 (-9)
38 (-4)
Central
45 (-1)
7 (+0)
South
34 (+3)
8 (-1)
North
70 (+2)
9 (+1)
Statements by Premier Kenney Opening Remarks
Alberta must continue to proceed cautiously
System is managing as a province, but some hospital facilities is still significant
Peak reached in early January (>90% Covid capable bed occupancy)
Problem in every region of the province as many rural regions are cared for in Calgary/Edmonton
All healthcare workers have limits and we must protect capacity
Notes (i) Peter Lougheed and Butterdome field units, (ii) AHS having no budget limits at the moment, and (iii) limited staff available
Restrictions
Recognizes that stress that comes with economic and employment instability
Why a "lockdown" has never been imposed with curfews, closed schools, and business closure
Broad public support and compliance is important
To strike this balance, wants to show a path forward...that bending curve lets public health measures lift
Must be carefully, slowly, and data driven
Restriction Metrics
Restrictions will be lifted in a stepped approach based on hospitalizations (ICU and general acute) values. It is a lagging indicator of healthcare capacity
When a benchmark is reached, discussion will be considered for further advancement of relaxation. Hospitalizations will be primary factor, but growth of cases will also be considered
Hospitalizations will be reviewed 3 weeks later. If hospitalizations have continued to fall, further progression will be considered
Case numbers represent recent trends and will be used to determine if relaxations need to be paused or if additional restrictions are needed
If cases surge to exponential growth and if a variant begins to increase spread, restrictions will be imposed again
Details of Relaxation Plan
Some restrictions will apply in all steps and at least 3 weeks are place in between each step
Early Steps: Schools open, outdoor gatherings up to 10 people, personal and wellness by appointment only, funerals up to 20 people
Step 1 - Begins February 8th: Some easing in school function (indoooutdoor sports, performance activities), some indoor fitness, some dine-in options for restaurants/cafes/pubs bound by clear limitations (e.g. - distancing requirements, group size, masking, etc).
Step 2 - Requires: Average hospitalization <450: Some easing for retail, banquet halls, community halls, hotels, conference centres. Some further easing on children sports/performance, indoor fitness
Step 3 - Requires: Average hospitalization <300: Consider places of worship and limited reopening of museums, libraries, casinos, and indoor seated events. Consider indoor indoor social gatherings with limitations. All that are considered will have restrictions still
Step 4 - Requires: Average hospitalization <150: Restrictions will exist, but will be closer to last summer. Wide range of indoor and indoor activities would be considered. Wedding/funeral receptions, trade shows, are on the table at this point
Requires buy in from Albertans
As measures are eased, community spread can occur
Moving from 1 stage to another will not be automatic - it will be open for discussion
Leading indicators will be used to warn of "red flags" for pausing relaxation
Closing Remarks
Minister of Jobs Doug Schweitzer will make announcements for support in coming days
Hopes that this will be a boost to Albertans and Albertan businesses
We are not at the end and it will be a while until we see a real effect from vaccines. Variants add to the challenge
This is not "back to normal" and if we think so, we'll start rolling back steps of the above plan again
Q&A
There are people who willingly ignore restrictions. What should be done here?: Enforcement is last resort. Regrettable to see that people are doing this and it is disrespectful to healthcare staff; they are saying they are more important than healthcare and can hurt the entire province. Understands the frustration, but things won't improve if people continue to break rules. Calls politicians who support ignoring restrictions "irresponsible" and thinks stronger enforcement is required
(Upon prompting, Dr Hinshaw added that most Albertans are following restrictions and cannot let the minority dictate the actions of the majority - more compliance results in higher potential for restrictions down the road)
How much decision making is politics in UCP strongholds?: Decisions in Covid cabinet are data driven. One factor is population compliance; polling say it's about 20% of Albertans think restrictions are too stringent, 40% say it's about right, 40% not strong enough (believes there is no strong consensus). Believes vast majority of Albertans are compliant
Who will get delayed with limited vaccine doses?: Defers to Minister Shandro. Notes he is worried about EU restricting exports of vaccine and asks federal government put pressure on Pfizer
(Minister Shandro: Still reviewing. Will follow recommendations of health officials and defers to Dr Hinshaw)
(Dr Hinshaw: Risk of severe outcomes driven. Still need to review)
Statements by Dr Hinshaw Cases
~12% of schools have active cases (607 cases combined)
Active cases in 291 schools
12 cases of variants identified: 31 UK total, 6 from South Africa
All but 3 linked to travel and from same household (1 was the community spread case)
No evidence of further community spread
Relaxations
Knows many Albertans are keen to return to activities they have missed
Most important step will be following restrictions in spirit
If in-person interactions can be replaced, cases will further reduce and prevent spread of variants
Q&A
What data is being used for deciding Step 1?: Uses BC as an example for successful limited service in these activities and did study of where spread can occur. Group fitness events are high spread (especially high intensity). Opening for fitness will be to bar high intensity fitness. Opening only low risk parts (e.g. - only a single household at a table). More information next week.
(Premier Kenney added that global data was used)
How much did Covid variant affect this plan?: Key part of plan is followed by 3 weeks of observation. A part of the 3 week timeline is to monitor for rising cases. This will allow for monitoring
How confident are you in containing variant?: Concerning in case identification. Significant testing of incoming travellers has allowed for early containment of most cases
(Premier Kenney added: Concerned for widespread risk of variant. Also considers some positives in vaccines being rolled out and increased contact tracing)
Statements by Minster Shandro
Proud of progress of vaccination
Notes Moderna's cut; it feels like Alberta isn't a priority
Alberta Health was informed that it will reduce from 24,600 to 18,800 doses (5,800 fewer. ~23.5%)
Informed all February Moderna deliveries being accessed, so unknown how much Alberta will receive in that time
Accessing impact on first and second doses
Knows the frustration from Albertans and thinks new from federal governments continues getting worse
Wants a national strategy for vaccine supply
Q&A
Does reopening 1 week from now contradict previous comments from Dr Hinshaw/Minister Shandro?: 2 important messages about "stepping up and stepping down". Trying to show Albertans how it could happen and separate from message of potential for further restrictions if cases spread further
(Upon request from Minister Shandro, Premier Kenney added: The approach is very gradual and are already available in neighbouring provinces of BC and Saskatchewan. Will monitor closely as to best balance multiple pressure on the province. Notes mental health has worsened because of economic stresses for business owners)
(Dr Hinshaw was asked to add by Premier Kenney: Notes that significant restrictions will exist in the sectors that reopen. But to get more than that will take more work from Albertans to reduce cases and hospitalization)
Additional information will be logged below:
The final question was for Premier Kenney in French. While I cannot translate, the reporter stated it was about the compliance of Albertans on vaccines.
Here's the update, typed as he was talking, apologies if I missed anything. NO FURTHER SHUTDOWNS ANNOUNCED! Pause is EXTENDED through 1/15/2021.
Situation: We are at a critical point and here is why.
Encouraging news on vaccine: FDA granted emergency use. Western States panel approved.
First vaccine shipment on Monday, frontline healthcare workers to get immediate vaccination.
Did a test run for vaccine delivery process, will keep Nevadans posted.
Dr. Fauci predicted a surge on top of a surge, that's where Nevada is headed.
We are just now beginning to see the effects of the holidays. Small decline in cases and testing over the holiday, big surges now.
Seeing big increases in hospitalizations, 1700 Nevadans since Friday.
In Southern Nevada we have NOT peaked yet.
Protecting healthcare infrastructure is the main priority. Setting up hospitals in parking garages just in case.
No doubt our hospitals are seeing an increase in strain, as well as actual healthcare workers.
COVID deaths on the rise. 2539 Nevadans dead.
Statewide pause summary, talked about mitigation, capacity limits, etc.
As of November 30th, 74% Nevadans wore masks when leaving home. If we were at 95% compliance we would save more lives by Spring.
Noted that Nevadans are under stress, worried about health, jobs, school. Wants everyone to do what we can to reduce strain on hospitals.
EXTENDING CURRENT NEVADA PAUSE THROUGH JANUARY 15TH, NO ANNOUNCED SHUTDOWNS.
All current restrictions are still in place.
Sisolak says that if his health officials see cases rise more, he will shut more things down.
Sign an eviction moratorium in place tomorrow to protect Nevadans, through March 31st.
Better to leave Nevadans in homes versus in shelters and homelessness.
When people are evicted it becomes impossible to stay home, they will be forced outside and potentially spread COVID-19.
Talked about how tenants are still obligated to pay rent. Talked about rental assistance programs. Supported with federal assistance dollars, funds are low though.
Realizes this will be hard on landlords, asking landlords to continue to sacrifice and do more to help tenants. Promises to look into assistance for landlords.
Vaccine on the horizon, please continue to be strong. Fight the virus, not each other.
Says not a day goes by that he doesn't think about lives and our economic structure.
Acknowledges that we have record cases, but realizes that families are suffering, with little financing assistance.
Claims no winning options, picked whatever option hurts Nevadans the least.
Federal government has yet to grasp the complexity of our situation. Federal government says that states are not doing enough. Sisolak admits mitigation policies, our complete shutdown, would be best. However without funding and paying Nevadans to stay home, is not realistic. Says shutdowns don't work without people getting paid.
State is trying desperately to balance health and economy.
Families are teetering on the brink. We have lost 250,000 jobs, NV had highest unemployment rate in the country.
142,000 Nevadans have exhausted their UI benefits, won't be able to file again until March 2021, says NV needs more federal help.
State of Nevada had a savings account, a rainy day fund, which was their safety net. As of today, there is no more money. No more rainy day fund. CARES Act funding ends at the end of the year.
According to our state economist, another shutdown will put us in a just as bad or worse state than the Great Depression.
Says that if he could write a check to pay everyone, he would, but can't.
Gaming industry. Under the same or tougher restrictions as everyone else. Gaming Control Board is the most regulated business in the state.
When he thinks of the gaming industry, he loses sleep because under a state at home order, NV lost 250,000 jobs. Cooks, dealers, valet, entertainers, etc.
Gaming matters in this state. If we shut down again, state loses $52 million in tax revenue a month. That same revenue supports Nevadans, health, benefits, the safety we need. That's why he has kept the casinos open.
(Side note: so basically, casinos need to be open so that the state can fund UI and benefits for the State)
This week it was reported that NV has seen a 50% increase in opioid and drug death. Does not believe its a coincidence.
People won't be healthy if they lose their job, benefits, housing, etc.
Relied on the science and health officials to make decisions.
COVID-19 is the first and last thing he thinks about every day.
Praises healthcare workers for their sacrifices.
Says his blood boils when the federal government says that States do not do enough.
Says that everyone is stepping up, task force has gotten millions of masks and PPE. Had to do it themselves versus rely on the federal government.
Says federal government promised PPE, but help never came.
Invites McConnell to look at the hospital wards, foreclosed homes, to look at all affected Nevadans when he said citizens did not need the extra help.
Compromise is hard, but possible if both sides toss politics aside.
We must figure things out on our own, if not, more shutdowns will be forced.
Vaccine is on the way. Stay strong. Says he has made the best decision for our state all things considered.
Called upon all Nevadans to come together, again, to do this.
If we cannot control cases, he will impost further restrictions.
We are all frontline people, tired, worn out, ready to give up. We have a choice to think of things as every man for themselves, or to support each other and have each others backs.
Look after each other. Love our neighbors.
We face all challenges together. Nevada will make it through this. The end result will be based on how much we care for each other.
A Nevadan is testing positive every 40 seconds. 1 hour and 15 minutes a Nevadan dies.
Please, protect yourselves and one another by wearing a mask, washing hands, and socially distance.
$CATV - New CEO, Patents, Acquisitions, Multiple Revenue-Generating Businesses, Fully Integrated CBD Chain 4Cable TV International, Inc. (OTC: CATV) is determined to become a fully integrated Global CBD/Hemp business from seed to sale. Farming is where it all starts, and distribution is where it all goes. Today 4Cable TV, International, Inc. moves one of its chess pieces by announcing it is acquiring CIGN, LLC. As a result of the acquisition, revenues for 2021 are expected to be in the millions of dollars. $CATV will be OTC PINK Soon https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/CATV/news/story?e&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;id=1797202 Company Website: http://www.hcwcoa.com NEW CEO Since Dec 18th 2020 Michael Feldenkrais https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelfeldenkraislawyer Amaya Gaming In Deal To Buy PokerStars For $4.9 Billion His largest accomplishment came when he organized several mergers and acquisitions with a Canadian publicly traded company Amaya Gaming that resulted in the increase of its market cap from 50 million dollars to 4.9 billion dollars in less than 2 years. One of the most high-stakes, controversial and intriguing business stories in the history of the modern gambling industry is heading toward its conclusion. PokerStars, the world’s biggest online poker company, has agreed to sell itself for $4.9 billion to Amaya Gaming, a small publicly-traded Canadian supplier of gambling equipment. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2014/06/12/amaya-gaming-in-deal-to-buy-pokerstars-for-4-9-billion/?sh=3286a4104469 Experience: Over 20 Years of Professional Experience: Michael, is a well recognized attorney that has appeared on all major Spanish and English television networks. Michael manages a successful media, lead generation,gaming and marketing portfolio. CANNABIS In this video below Michael Feldenkrais is talking about how excited he is to start growing the plants and the business. https://thefloridachannel.org/videos/capitol-update-extended-hemp-applications-open/ In the Cannabis space, Mr. Feldenkrais has been very active for the last 6 years from intellectual property, cultivation, manufacturing, distribution, and retail. (Seed to Sale). Starting his Cannabis career, he focused on acquiring intellectual property in Israel to deploying such in the United States, Central and South America, and the Caribbean. In recent years he built a franchise company to open 22 Medical Clinics recommending the use of Cannabis andsold a total of 50 franchised locations in less than one year. He then concentrated his efforts in cultivating Cannabis in Florida out of a state-of-the-art Cravo greenhouse in Homestead for commercial and research purposes under the auspices of the University of Florida. Entrepreneur: Early in his career, he built two of the largest Prepaid Cellular Phone Card distribution companies in Colombia and Venezuela, wherein he deployed a distribution model using informal workers and converting them into main-stream employees giving jobs to over 14,500 people. Media and Corporate Related Experience: In 2008 he developed a success based marketing system. He has proven expertise in the operations, management and procedure implementation of media campaigns, lead generation software, and lead analytics. He expanded the companies business into the gaming category closing transactions in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The company has relationships with television production companies, casino companies, motion pictures companies and more. Using Success Based Marketing, he guided the company and all its aspects from creating the proprietary lead software, harnessing lead analytic's for re-marketing, to purchasing media for lead creation, and to the creative production of the media campaigns that would generate the most response for the money spent. Lawyer Experience: Respected and trusted television spokesperson. All the major television stations have contacted Michael to speak on legal issues. He has appeared regularly in television and radio, both nationally and internationally as both a consultant and a host. Has produced several television shows and has appeared regularly on TV stations like Univision, NBC, and Telemundo. https://www.floridabar.org/directories/find-mbprofile/?num=991708 Specialties: Business Development and Management / Media Production and Distribution /Mergers and Acquisitions/ Corporate, International, and Immigration Law Since he has been CEO of $CATV
Has acquired 3 new revenue producing companies in 3 weeks. Health Care and Wellness Clinics of America, LLC ("HCWCOA"), and Corporation Clinic, LLC ("Corporation Clinic") Chai MD, Hip n Chai &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp; Get Medicated.
LOI for CIGN a 4th revenue producing company (He is already CEO of CIGN) They're finalizing the acquisition of CIGN Farms in FL. They grow and distribute hemp and hemp seeds for CBD products, etc.
Jan 8th PR saying Filings Imminent and are excited to announce thatit is estimating the filing of its financial statement and disclosuresin the coming weeks..
China Stocks: "Cash is king during Chinese New Year, with gift-giving in the form of ‘red packets’ a major driver. Given that companies and stock markets are closed over the festivals, swathes of profit-taking take place to take vast sums of cash out of the system – causing fluctuations in stocks." $TANH – found resistance at $2.01, but the bullish trend of the RSI and MACD could have break resistance to my PT $2.72 $CAAS - Double bottom measured move to $8.36. $WEI - being backed by several social media influencers with PTs ranging $3-5+ Sympathy/Related: #QTT # CTK #WIMI #TIGR #AIHS #CMCM #UXIN #LAIX #TAL #DQ #LU #SEED #SXTC #BEST #TC #GSX #CCNC #PETZ #TKAT #PLAG #NCTY #MOXC #TANH #EVK #JRJC #AIH #HGSH #CCM #PLIN #BABA #TAOP #TEDU #LXEH #KXIN #OCG #YGMZ #ATIF #JFIN #CLEU #BHAT BTC/BLOCKCHAIN: Bitcoin hit 40K this weekend and Doge $0.07 $MARA $RIOT $BRQS – with bitcoin hitting 40K these are something to keep watch on Monday Sympathy/Related: #SOS #RIOT #MOGO #NXTD #IDEX #MGI #IZEA #EQOS #IPDN #EBON #DPW #MARA #PHUN MARIJUANA: $SNDL - Pullback to $0.85ish, buy the pullback for an inverse head and shoulders with a price target of $2.61 $HUGE - Daily trend about to turn bullish with massive volume spike. $CRBP – Huge gap to filled back up on the daily chart. PT $3.33 $KERN – Swing alert (weeks) growing nicely on the daily chart, but I wait for a pullback before making an entry. Long term PT $18.58 Sympathy/Related: #ACB, #TLRY #OGI #CGC #HEXO #CRON #APHA $ICG Energy Sector: $OPTT - Weekly trend about to change from bearish to bullish with significant volume increases week by week. PT: $8 short term, $18-20 longer term. $SPI - weekly chart bullish harami. Bullish pennant price action pattern. EMA200 $19.55 MACD crossed bullish. Daily chart hammebull pin bar impulse pullback Sympathy/Related:: #WWR #CBAT #PECK #PLUG #CLSK #FCEL #SUNW #AMTX #PEIX #TRCH $#ENG #SPI #WATT #ALAC #TRCH #OPTT #OEG BLM STOCKS: BLACK HISTORY MONTH Sympathy/Related #LMFA #IMTE #SALM #UONEK #CARV #BYFC $UNONE Biotechs: $OCGN – Swing alert (Weeks) huge volume coming in after the split. Base on my daily fibo chart $10.73. Sympathy/Related:: #ANVS #VXRT #AEZS #MBRX #SLS #CRMD #PRTA #VTVT #ALVR #PLRX #ARTL #GMDA #GRCL #TLSA #ATOS #IMNM #NKTX #AZRX #OCGN #SAVA #ADMS #SBBP #CNSP #AKER #SAVA #TTOO #AGEN TECHNICALS: $CNSL $RVPH – Both have double bottom with a hammer candle on Friday. $VISL – Huge volume on Friday. Continuation play PT $5 $BDR - this low float stock is weekly play. Typically spikes over $2 at least once a week and usually on Monday or Tuesday. 10-50%. $NAKD - Trend change and golden cross on the daily. Look for pullback to $.80 or so, then a push back to $2+ $CTRM - Over 25 million shares shorted on 1/15 that need to cover by tomorrow. Could be more powerful than the GME squeeze. Massive volume spike the past few weeks. First target $1, next target $2.69. $LMNL looks like it's time has come to start really retracing back to the teens. Bullish harami on weekly. 3 white soldier on the daily. Bull flag broke down for a DBR set up. 4hr set up for PM gapper. PT $5.96 then $6.99 for a break above $6.07 ~10-30%+ gainer Fib retracement levels 23.6% $11.19 / 38.2% $15.06 / 50.0% $18.19 / 61.8% $21.33 $ADMP - weekly chart showing extreme bullish confluence. bullish hammebull pin bar EMA6 bounce pattern/backtest old resistance as new support to maintain $1+ compliance. EMA200 $2.144 Daily chart fish hook pattern gap to 1.40 and 1.64 great chart set up for possible rockets. Backburners: ^WPRT ^PPBT ^MBII ^LAIX ^CLNE ^ELVT ^VRTV ^NAVB ^AAME ^VOR ^IMCR ^WHLR ^BOLT ^HTBX ^CLOV ^ABUS ^MRNA ^HGEN
Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks removed it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! -- This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios. I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
Here's the update, typed as he was talking, apologies if I missed anything. NO FURTHER SHUTDOWNS ANNOUNCED! Pause is EXTENDED through 1/15/2021.
Situation: We are at a critical point and here is why.
Encouraging news on vaccine: FDA granted emergency use. Western States panel approved.
First vaccine shipment on Monday, frontline healthcare workers to get immediate vaccination.
Did a test run for vaccine delivery process, will keep Nevadans posted.
Dr. Fauci predicted a surge on top of a surge, that's where Nevada is headed.
We are just now beginning to see the effects of the holidays. Small decline in cases and testing over the holiday, big surges now.
Seeing big increases in hospitalizations, 1700 Nevadans since Friday.
In Southern Nevada we have NOT peaked yet.
Protecting healthcare infrastructure is the main priority. Setting up hospitals in parking garages just in case.
No doubt our hospitals are seeing an increase in strain, as well as actual healthcare workers.
COVID deaths on the rise. 2539 Nevadans dead.
Statewide pause summary, talked about mitigation, capacity limits, etc.
As of November 30th, 74% Nevadans wore masks when leaving home. If we were at 95% compliance we would save more lives by Spring.
Noted that Nevadans are under stress, worried about health, jobs, school. Wants everyone to do what we can to reduce strain on hospitals.
EXTENDING CURRENT NEVADA PAUSE THROUGH JANUARY 15TH, NO ANNOUNCED SHUTDOWNS.
All current restrictions are still in place.
Sisolak says that if his health officials see cases rise more, he will shut more things down.
Sign an eviction moratorium in place tomorrow to protect Nevadans, through March 31st.
Better to leave Nevadans in homes versus in shelters and homelessness.
When people are evicted it becomes impossible to stay home, they will be forced outside and potentially spread COVID-19.
Talked about how tenants are still obligated to pay rent. Talked about rental assistance programs. Supported with federal assistance dollars, funds are low though.
Realizes this will be hard on landlords, asking landlords to continue to sacrifice and do more to help tenants. Promises to look into assistance for landlords.
Vaccine on the horizon, please continue to be strong. Fight the virus, not each other.
Says not a day goes by that he doesn't think about lives and our economic structure.
Acknowledges that we have record cases, but realizes that families are suffering, with little financing assistance.
Claims no winning options, picked whatever option hurts Nevadans the least.
Federal government has yet to grasp the complexity of our situation. Federal government says that states are not doing enough. Sisolak admits mitigation policies, our complete shutdown, would be best. However without funding and paying Nevadans to stay home, is not realistic. Says shutdowns don't work without people getting paid.
State is trying desperately to balance health and economy.
Families are teetering on the brink. We have lost 250,000 jobs, NV had highest unemployment rate in the country.
142,000 Nevadans have exhausted their UI benefits, won't be able to file again until March 2021, says NV needs more federal help.
State of Nevada had a savings account, a rainy day fund, which was their safety net. As of today, there is no more money. No more rainy day fund. CARES Act funding ends at the end of the year.
According to our state economist, another shutdown will put us in a just as bad or worse state than the Great Depression.
Says that if he could write a check to pay everyone, he would, but can't.
Gaming industry. Under the same or tougher restrictions as everyone else. Gaming Control Board is the most regulated business in the state.
When he thinks of the gaming industry, he loses sleep because under a state at home order, NV lost 250,000 jobs. Cooks, dealers, valet, entertainers, etc.
Gaming matters in this state. If we shut down again, state loses $52 million in tax revenue a month. That same revenue supports Nevadans, health, benefits, the safety we need. That's why he has kept the casinos open.
(Side note: so basically, casinos need to be open so that the state can fund UI and benefits for the State)
This week it was reported that NV has seen a 50% increase in opioid and drug death. Does not believe its a coincidence.
People won't be healthy if they lose their job, benefits, housing, etc.
Relied on the science and health officials to make decisions.
COVID-19 is the first and last thing he thinks about every day.
Praises healthcare workers for their sacrifices.
Says his blood boils when the federal government says that States do not do enough.
Says that everyone is stepping up, task force has gotten millions of masks and PPE. Had to do it themselves versus rely on the federal government.
Says federal government promised PPE, but help never came.
Invites McConnell to look at the hospital wards, foreclosed homes, to look at all affected Nevadans when he said citizens did not need the extra help.
Compromise is hard, but possible if both sides toss politics aside.
We must figure things out on our own, if not, more shutdowns will be forced.
Vaccine is on the way. Stay strong. Says he has made the best decision for our state all things considered.
Called upon all Nevadans to come together, again, to do this.
If we cannot control cases, he will impost further restrictions.
We are all frontline people, tired, worn out, ready to give up. We have a choice to think of things as every man for themselves, or to support each other and have each others backs.
Look after each other. Love our neighbors.
We face all challenges together. Nevada will make it through this. The end result will be based on how much we care for each other.
A Nevadan is testing positive every 40 seconds. 1 hour and 15 minutes a Nevadan dies.
Please, protect yourselves and one another by wearing a mask, washing hands, and socially distance.
William Eyelash had taken the lead in this match, and though as a leader, he hadn’t done the best job, getting Jack visibly injured, as a combatant, he had managed to withstand the aggressive and area-painting onslaughts of himself from not so long ago, and of a much more experienced version of the partner he’d once had. It had made him catch his breath, reflect on all that had come to this point, to recall that moment where Ocean Eyes had been the one to embrace and protect him. “Yes… I understand now,” William answered, walking carefully through the snow, “you had something good going there, Jacob Brown, but… Y-you didn’t seriously think I would fall for tricks like those coming from my own Stand, did you?” Didn’t even know it could do all that, though… Even now, I can still grow, huh? That put a smile on his face, then, as he approached the injured Jack, helping him up. “You still with us?” “Hee hee, I’ll peachy keen as peachy cream in a little while… But right now I’m very much hurting yes.” Jack chuckled, resting his eyes and looking things over. “In the end, though… I called that other me in the hoodie an impostor, but he knew my Stand better than I did. He was even more me than me… What does that mean?” He looked down. “Am… Am I the lie?” “I, uh… I don’t know how to answer that,” William said, “but… You’re one of the most genuine people I’ve ever met. And, uh… You helped me out a ton. Sorry for getting you hurt, uh, not that used to leading, but you really seemed to trust in me…” “We all make mistakes!” Jack said, not minding that at all, “but… I suppose you’re right. I won’t let some stranger get in my head… But I guess that all of us were telling the truth in our hearts, then.” He looked to the defeated ‘Billy’ and the slightly-older Jacob, both bleeding and unconscious, the latter falling much faster. Already, a strange white blob was moving through the snowfield towards them, examining them. “So I guess we spare them today... if they survive what we’ve given already!” Neither would realize it for another few minutes, but for Jacob Brown, those words had proven prophetic. “S-still though… If you’ve really lived a full life here, become the same person with the same Stand, same memories,” William said, “does that mean that can just… Happen? But how, wh-when really, by probability and stuff…” “So is the unusual burden of ‘Fate,’ felt strongest upon this city,” a familiar, altered voice spoke, and sitting on a park bench, William and Jack spied none other than the Institute’s head, still heavily layered as he always was. “Oh No…” William muttered. “‘Oh no?’ Is this a problem of a person?” Jack asked, then giggled. “Heeheh, just a little joke. I know about the Institute, of course!” “The ‘Fortuna Double’ might exist at any point in time, for any Stand User from outside its walls, and no matter how irreconcilable the circumstances, how ‘impossible’ it should be for two people to have the same fated path, even for the slight differences of the city… The ‘Same Person’ can unquestionably exist. Wouldn’t be surprised if you, ‘Jack,’ and this ‘Billy’ here were simply the first you encountered who were close enough to your age that you immediately noticed.” No tilted his head. “Why, even that cute creature who followed the elder Jacob Brown is, literally, the same being as the Bert that just died… Yet, unlike them, bound still by fate. I wonder, then, what will prove to be the same, to be indomitable ‘fate,’ and what will prove not so.” “I think sometimes about if I’ve ever had one here… Or will, in the future. That sounds utterly boring if so, though. I refuse to know my fate; it’s vexing enough of a limit on myself that I’m burdened by, knowing it’s predetermined to exist at all.” “Uh… Right.” This was heavy, huh? William tried to figure out what it all meant. “Fortuna Doubles, huh… So they’re both real, completely and absolutely, then?” “Precisely!” No remarked, cheerily. “Would you like to speak more about this? Go on, sit with me.” Only a few hours remain still in your window of time to vote in a match between an Agnes and some Guy in a crowded concert hall brought down to size. Scenario: Alexis Williams was sinking. Every day, the myriad of matters which plagued the outwardly-cheerful woman’s mind seemed to be growing worse and worse. The unhealthy relationship she’d had with her Stand had turned into an even worse sort of tension, a fundamental disconnect with an aspect of herself which she literally could not be away from. It hadn’t been uncommon for some time for her to wonder if a given day would be her last. Over the last several months, those feelings had only grown and grown in their intensity, in their power over her, and it had even begun to show outwardly. It wouldn’t be long now, surely, before- Alexis’ hotel room door was kicked so hard that one of the hinges flew off, and through it launched, not an attacker like she might have imagined, some hostile Stand User out to invade her home, but something arguably even worse. “ALEXIS!” Her friend and fellow Eighth Circle mainstay, Bucket. She clutched her forehead and forced a smile, turning away from what she’d been using to get through the day and towards him. Already, she could tell that the chaos agent, formerly known for the octopus on his head, now sporting sick sarashi and a pompadour, was here with intentions ranging from ‘good’ to ‘no intentions whatsoever,’ and it wasn’t in her nature to tell someone like that to fuck off. “Bucket! Hey!” She said, an edge to her chipper tone. “You, uh, surprised me there… You’re gonna fix that door, right?” She blinked. “Wait, weren’t you at that Metra show? I thought I’d heard everyone there was shrunk down to-” “Forget about that!” He answered, earnestly drawing closer, grasping her by the wrists suddenly, yet at once gently. “Alexis, I don’t know what’s going on with your head or heart or anything else, but I know I can’t just stand around outside your door watching you get more and more miserable! Even I noticed, so it must be really really bad whatever’s hurting you inside! I’m an acolyte of the boogie now, the example of Rudolf Pavlova, so I can’t let a friend be in need!” “Rudolf…” Alexis had heard of his passing, so soon after helping her put on such a wonderful show, and been unsurprised. Wait, though, since when did Bucket- Ah, never mind. She shook her head, looking him in the eye. The highly chaotic, unstable hellraiser of the Judecca Highrollers was giving her puppy-dog eyes. “Did… Did you want to do something?” “Yes! I want to make you better!” Bucket exclaimed, pulling away and bouncing upwards. “So c’mon! Let’s head out… Make some trouble, follow no rules but our own and to be happy!” He stopped, then, pulling back a moment, as if reading the room once again, folding his arms over his chest. “I mean, if you want to.” Alexis thought it over. He meant well, clearly, and wished dearly to cheer her up… A person didn’t need to understand the nuances of the soul to see when a person was hurting, and to reach out for them. She doubted it would make things better for her, but who’s to say it needed to be? “That sounds great,” she said, relaxing her forced cheer slightly and nodding. “Maybe it’s what I need right about now.” The Woods at Aurelio - Midday - Near the Northern Bridge “So you’re sure that he’s got a base out here?” “Crystal clear!” Tiger ‘Glitch’ Ricky answered Effie Linder, tilting her head one way and then the other as she and her Stand attempted to scope out the sounds of the area. “There was only basically one cop left and then Ugo made them quit, took the place over, paid them off… So now he just sorta comes and goes around that little old ‘empty’ police station!” “If he hangs out at the town’s police station,” Effie asked, confused at her coworker’s demeanor, “then why are we out this far away from it?” “Because!” Glitch answered, huffing and folding her arms. “I said he comes and goes! And prrobably isn’t there right now. Mrr, you’re the one who wanted to come out here with me, so let’s keep searching!” “…” Effie nodded. “You know what, fair enough. He never was the type to stay still long, so looking where the Watch is going would be a start…” Since that day she fought that shithead twink Agnes and that Italian twink Arpeggi at Tigran Sins’ casino, Glitch had been gradually, increasingly mulling over the idea of becoming something not so much unlike the latter… A vigilante, out to not just cause problems on purpose, but sometimes even solve them on purpose, in the way a Stand User knew best: shenanigans and violence. Hearing about the way that Ugo McBaise had sabotaged the capture of the very villains whose challenge had inspired her to act, had directly gotten people killed and responsible for dangerous people staying at large, that felt like reason plenty to break out ‘shenanigans and violence’ on him. Effie caught her on the way out, and had said then, “what, am I gonna wait around for Fira to send me on some bullshit errand? If you’re turning that piece of shit’s head concave, I’m in too.” And so, enthusiastically, Effie had joined, and the pair had been circling the outskirts of town atop Vida Loca ever since, Effie also using her murder of crows for further observations than what her eyes alone could tell her. Glitch’s ears perked, as did her Stand. “…something’s up ahead. A bunch of people hanging out by the river…” “Hm? Yeah, I think I see it!” Effie remarked, producing a pair of binoculars to look that way. “VALKYRIE guys… You know what that means up here, don’t you?” Though most of the company fell in line with Rushen Smith’s new leadership, it was something of an open secret that Ugo McBaise had very specifically drilled the former Neighborhood Watch, which had become a new unit of the company, into being loyal to him, not to his rank. Fears being stoked about the potential of ANVIL going to war with the town was all that kept them from being disbanded outright, feeling that people familiar with the area were best-suited for watching it. Glitch hissed. “Alright, then, you know what we’ve gotta do!” “Wait, it looks like they’re being talked through something by…” Effie adjusted the binoculars, peered through the crowd, and recognized a very identifiable vest… and a bald head, shining in the midday sun. “Mr. Jones?” Mr. Jones had been having a good few weeks himself, ever since his earlier, very successful outing with Dread. It had ended in him successfully acquiring not just any ‘Memento,’ but perhaps one of the city’s most dangerous, and the life-fearing compliance of the kidnapped alleged immortal who led it to him, taught him its secrets. Apparently some kitty somewhere was sad about that, but eh, when you’re making an omelette, yeah? “Wait wait wait,” he said affably to the crowd of VALKYRIE agents he’d once called a neighborhood watch, “you say a guy in a blue pomp and a dancer’ve been… Spray painting your cars? Throwin’ dead fish at ya? Sprayin’ ink to get away?” He snickered. “You’ve had a hell of a morning with this prankster pair, then, if they keep givin’ you the slip.” “Please, Mr. Jones,” a young man said as he continued to wipe fish guts off of his helmet visor, “I… I know, technically, you aren’t our leader anymore, that the bosses don’t like you much, but.” He sniffled, earnestly. “But you’ve always been so good to us, even since then! You’ve been loyal to us, and we still love you for it, no matter what they say you did!” “Heheh… Hearin’ you say that makes it worth it, y’know that?” Mr. Jones wiped a finger under the eye of his sunglasses, looking them over. “Think I know who might be the whodunnit-er here, actually. Just gimme a hot minute to track the guy down, and-” “Got a lot of nerve talking to my men, Jones.” Everyone went silent, then, at the sound of a hammer, for dramatic effect, being dragged along the pavement of the road, then swung in the air by an absolute cinderblock of a man. “You got a problem, and you come running to him because he happened to be passing by? What happened to using your damn heads?” Ugo chewed his subordinates out, then, before looking to the neighborhood watch founder. “I think you’ve confused these people, Worm, by still keeping up that paternal reliable neighbor shit. They’ve all been taught well and good that they listen to me, not some replacement,” he pointed his hammer forward, then, threateningly, “and sure as hell not some serial killing scum!” “Now now now, Ugo, c’mon, it’s clear they like us both, yeah? So let’s just… Clear the confusion up, if y’care that much!” Mr. Jones reached for the sabre sheathed at his side, then, drawing it with a golden sheen; he’d fished it out of the wreckage of Capital Island one day after it wasn’t destroyed in Jack’s ritual. He, too, pointed it forward. “I know the language you speak, so let’s talk in that.” Ugo grunted, then, swinging his hammer back over his shoulder as a very feminine form appeared behind him, looking like something of a curvy, thickset cowgirl. “Aw, Ugo and I concur, y’all know we’re down t’bash some heads and take a name or two! Why, sugar, we’re about to put you down like a sick dog!” Mr. Jones got a snicker out of the odd word choices of ‘She’s a Big Boy,’ finding the contrast between Stand and User in all but their brutal aggression amusing; sometimes he’d tried in the past to talk to him and unpack what the Stand actually said about Ugo’s soul, but it was a conversation the very straightforward, taciturn former football star never quite liked to have. Jones gestured with his head, then. “Watch, get back to HQ, yeah? Whoever you see walk through that door, few hours from now, respect that, yeah?” “Uh… S-sure?” The ex-Watch member who’d been speaking said, turning around. “C’mon, guys, let’s get pizza or something… I guess.” Alexis had been sitting by the bank of the Wormwood River, mulling over the shenanigans Bucket had encouraged her to join in with, ever since she’d happened to spot all the Watch members they’d been harassing seemingly surround somebody; it was an action which led Bucket to say ‘just gimme a minute’ before diving into the water. It was a shame, honestly. This harmless problem causing had actually been kind of fun, in a way. Bucket splashed up soon after. “I knew it!” “Knew what?” “There was this bald guy talking to all the VALKYRIE guys about all our awesome pranks, and then that no-good bastard Ugo showed up and they started slugging it out and moving towards a sewer grate. And then, you wouldn’t believe it… The bald guy turned into Conqueror Worm!” That gave Alexis pause, then. He was here? “We… We should probably go somewhere else, then! If people out there are fighting, I want no part in it whatsoever… And you probably shouldn’t anger guys like that either.” “I can’t just turn away from this, Alexis! I’m here to cheer you up, and that guy… When he helped kidnap you, that’s when you started to feel even worse! So, I’m going to roll up there, give him my fiercest look possible, and make him apologize for being mean to you.” That… Wasn’t where Alexis was expecting Bucket to end that sentence, but it made her sigh, momentarily. Her mood was good and ruined now anyway by these revelations, and Bucket was suggesting something dangerous nonetheless. “Look, Bucket, not everybody is good-natured, okay? You can’t just walk up to somebody and-” “But I will!” Bucket insisted, flexing. “Because I have the power of ‘the boogie’ on my side, don’t you get it? This will cheer you so far up! You don’t even need to come along if you don’t want, because I dunno I might punch Ugo a bit if he hits first! But either way, you will get your apology, I swear it!” Then, Bucket ran off. To confront two very dangerous brick shithouses of men. In a sewer. “He’s going to get himself killed…” Alexis felt awful now, standing and looking Southward. She could just leave, couldn’t she? Bucket even said he wasn’t expecting her to follow when it could turn into a fight… In the end, were humans not all fated to fall victim to their own mistakes, their own vices and eccentricities? …I can’t just leave a friend like that, even if I’m feeling bad. “Bucket!” Alexis called, beginning to run after him. “Wait up for me! I’m coming along too! Let’s… Get that apology!” She was having to babysit the guy who came to help her out, now, was that it? “Ghhgh, it’s a two-for-one special on the worst in the city, isn’t it?” Glitch complained, trailing Effie down a ladder into the sewers. “First we’re tailing Ugo, and then Mr. Jones, and now they’re fighting… I don’t even know who’s worse!” “One’s a serial killer, and yeah super dangerous,” Effie pointed out, “and the other keeps getting a lot of other people killed with his own dangerous stupidity… Keeps causing us problems, and helped escalate that warzone. I don’t like being an enemy of ANVIL, Glitch… I really don’t.” “Mmrhh… They’re gonna get a piece of our best attacks.” The pair, then, touched ground, and Effie saw around them the signs of battle, of pieces of the ground seemingly terraformed, nicked, busted-up, and the sounds of clashing in the distance. Undoubtedly them. Then, though, as they stepped forward, soon after, a pair literally dropped down behind them, one after the other, first a scarred, pompadoured idiot doing a cool roll, then a redheaded gymnast landing coolly not far behind. “Wait a minute… Bucket? And, uh, that performer from that thing everyone liked… Alexis Williams?” Effie remarked, backing away a bit, trying to figure out the pair’s intentions. “What are you doing here?” “Oh, you know!” Alexis tilted her head, very blatant in how forced the chipper tone had become, especially by the nature of what she’d said next. “Losing control of my life, letting weird things get out of hand… But I’m here now. I’ve committed to my choice, and I hear sounds further back. So, Bucket! Let’s get a move-on, yeah? I don’t particularly care much for being in a sewer…” Bucket, however, had been unmoving since he had begun to stand. Glitch, too, faced directly his way, allowing him to look her in the eye as a strange expression came over them both. Effie and Alexis, then, were deeply confused, until Vida Loca appeared, and the sounds of beatboxing seemed to fill the air. “Wh-” Effie was taken aback. “Glitch, we’ve got something going on here. You’re not seriously going to-” “Hey fishman, the cat’s here to catch ya / Tiger ‘Glitch’ Ricky on the mic comin’ atcha / In a hotel or a diner or even a sewer / My rhymes gonna run you through like a skewer!” This was physically painful for Alexis to watch. She covered her mouth as she prepared for Bucket to open his, well aware that half of their social circle was probably going to slap him for whatever came out. “Name’s Bucket, B-U-C-K-E-T / Got beat but came back now with the Boogie! / Was chasin’ a killer but this fish can still school you / With my friend Alexis here, my rhymes’ll hit true!” “…hit true?” Alexis couldn’t help but find that groan-inducingly hilarious, though her momentary joy, then, was cut short by the fact that Effie, meanwhile, was absolutely seething. “C’mon, do this literally any other time!” She exasperatedly proclaimed, tugging at Glitch’s arm, “we can’t let those assholes get away, c’mon, you know we need to cut this out and-” Bucket threw a fish at Effie’s face. Everyone went silent, then, as it slid off and hit the ground, her own expression dry with displeasure. “Did… Did you just throw a fish at me?” “Yeah! Because you keep ruining the vibes!” Bucket huffed. “So cut it the hell out, or I will do it again!” “Really now,” Effie said, keeping her hand by her slingshot and beginning to walk further Southward. “If you keep distracting us, I’ll have to get you out of our way.” One of Bucket’s massive knives, then, was drawn, blade resting centimeters from Effie’s face. “Don’t threaten me, alright? That’s completely against the spirit of this.” Glitch hissed, then, her own mood ruined, “hey! You can’t just pull a weapon on my friend like that, even if she’s being a spoilsport! That’s way over-the-line!” As both sides fell back, not losing sight of the other as they attempted to pull away and regroup, it was clear that three-fourths of the quartet had been angered enough at one another in an instant that a fight was about to brew. Alexis had been deliberately trying not to send out her Stand this entire time, wanting some semblance of mental distance from it after their disagreements had turned increasingly mean, her literal fighting with herself and grappling with her demons leaving her wanting absolutely none of this. Bucket was about to get himself killed over, easily, the stupidest thing she had ever seen a fight start over. This day has gone from sad to fun to the most frustrating I have ever seen… I tried to make a good day out of it, but here I am now. I can’t just abandon Bucket after he tried for me… But boy is he trying me. OPEN THE GAME! (Credit to CaptainSpooky27 for yet more awesome match art!) Location: One of Los Fortuna’s sewer pathways, specifically far on the Northwestern outskirts of the town of Aurelio. These are one of the many entrances to the elaborate and interconnected underground networks of the city, though you’re in a pretty straightforward section of it that doesn’t branch off all that many surprising ways. Not far South from here, but distant enough that it won’t ever affect this match, you can hear the sounds of a simultaneous battle between Mr. Jones and Ugo McBaise. The area here is 63 meters by 33 meters with each tile being 3 by 3 meters. With TGS on the left and JHR on the right, represented by their character tokens. The light grey tiles are the concrete paths, the darker grey tiles are the walls, and the blue tiles are sewer water. The walls are solid all the way through. The sewer itself is actually relatively clean here, as clean as underground sewer water can be really. The water level is about 1 foot below the walkways and the water is 3 meters deep. The ceiling is 4 meters above the walkways and the walkways have cheap metal guardrails between themselves and the water, as represented by the bolded outlines. The orange rectangles are the metal bridges between the walkways and the yellow circles are open manhole covers with light streaming through. The grey triangles are strange stalagmite-like protrusions, likely somehow created by Ugo and Jones’ fight. They match the same material as the stone walls, take up most of the walkway in width, and reach up to the ceiling. Goal: RETIRE your opponents! Additional Information: Logic is allowed to kill me(Kak) and both of the players who made me write this.
"Are you mocking me? You went into the ground with your zipper? Are you copying me?" This whole thing has gotten so absolutely lame, that it’s killed your attempts to cheer your friend up and to have an awesome rap battle. So these guys are lame, and need to feel it! Make sure to find creative ways for your strategy to humiliate your opponents!
“You think that you can escape my punches when you're surrounded by walls of dirt?” Bucket’s gotten people into another frustrating situation by not thinking, huh? Well, you’ll get him out of this in one piece by using your head. Use this underground sewer environment to your advantage!
“They say that sound reverberates better in liquids than in solids.” Seriously, Glitch? Seriously? Well, at least as long as you’re in this gnarly sewer, you can get something out of it by using your head. Use this underground sewer environment to your advantage!
"Do you think you stand a chance against me by going underground?!" So now you and your opponents are going to be trying to one-up each other, huh? Bucket is an immensely clownable guy, dammit, and you were so hyped to do so verbally… Make sure to find creative ways for your strategy to humiliate your opponents!
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Review of Martin Scorsese’s 1995 Casino [A mob movie that has many actors that will go on to be in the Sopranos].
mods please lmk if this violates the rules. i’m posting here because I write about the mob/casino and many relevant themes that are important elements of the Sopranos, in my opinion. I think they’re of the same medium and genre so wanted to post here. Hope that’s alright. Cheers! (11 min read) ———————————————————————— EDIT 2: TL;DR - Casino is a story of sexual and financial intrigue, mob violence, union pension fund embezzlement, a “love” story, and the protagonist's masochist addiction to the pain and chaos his lover inflicts on him. It turns out that the sharp-minded genius who meticulously runs the casino, is no more rational than the gamblers who routinely frequent the casino, coming back to lose their money and hoping that the odds will magically shift in their favor. ———————- Every good filmmaker makes the same movie over and over again—Martin Scorsese is no different Scorsese's Casino is a phenomenal story of the condoned chaos and "legalized robbery" that happens on a daily basis to gamblers who bett away thousands of dollars and return each day for more “FinDom,” but without any of the sexual sadism. The whole scam only persists because the house always wins: the odds are stacked 3 million to one on the slot machines, but the same shmucks return wide-eyed each day hoping for a different outcome, devoid of any rational re-evaluation required to maintain their grasp on reality, and the liquidity of their bank accounts. Casino is a story of sexual and financial intrigue, mob violence, union pension fund embezzlement, a “love” story, and the protagonist's masochist addiction to the pain and chaos his lover inflicts on him. It turns out that the sharp-minded genius who meticulously runs the casino, is no more rational than the gamblers who routinely frequent the casino, coming back to lose their money and hoping that the odds will magically shift in their favor. Robert De Niro plays Sam "Ace" Rothstein, recruited by his childhood friend Nick "Nicky" Santorno to help run the Tangiers casino, which is funded by an investment made with the Teamsters’ pension fund. Ace’s job is to keep the bottom line flowing so that the Mafia's skimming operation can continue seamlessly. De Niro's character felt like half-way between Travis from Taxi Driver (of course, nowhere as mentally disturbed) and half of the addictive excess, greed, and eccentric business-mind of Jordan Belfort in The Wolf of Wall Street. Ace’s attention to detail gives him a rain-man-esque sensibility; his ability to see every scam, trick, hand signal, and maneuver happening on the casino floor make him the perfect manager of the casino, and take his managerial style to authoritarian heights in his pursuit of order and control over what is an inherently unstable and dynamic scheme; betting, hedging outcomes, and walking the line to keep the money flowing and the gamblers coming back. I’m not claiming Ace is autistic, I'm no clinician, but his managerial sensibilities over the daily operations of the casino, from the dealers to the pit bosses, to the shift managers, are to the point of disturbing precision, he has eyes everywhere, and knows how to remove belligerent customers with class and professionalism, but ultimately is short sighted in “reading” the human beings he is in relationship with. Ace is frustratingly naive and gullible in his partnership with Nicky and the threat he poses to him, and in his marriage with Ginger. Ace has no personal aspirations to extract millions of dollars for himself out of the casino corruption venture. Ace simply wants the casino to operate as efficiently as possible, and he has no qualms about being a pawn of the bosses. While Sam, “the Golden Jew”—as he is called—is the real CEO of the whole enterprise, directing things at Tangiers for the benefit of the bosses “back home.” Ace’s compliance is juxtaposed with Nicky’s outrage upon feeling used: he gripes about how he is in “the trenches” while the bosses sit back and do nothing. Note that none of the activity Nicky engages in outside of the casino—doing the work of “taking Las Vegas over”—is authorized by the bosses. Ultimately Nicky’s inability to exert control over his crew and the street lead to his demise. In the end, capitalism, and all that happens in the confines of the casino, is nothing but “organized violence.” Sound familiar? The mob has a capitalist structure in its organization and hierarchy: muscle men collect and send money back to the bosses who do not labor tirelessly “in the trenches.” The labor of the collectors is exploited to create the profits of their bosses. The entire business-model of the Mafia is predicated on usury and debtors defaulting on loans for which the repayment is only guaranteed by the threat of violence. But this dynamic is not without its internal contradictions and tensions, as seen in Casino. In a comedic turn, the skimmers get skimmed! The bosses begin to notice the thinning of the envelopes and lighter and lighter suitcases being brought from the casino to Kansas City, “back home”. The situation continues to spin out of control, but a mid-tier mafioso articulates the careful balance required for the skimming operation to carry on: to keep the skimming operation functioning, the skimmers need to be kept loyal and happy. It’s a price the bosses have to pay to maintain the operation, “leakage” in their terms. Ace’s efficient management and precision in maintaining order within Tangiers is crucial for the money to keep flowing. But Ace’s control over the casino slips more and more as the movie progresses. We see this as the direct result of Nicky’s ascendance as mob kingpin in Vegas, the chaos he creates cannot be contained and disrupts the profits and delicate dynamics that keep the scam running. Of course I can’t help myself here! We should view Scorsese’s discography, and the many portrayals of capitalist excess not as celebratory fetishization, but a critique of the greed and violence he so masterfully captures on film. See the Wolf of Wall Street for its tale of money as the most dangerous drug of them all, and the alienation—social and political—showcased in Taxi Driver. Scorsese uses the mob as a foil to the casino to attack the supposed monopoly the casino holds on legitimate, legal economic activity that rests on institutionalized theft. When juxtaposed with the logic of organized crime, we begin to see that the two—Ace and Nick—are not so different after all. The only dividing line between the casino and organized crime is the law. Vegas is a lawless town yes, “the Wild West” as Nicky puts it, but there are laws in Vegas. The corruption of the political establishment and ruling elites is demonstrated when they pressure Ace to re-hire an incompetent employee who he fired for his complicity in a cheating scam or his stupidity in letting the slot machines get rigged; nepotism breeds mediocrity. In the end, Ace’s fall is the result of the rent-seeking behavior that the Vegas ruling class wields to influence the gaming board to not even permit Ace a fair hearing for his gaming license, which would’ve given him the lawful authority to officially run Tangiers. The elites use the political apparatus of the State to resist the new gang in town, the warring faction of mob-affiliated casino capitalists. While the mob’s only weapon to employ is that of violence. The mafia is still subservient to the powers that be within the political and economic establishment of Vegas, and they’re told “this is not your town.” I’d like to make the most salient claim of this entire review now. Casino is a western film. The frontier of the Wild West is Vegas in this case, where the disorder of the mob wreaks havoc on, an until then, an “untapped market.” The investment scheme that the Teamsters pension fund is exploited for as seed capital, is an attempt to remain in the confines of the law while extracting as much value as possible through illegal and corrupt means for the capitalist class of the mob (and the ultimately dispensable union president). Tangiers exists in the liminal space of condoned economic activity as a legal and otherwise standard casino. While the violence required to maintain the operation, corrupts the legal legitimacy it never fully enjoyed from the beginning. This mirrors the bounty economy of the West and the out-sourcing of the law and the execution of the law, to bounty hunters. There is no real authority out in the frontier, the killer outlaw on the run is not so different from the bounty hunter who enjoys his livelihood by hunting down the killers. Yet, he himself is not the State. The wide-lens frame of Ace and Nicky meeting in the desert felt like a direct homage to the iconic image of the Western standoff. The conflict between Ace and Nick, the enforcer and the mastermind, is an approximation of the conflicts we might see in John Wayne’s films. The casino venture itself could be seen as an analogy of the frontier-venturism of railroad pioneers going to lay track to develop the West into a more industrial region. I would have believed that this was a documentary about how the mob took over control of the Vegas casinos in the 1970-80s … if it were not for the viewer being expected to believe that Robert De Niro could play a Jew; it's hard to believe a man with that accent and the roles he’s played his entire career could be a “CRAZY JEW FUCK!!” I kid! But alas, De Niro is a class act and the last of the many greats of a bygone era. At times, it felt like Joe Pesci lacked talent as an actor, but his portrayal of the scummy, backstabbing bastard in Nicky was genuinely remarkable, but I might consider his performance the weak point of the movie. It’s weird to see a man that short, be that much of physical menace. There are a number of Sopranos actors in Casino. I’m sure Vincent Chase watched the movie and said to himself, “bet, i’ll cast half of these guys.”The set design and costumes were gorgeous. The styles and fashion of the time were spectacular. Scorsese’s signature gratuitous violence featured prominently, but tastefully. The camera work, tracking shots through the casino and spatial movement was incredible and I thought the cinematography was outstanding, the Western-esque wide lens in the desert was worthy of being a framed still. The Nicky//Ace dynamic is excellent and the two play off of each other well. The conflict between the two of them escalates gradually, and then Nicky’s betrayal of Ace by cheating with Ginger marks the final break between the two of them. Nicky’s mob faculties represent a brutal, violent theft that is illegal and requires the enforcement of violence by organized crime. Despite the illegal embezzlement and corruption at play with the “skimming” operation at work at the casino, the general business model of the casino stands in contrast to the obscene violence of the loan sharks. Ace operates an intelligent operation of theft through the casino, and his hands-on management approach is instrumental to the success of the casino. Nicky’s chaos pervades the casino, and the life and activities of “the street” begin to bleed into Ace’s ability to maintain order in the casino. “Connected” types begin frequenting the casino, and Ace unknowingly forces one particularly rude gambler to leave the casino, who happens to have mob ties with Nicky. The “organized violence” of the casino cannot stay intact perfectly, because the very thing holding it together is the presence of the mob. Nicky is in Vegas as the enforcer and tasked with protecting Ace but his independent, entrepreneurial (shall we call them?) aspirations lead him to attempt to overtake what he realizes is a frontier for organized crime to brutalize and exploit the characters of “the street” (pimps, players, addicts, dealers, and prostitutes) and the owners of small private businesses. Nicky is reckless, “when i plant my flag out here you won’t need your [casino/gaming] license” Nicky thinks he, and Ace, can bypass the regulations and bureaucratic legal measures by sheer force of violence alone. But ultimately Nicky is shortsighted and doesn’t have a real attachment to the success of the casino. After all, he isn’t getting profits from it (or much anyway) and isn’t permitted to play a real, active role in its daily functions because of his belligerent, untamed personality. Nicky has no buy-in that would motivate him to follow the rules or to work within the legal parts of the economy, it’s not the game he knows how to play, and win. All that he is loyal to, or deferent too, is the bosses back home; for whom he maintains absolute, uncompromising loyalty to, but still holds intense spite for. And now to the more compelling element of the narrative. Sam “Ace” Rothstein is positioned as remarkably intelligent, he makes informed decisions that aid in his skill as a gambler, he can read people to determine whether he’s being conned, he has an attention to detail—aided by the casino’s surveillance apparatus which monitors cheating—that is almost unbelievable. Ace knows when he’s being cheated, he knows how to rig the game so that the house always wins, enacting psychological warfare to break down the confidence of would be proficient gamblers, who could threaten Tangiers’ bottom line. But in the end, the greatest gamble Ace makes is his marriage to Ginger. Ginger is the seductive, charismatic, and flirtatious madame who makes her money with tricks and her sexual power. Ginger works as a prostitute, seducing men, and extracting everything she can, almost as a sort of sexual-financial vampirism. Ginger is the bad bet Ace can’t stop making even when she destroys his life, her own, and puts their daughter Amy in harm’s way. Ginger is the gamble Ace made wrong, but he keeps going back to her every time, trying to rationalize how she might change and be different the next time. Ace is not a victim to Ginger’s antics. Ginger makes it clear who she is: an addict, alcoholic, manic shopaholic who will use all of her powers to extract everything she can from everyone around her. She uses everyone to her advantage and manipulates men with her sexual power in exchange for their money and protection. Ginger had a price for her hand in marriage: $1 million in cash and $1 million worth of jewelry that are left to her and her alone as a sort of emergency fund. Ace’s numerous attempts to buy Ginger’s love—and the clear fact that no matter how expensive the fur coat and how grand the mansion, none of it would ever be enough to satisfy her—mirrored Jordan Belfort’s relationship with Naomi in The Wolf of Wall Street. Both relationships carried the same manic volatility and conflict over child custody was found in both films, with the roles reversed in the respective films. Ginger may be irredeemable and a pathological liar, but Ace can’t claim that she wasn’t clear with him; when he asked her to marry him, Ginger said she didn’t love Ace. Ace replied that love could be “developed” but required a foundation of trust to develop. That trust was never there to begin with. The love was doomed from the start to destroy the two of them; two addicts, two gamblers, lying on a daily basis to one another and themselves about reality to justify their respective existences, the marriage, and Ace’s livelihood. And as Ginger pointed out, “I should have never married him. He’s a gemini, a triple gemini … a snake” Maybe astrology has some truth to it after all. Now I’m not licensed (but hey neither was Ace, and he ran a casino empire!), but Ginger has the inklings of a borderline personality: her manic depression, narcissism, drug and alcohol abuse, and constant begging for forgiveness all seem indications of a larger psychological disorder at play. In the end, Ginger runs away with all the money Ace left her and finds her people in Los Angeles, the pimps, whores, and addicts she fits in with, in turn exploit and kill her for 3 grand in mint coins by giving her a ‘hot’ dose. Overall, Casino is an incredible cinematic experience. I highly recommend watching this and seeing it as part of Scorsese's anthology of commentary on our economic system and its human victims. I’d argue that Casino, Wolf of Wall Street, and The Irishman all fit together nicely into a trilogy of the Scorsesean history of finance and corruption from the 70s to the 90s. ————- EDIT 2: TL;DR — Casino is a story of sexual and financial intrigue, mob violence, union pension fund embezzlement, a “love” story, and the protagonist's masochist addiction to the pain and chaos his lover inflicts on him. It turns out that the sharp-minded genius who meticulously runs the casino, is no more rational than the gamblers who routinely frequent the casino, coming back to lose their money and hoping that the odds will magically shift in their favor.
EVRI: The True Autists Gambling Ticker Alright dipshits, I believe I have found a ticker that has huge growth potential over the next few months that is under the radar of many. So prepare your smooth brains and tell your wife's boyfriend to leave the room so you can jerk off to these potential gains. EVRI is Everi Holdings Inc. Don’t know what that is? They’re only “the casino industry’s only single source provider of robust payments solutions, vital intelligence offerings, and engaging gaming machines that power the casino floor” according to Casino Vendors (Source: http://www.casinovendors.com/vendoeveri-holdings-inc/) Now if that doesn’t make your wife’s boyfriend cream his jeans, then the following information might just make your dick hard enough to satisfy your displeasured wife. I think that EVRI could see huge growth for the following reasons EVRI has the versatility both online and on the floor for casinos Taking a look at this source (http://www.casinovendors.com/vendoeveri-holdings-inc/) you can see that there products and services include…
Gaming equipment and supplies: “Everi Games feature exciting original concepts, dynamic artwork, and thrilling game play that are designed to stop patrons in their tracks. Players seek out Everi’s award-winning games, cabinets, and toppers, and stream into casinos to play TournEvent® and TournEvent of Champions®”
Cash/Chips/Money/Money Handling Equipment: “CashClub® gives operators an easy-to-use single dashboard interface that streamlines check warranties and credit/debit card transaction processing. The software’s enhanced features include electronic signature capture and dynamic currency conversion. CashClub interfaces with Everi Compliance, which helps casinos meet Title 31 requirements. CashClub works with a casino operator’s existing cage workstation equipment, removing the need for a separate stand-alone terminal.”
“CentralCredit™ - The industry’s leading repository for casino-related credit data and reporting. QuikMarketing™ - This tool lays the foundation for highly targeted, cost-effective, and successful direct marketing campaigns.” and… “Intuitive, flexible & designed Kiosks to provide a premium experience to patrons.”
Administration and Finance: “Everi Compliance™ has new and innovative compliance products expanding our ability to service patrons and casino customers. Our compliance products are the gold standard for Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance across the gaming industry, which allows operators to easily meet Title 31 regulatory requirements.”
To see even more versatility and see what more specific services they provide, click this link https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EVRI/profile?p=EVRI Based off of these services alone, any one of you extra-chromosomes gamblers can see why EVRI is able to make money both online and on the floor, physical casinos. They make online gambling games, provide systems to protect casinos, design on the floor games, have products to transfer money in and out of debit/credit cards at the casino to feed the gambler, and even have business in reporting casino data and marketing campaigns. IF THIS ISN'T A COMPANY THAT DOESN'T DO EVERYTHING THEN IDK WHAT TO TELL YOUR SMOOTH BRAIN. They are immune to COVID and can be profitable with/without it. EVRI has great target prices from analysts and even has potential news coming up that can propel us Valhalla https://www.casino.org/news/everi-soars-on-digital-wallet-deal-with-winstar-casino/ “But Roth Capital analyst David Bain previously said two agreements with tribal operators notched by Everi account for 15 percent of the company’s fintech business and were going overlooked by investors.” This made the price target shift from $20 to $21 for this guy. This same article said this about David Bain as well “Today’s surge by Everi stock may not be a one-off event. Bain, the Roth Capital analyst, says another customer will roll out CashClub Wallet in the coming weeks. He didn’t identify that operator, but he did say it’s one of the largest casino firms in the world. The analyst adds that on a standalone basis, Everi’s fintech basis is worth $16 a share. When accounting for peer average multiples on gaming device suppliers,the stock could trade near $29, or more than double where it resides today.” I know some you have a hard time reading, but that means we could see news of EVRI’s own product (CashClub) be announced to be integrated in one of the largest casinos companies in the world. If that doesn’t scream PUMP, I don't know what does EVRI also has fantastic news of expanding, incorporating, and even being recognized as the best in their field Refer to this link on EVRI’s website with their Investors Information. You can scroll for minutes and find positive information everywhere including but not limited to. Everi Wins Best Slot Product and Best Consumer-Service Technology Awards for Second Consecutive Year from Global Gaming Business Everi Highlights Roadmap for Cashless Gaming Industry Leadership Golden Nugget Celebrates Its #777th Game on the Seventh Anniversary of nj-casino.goldennuggetcasino.com with the Launch of a Unique Custom Game Designed By Everi Everi’s CashClub Wallet™ Launches at WinStar World Casino and Resort Everi Digital Expands Relationship with Parx Casino, Delivering Additional Player-Preferred Slot Content for Online Real-Money Play in New Jersey EVRI’s option chain are cheap for long dated calls Because I am writing this after hours, the options chain will most likely change come market open, but keep in mind, they will still be cheap. Looking at January 20c and March 22.5c, they are .18 with a .05-.3 bid/spread and .2-.25. Yeah yeah yeah, I know what you’re thinking “oH tHE BiD aSK SpREad is TOO wIdE”. But if you guys seriously think the bid/ask spread is what has limited your autistic trades up to this point, then you’re just lying to yourself. Get your order filled, because were making fucking tendies. THE MEME POTENTIAL OF THIS STOCK IS PERFECT FOR US RETARDS Is there anything that is more ironic than a bunch of degenerate gamblers gambling on a gambling company that is so revered in the gambling industry that it’s not even a gamble? FUCK NO THERE’S NOT. WE ARE MADE FOR THIS TICKER, AND AS AUTISTS AND GAMBLERS WE NEED THIS PLAY. As many of you know, once a ticker catches fire in this sub it gets HUGE coverage. Look for yourselves at the countless memes and videos of WSB getting coverage on Cramers shows and news outlets. MEMES MEAN MORE ADVERTISING, MEANS MORE PUMPS, MEANS MORE TENDIES, WHICH MEANS MORE MONEY FOR DICK PUMPS. I rest my case. TLDR; EVRi is a fucking powerhouse in the online/in-person gambling/casino world. They have lots of news going for them along with having cheap calls, a well run business with great price targets, good price action movement, and most importantly infinite meme potential POSITIONS: 20 Contracts of Jan/15/2021 20c 15 Contracts of Ma19/2021 22.5c
Not just another HITI / HITIF post... Serious DD incl. valuation analysis
Reposting this DD after it was removed by mods first time around. Potential offending points have been removed. --- Some of the market stats are a little outdated (market cap, current multiples, etc.) but are correct as of Feb-06. This was originally written for another purpose. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the other purpose, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, however, High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more TLDR
Despite the recent rally in stock price, the business remains undervalued on a relative basis versus its peers (analysis in body of post). There is a compelling investment case for High Tide where in my opinion the merits of the investment outweigh the risks. Clearly given the small cap nature of the stock, this is inherently more volatile than larger blue chip stocks and carries with it a degree of risk.
Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks deleted it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! Hope this is OK for the mods here? -- This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios. I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
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