https://preview.redd.it/sl52k3krr1241.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=afc336e0639a9e319d040be1232683e733601e79 submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] MNF and Thanksgiving Recap Singles: 0-2 (-2.5u): Boy was I off here. I doubted the Raven's offense and they showed me! Marcus Peter's did exactly the opposite of what I hoped for and we payed for it by losing all our MNF plays. Parlay: 0-0 (0u): BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) Man this sucks. We lost a free bet here that I feel really confident is going to hit every game except the one it lost (the rams) Thats ok, big wins incoming! SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u) None Teasers: 0-1 (-3.3u) Oooooof. Thanksgiving Recap: Ok. I am reaaaaalllly sorry I didnt post anything before the Thanksgiving games. I was rather busy and didn't have time to do a write up or post my picks. Unfortunately for you guys, you missed out on a big day by me. Not only did I pick every game correctly, I picked the totals all correctly too!! To top it off, Sugarhouse ran a Thanksgiving Day reload bonus and I got 10u worth of free bets there and Draftkings gave everyone a 0.5u free bet just for logging on and opting in. I Took my DK free bet and through it on a huge SBBDLS that had the bills ml and the under, and the saints ml and the under and is still alive. I broke my SH free bet up and placed it on a few different wagers. The first was Galloday and Robinson to get 60+ yards and a TD @ 20-1. This hit, netting us a 42u return! The second is I put it on a parlay and a BBDLS, both which are still live!!! Some big sweats for this weekend! :D Note: I did not include any of my winnings from Thanksgiving in my win/loss number. The bets weren't posted, so they dont count! :D Sunday Games Green Bay @ New York Giants (+6.5): What a great game to start of the Sunday slate. I am so confused looking at this one. My algo has this game 26-24 GB with NYG PK as the generated spread. The total it generated was 48.5. First, looking at the total...I know its early in the week, but 2 out of 3 tickets are on the over yet the total has dropped from 47 open to 45/44.5 in most places...I looked into this because I was going to be on the over but this RLM has me confused. (The only reason I can see for the total moving down the way it has is the predicted cold weather, rain, and possible snow on Sunday) The second thing to look at is the spread. This year, the Packers are 3-2 OTR and Rodgers has played notably worse scoring 11 or less in 3 of those games (winning vs. the Bears 10-3) and he has scored an average of almost 5 points less OTR than when at home. He has protected the ball well though, throwing 0 picks on the road this year, to only 6 TDs, in 5 games OTR. So far I am quite torn. I was leaning Giants and the over and I was going to look at props all around. This RLM on the total and the weather uncertainty has me looking to back the dog or stay away. If I check Sunday morning and the weather has calmed down, I will look to take the over and props on: Saquan (rush attempts and receptions): I can't imagine the Giant have much more of a game plan then keep trying to wake up the beast that is Barkley. GB is horrible this year against the rush giving up 4.8 ypc on the season. Even if there is bad weather, I may still look at Barkley's rush attempts. (Bad weather should lead to more hand offs) Kayden Smith (Receptions) Against the pass they aren't much better, giving up one of the highest YPA percentages in the league. Both Golden Tate and Evan Engram are out for this game, so I expect Smith to have some extra looks as he fills in at TE. (Last week filling in for Engram he had 5 catches on 6 targets and before that game he had 1 catch on 1 target...all season) Devante Adams (Receptions and yards). I mean, he is back and healthy. Rodgers doesn't really have another reliable receiving option and they are facing one of the worst secondary's in the league. Rain or shine, if his total is 6.5, I am rocking the over. If it is 7.5 and (+) I will consider. Extra note: Packer right Tackle Bryan Bulaga might be sitting. If he does, I really lean NY and the points and look out for Golden to get a Sack if you have that prop. So be sure to check his status and the weather status before making any hard bets on this one. Washington @ Carolina(-10): This is another interesting one. My algo has this CAR -7 and 44.5. Vegas has really pushed this one up there in the spread, and dropped in the total. I'd say the reason for the adjustment is the matchup and the context of the match up. The context is obvious, Washington is out of the playoffs and Carolina is mostly out, but they still have an outside shot with winning out and some luck. There are two key matchups and both favor Carolina. The first is CMC vs the Redskins rush D that has given up the 10th most rec yards to RBS. The second match up is rookie QB Haskins vs. one of the best pass rushes in the league. In the last 4 games (all of which Haskins played some or the entire game) the Redskins have scored 9, 9, 17 and 19 with both 9s coming on the road. Short of a D/ST score or a random breakout from a Redskins RB, I dont see them scoring in this game. San Francisco @ Baltimore(-5.5): Ooooo Weeeee! What do we have here?! In possibly one of the best regular season weekends of the year this is a potential Superbowl match up. The weather is predicted as 100% rain. This is reflected in the totals. With the high chance of crappy weather I dont think I can touch this game. Also, my algo has this as only BAL- 2 so I really dont wanna put to much action on this game. Tennessee @ Indianapolis(-2): Continuing in the weekend of exciting match ups we have a fantastic divisional game here. The winner gets a shot at a wild card spot while the loser most likely fades into the wind. I understand the opening line because my algo spit out 21-20 Colts with a line of -3. However, these teams seem to be trending in the opposite direction. IND struggled in October going 1-3 SU with a home loss vs. the Dolphins. TEN however, has going 4-1 since Tannehill took over at QB with a win over the Chiefs! Honestly to me, this comes down to TY Hilton. The Colts looked great when they had a number 1 to stretch the field and make big plays. But without him, they just dont run the offense as well. (Also, I am pretty sure the Colts next option, Ebron, is out as well) Philadelphia @ Miami(+10): Both are coming off losses. Miami players are playing for next years contracts. Philly is playing to compete with Dallas for the spot of division leader with a .500 or less record :X I can honestly lean both ways here and just like last weekend, I think the most important factor will be PHL injuries. If both starting tackles are out again and the majority of PHLs WRs are out again, who to and how is Wentz gonna throw the ball? However if the philly WRs return, Miami is one of the WORST all around defenses by DVOA and can easily give up 30 points... I lean PHL to win, but don't favor either side enough to single them. If I am gonna look at any props in this game, just as it has been since Fitzmagic came back, Im gonna look Devante Parker. Fitzy has targeted him at least 6 times in each of those games, targeting him 10 or more in 4 of those 6. Extra Note: Nick Raffoul "The Dolphins are down to two healthy receivers. Jakeem Grant was put on injured reserve Wednesday, and Albert Wilson has a rib injury that causes him discomfort and is uncertain to play Sunday. That will put added pressure on DeVante Parker and Allen Hurns to carry the offensive load. " Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville(+2.5): Here we have one of the biggest line movements of the week. This opened as high as JAX -4.5 and has moved in most places to JAX +2/2.5. I really don't understand this much movement and pubic support on the Bucs. I mean, sure TB won last week as a dog, and Jacksonville is 0-2 over their last 2 games starting Nick Foles, but almost a TD swing with no significant injury news...? My algo has this 23-25 Jacksonville so I really dont understand the move. Jacksonville sucks vs. the run, but TB doesn't have a run game. Jacksonville is meh against the pass so I can see the TB WRs having opportunity. TB is LEGIT against the run, so stopping Fournette seems reasonable. But, TB is the second worse pass D in the league. If Foles is gonna put up a fight for this job he just got paid 88 million to go 0-3 for, this defense is a great opportunity to start! NY Jets @ Cincinnati(+3): First off I am so mad at this game. I put the Jets in all my parlays on Thanksgiving under the assumption that the Bengals were letting their rookie QB gain some experience points. However, now I find out Dalton will be under center as the Bengals try to throw everything they can at the league to avoid going win less. I still lean Jets as now they are healthy and just cruising on offense and they are going up against the Bengals D that hasn't really given any trouble to anyone. However, even though they were losing, I was still a fan of Dalton's competitive effort each game. Seeing him come back really hurts my lean on the Jets and it's possible you see me throw in some CIN into a parlay to balance the early week bets. Statistically there isn't much to say here. We all know how bad the Bengals have played, they haven't won a game. As for the Jets they had their share of problems in the first half of the season, but are looking to finish strong. If I look at props, it's gonna be Bell for the Jets as they have one of the worst run defense. If I look at any Bengals it would have to be Tyler Boyd receptions. When Dalton was in, he was the main option for targets. Cleveland @ Pittsburgh(+2): Along with the above game, this game has me the most worried as the week progressed. This is a huge game for both teams that can have major wild card implications. I was all happy to take Cleveland to continue there shot at zero to hero glory. This game opened up at PIT -3 and has flipped all the way to the other side and now sits CLE -2 in most places. The big news is PIT will again be changing QBs. Duckman came in and sparked PIT over CLE last week and the Steeler org is hoping he can do it again this week. While he did spark the Steelers to a win, he completed less than 50% of his passes in that game. The Steelers will again be without Conner or Juju. There defense is pretty good so I expect Chubb to have trouble. To be honest, Kareem Hunt might be in line for a big spot. He is making a case as a RB to be the number 3 reciever for CLE. I am still leaning CLE in this spot but most times there has been a QB change this year the new QB has out performed the spread. LA Rams @ Arizona(+3): What is big news right now is if Kyler Murray is going to play. He looked good in practice all week, but apparently tweaked his hammy and is Questionable now. If he sits I dont even know who the backup is to give him a chance. If he is healthy and plays, I find it hard not to take the 3 points here. Statswise, LA has the edge. In fact, they are playing better on the road this year than at home. (however, that could just be because of match up imbalance) My algo is giving me a spread of LA -5. Even so, with the demoralizing blowout the suffered last week that really diminished their playoff chances, I am not sure they can get up for this game. If Chandler Jones can get to Goff and Kyler Murray is healthy....wooo weee Oakland @ Kansas City(-10): Welp, another divisional game here. The Raiders shit the bed last week and only put up 3 points against the Jets. Kansas City is coming out of the last bye week for anyone rested and ready to go. What really gets me here is even though KC offensive players have had 2 weeks to rest for this game, that doesnt change the fact that KCs biggest weakness is their run defense. Combine that with OAKs greatest strength...Josh Jacobs...and I cant see how this line is so big. We have already seen the Colts and Texans take down the Chiefs in Arrowhead this year just by using a great run game. I can see Gruden looking to attack the same strategy. LA Chargers @ Denver(+3.5): Both teams coming off back to back losses. Another divisional battle. This one sees a QB that looks to be at the end of his career vs... well we dont know yet. DEN is still undecided at the QB position. It is either going to be Allen who struggled last week against the Bills, or Lock, a 2nd round draft pick. Honestly, I dont think the QB matters. DEN is going to play to their strengths which is sound defense and pound the two RBs. My algo has his as DEN -1 Total 37. Neither team has any playoff incentive to win and every loss helps their draft stock. With no heavy lean, I'd say there is value in the Denver with the points at home. New England @ Houston(+3): Imagine a day filled with divisional battles, playoff implications, potential Superbowl and Conference championship match up previews...THEN, to end the day you have two of the top AFC teams facing off that could be a preview of a playoff match up. That is what we have today. This game is important for playoff seating not much for the Texans, but if the Patriots lose, it puts them in line with BAL for 1st in the AFC with BAL holding the tiebreaker. My algo has this as NE -2. I expect NE to put up more then the last few weeks, first off they will be indoors. Second, they are facing the Texans D that is one of the worst vs. QBs. The big question mark in this one is the 17 or so players that came down with a sickness for NE. The one thing I am comfortable taking in this game is Watsons rushing yards. Not that hes that big of a threat, but NE has had trouble containing the rush with mobile QBs this year. Singles 89-84-3 (+33.08u)
FYI, I went a little ham this week on the parlays. Lets see if ham goes well with Turkey? :D Parlays: 5-8 (+43.9u)
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